Graham Cunningham: The final 20 big questions

Sportinglife.com bids farewell to regular contributor Graham Cunningham this week. The former C4 and RUK analyst is heading for a new challenge but looks forward to Cheltenham and reflects on other issues in his final ‘20 Questions’ feature.

 I’m off to Hong Kong to take up a role as advisor to the Racing Club. 

http://racingclub.hkjc.com/en/

The club was set up in 2007 to help young HK racing enthusiasts learn as much as possible about all aspects of racing in some of the best racecourse facilities on the planet.

It now has over 1,200 members (along with four horses racing in its colours) and from March 1st it’s my job to ensure they increase their knowledge of the sport and betting while enjoying their racing experience to the maximum.

Former jump jockey Mark Richards held the role in the club’s early days, while ex-Coral PR stalwart Wally Pyrah has carried the baton in recent years.

I suspect they might be big shoes to fill but it’s a fascinating new challenge in one of the world’s most colourful cities.

But would you be moving if Channel 4 had retained the terrestrial TV contract?

Now that’s a fascinating question – and a very tricky one to answer.

I passed on an offer from Los Angeles to take the C4 gig in 2013 and, despite the odd grumble from my other half, never regretted that decision for a moment.

 In short, working for that C4 team has been the highlight of my career.

True, it came with constant heat as some scribblers – led with gusto by a Racing Post orchestra conducted by Lee Mottershead with the Guardian’s Chris Cook providing enthusiastic backing vocals - homed in on reduced ratings. 

The fact they did so with a straight face without ever mentioning the fact that their own numbers have been heading south for donkey’s years hardly came as a shock.

Still, that’s the game we work in. What I will say is that four years with a talented C4 team who kept aiming up in the face of negativity that only (and predictably) abated when the coffin was being lowered taught me more about being a pro than I learned in the previous 20 as a writer.

But, not for the first time, I’m straying off topic.

Sometimes the best form of ability is availability. I very much doubt the HK offer would ever have arisen if C4 hadn’t been pipped by ITV.

But it did. Ted Walsh kindly rang out of the blue to wish me good luck last Saturday night and said “ah, you won’t come off the ******* bridle.”

I can guarantee I will Ted, but I’ll try and find enough to justify your faith.

What do you make of the new ITV racing coverage?

It’s a question I’ve been asked many times over the last two months and one that’s impossible to answer.

I did watch an hour of the new team’s storm-lashed first show from Cheltenham on January 1st but I haven’t watched since for the simple reason that poring over every frame would be the professional equivalent of stalking a former partner who has given you the flick.

And, as at least one TV funnyman can testify, that’s never a good look.

But the media seem happy enough with it, don’t they?

They certainly do and why wouldn’t they be given that some prominent scribes are bringing their own brand of much-needed fun back to racing telly with guest slots on The Opening Show sofa?

The insider bubble often gets what the insider bubble wants in racing – this being a case in point – but it’s surprising to see those who marched into battle so enthusiastically over ratings throwing down their arms so tamely.

There is surely no way said scribes would ignore recent ratings through forgetfulness, so we can only assume they want a suitable sample size before making predictions as to how many people will watch terrestrial racing in 2017.

But if they were to make a projection from early figures, they might detect a worrying trend.

Figures published by BARB (British Audience Research Bureau) suggest the move to ITV4 is currently costing racing a minimum of 250,000 viewers a week when totals for the Saturday morning and afternoon shows are added up.

That means the running total of lost viewers is likely to be nudging 3m – yes, you read that right - by the time the Cheltenham Festival kicks off.

Perhaps the spike for ITV’s main channel shows during the spring and summer will more than offset the leakage but the early metrics suggest it would be rash to bet the farm on that.

So what profits a sport if it gains some questionable bantz and curious high-day newbies rerouted from Good Morning Britain and Loose Women only to lose a far greater slice of its core audience on fifty days in the calendar?

Others may disagree, but I suspect the Bubble’s relentless pushing of the ratings broom in recent years will result in racing ending 2017 with total terrestrial viewing figures at an all-time low.

And if that’s not a suitable subject for a column then I don’t know what is.

That’s enough media chat – will you be missing the Festival?

Yes I will – for the first time since Norton’s Coin won the Gold Cup in 1990.

I left for the Alps in the days before internet and mobiles took over our lives with clear instructions to my other half to find the Gold Cup result and relay it down the line when I called home

 “Norton’s Coin won it,” she said.

“Don’t be daft. You must have got the wrong race,” I replied.

“He was 100-1 and he beat Toby Tobias and Desert Orchid,” she added.

 Cue stunned silence from a payphone in Val Thorens.

The Festival has changed a lot since those days and most of the changes have clearly been for the better.

But even positive change can come at a cost and there’s no question that the Cheltenham explosion has caused significant collateral damage to the winter jumps season.

This isn’t the sort of question you ask yourself when you are lucky enough to attend all the major British festivals, but I’ve recently begun to wonder which of the big meetings I’ll miss most.

I’ll certainly miss being at Cheltenham – but not as much as I’ll miss National week at Aintree or Ebor week at York.

On with the racing - what does Thistlecrack’s setback do to the Gold Cup picture? 

 It deprives the Festival of another major star and the chance to take on what I suspected was a beatable jolly.

There’s clearly still ample time for another twist or two and with bookies taking few chances it would be unwise to go in head down.

That said, Djakadam has looked overpriced for much of the winter and could still be the each-way value option now Thistlecrack has departed.

There’s no flash story with this Mullins gelding save to say that he’s gone close in the last two years and should be at his peak as he returns for a third time aged eight. 

Nothing he has done this winter has suggested Djakadam has gone backwards and the fact that he’s tried and tested in the heat of Gold Cup battle suggests another very bold bid is on the cards.

Where do you stand on the Yanworth debate ahead of the Champion Hurdle? 

“It’s not how fast you run, it’s how you run fast.”

Plenty fair judges don’t like the way Yanworth runs – and there’s no doubt Alan King’s gelding has his own way of getting the job done – but he tends to run plenty fast enough when it matters and I wouldn’t knock him in the slightest for doing another Idle Jack impression at Wincanton last weekend. 

Yanworth has no Faugheen or Annie Power to deal with and the Champion will play to his strengths much more than the tactical trials he has won.

In summary, anyone who assumes he’s too slow or quirky to go very close indeed against this beatable bunch is cruising for a bruising.

But what if Barry Geraghty chooses Buveur D’Air ahead of Yanworth?

Then he will be choosing potential ahead of proven form.

Barry knows what it’s like to benefit when someone chooses wrongly in the Champion – he partnered Jezki when AP opted for My Tent Or Yours in 2014 – but this time he has to jump first.

He’s such a canny old buzzard that a vote for Buveur D’Air would be significant and the Henderson gelding looked good when cruising home on his return to hurdles at Sandown.

But Sandown runner-up Rayvin Black was well stuffed behind Yanworth at Wincanton. And this is one case when it looks wise to choose the awkward lad who gets it done over the glider who still has something to prove against the very best two milers.

Indeed, Henderson’s warning that Brain Power’s claims could be every bit as strong as those of Buveur D’Air look well worth heeding. 

Lack of Cheltenham form is a concern for Brain Power, but he’s still improving fast based on two impressive handicap wins and his BHA mark of 162 puts him firmly into the conversation.

How good is Arkle banker Altior?

So good that he could win the Arkle by daylight and then have a quick break before switching saddlecloths to go very close in the Champion Hurdle eighty minutes later!

Joking apart, Altior has impressed in every way it’s possible to impress in four runaway wins over fences.

He dominates the market in a way which kills the Arkle off as a betting proposition and it’s a shame that most bookies haven’t taken the chance to drum up some interest by opening a “without Altior” market.

So who are the ones to note once bookies do start betting on the best of the rest?

Charbel has been on my radar as a Festival longshot for a while but he hasn’t run since chasing home Altior at Sandown in December and a proposed entry for Kempton this weekend hasn’t materialised.

With that in mind, waiting patiently for Waiting Patiently might be the best advice.

 Malcolm Jefferson will be watching the weather like a hawk before aiming this gelding at the Arkle but he might be tempted if the ground comes up soft.

And if Malcolm is tempted, the hint is worth taking. Waiting Patiently looks one of the best young chasing prospects seen in the north for a good while based on his impressive defeat of the very smart Politologue at Haydock.

It’s asking a lot for him to trouble a truly exceptional novice like Altior. But with conditions to suit he could yet develop into a very lively place contender.

Is Melon ripe for the picking in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices?

Some would say he’s ripe for the laying when you take things in the round.

Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan have won this for Willie and Ruby but all three lined up as proven Graded race winners.

By contrast, Melon’s Festival credentials rest on a maiden hurdle win at Leopardstown. 

True, he jumped well and strung his rivals out but the time was nothing flash and the second has been beaten in another maiden hurdle since.  

Add in the fact that Mullins doesn’t hold quite such a powerful hand as normal in the novice hurdling division and the current offers of 7/2 or shorter about Melon giving him a fourth Festival opener win in five years look easy enough to resist.

Where does the Supreme value lie, then?

Nor for the first time, it’s a case of waiting to see how the cards fall.

Moon Racer is still being talked about as a Champion Hurdle possible, while High Bridge keeps impressing but will be unable to take advantage of Alex Ferguson’s valuable 7lb claim if he turns up.

Moon Racer’s Cheltenham victims Ballyandy and Movewithetimes do have this as their prime target and look very closely matched after dominating the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, but the most interesting alternative to Melon is Charli Parcs.

Nicky Henderson seems to fancy running him in the Triumph, but don’t be surprised if the McManus team (and Geraghty) come down in favour of the Supreme.

The debate could be academic if he doesn’t shine in the Adonis at Kempton this weekend, but Charli Parcs left a deep impression with the way he jumped and travelled prior to sauntering clear of the useful Master Blueyes at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Binocular finished a fine second in the Supreme Novices’ after winning the 2008 Adonis. 

It’s early days to suggest Charli could turn out as good as that gelding – but it’s not too early to suggest a decisive win on Saturday will make him a huge player in receipt of 8lb from the older horses if he does go for the Supreme.

How far will Douvan win the Champion Chase by?

By six lengths without coming out of third gear would be a fair guess.

Stablemate Un De Sceaux is one of precious few two-milers who could hope to lay a glove on Douvan and he looks Ryanair bound.

The rest look much of a muchness – with Sire De Grugy and Gods Own among the best – but Douvan looks genuine superstar material and I don’t blame Altior’s connections in the slightest for opting for the calmer waters of the Arkle.

What’s catching your eye in the rest of the Cheltenham markets?

Perhaps I’m missing something but I haven’t been as impressed by the Neptune favourite Finian’s Oscar as many people.

Neon Wolf put up a striking performance on the clock at Haydock and looks a serious rival if Harry Fry aims high, while Yorkhill and Defi Du Seuil have shown more than enough to suggest they will play very significant roles in the JLT and the Triumph respectively.

The handicaps are best left until much nearer the day. I can’t say I ever approached them with confidence on home soil – so Lord knows how I’ll fare if I try to crack them from 6,000 miles away in HK!

What’s the big story waiting to happen in British racing?

You never know what’s coming down the track nowadays – as the news about plans to close Kempton showed – but it’s safe to assume that certain issues will remain topical.

The Jockey Club’s Kempton plan is bound to remain front and centre, though I doubt that even those closest to the project would take even money about full closure at this point.

The fact that the government are squarely behind BHA plans to end offshore Levy dodging should, in theory, result in a massive financial boost to British racing later this year.

Whether lawyers will have a part to play via an appeal to Europe from major High St bookies who have remained resolutely outside the ABP tent remains to be seen.

And m’learned friends might just be called into action to test a couple of other points of interest in the next year or two.

As highlighted in today’s RP, Betfred’s exclusive licence to operate pool betting on British racing expires next year.

You can bet your bottom dollar that Jockey Club Racecourses and other groups are licking their lips about the chance to roll out something similar to the Chesterbet licence to print money.

Sadly, the odds against the BHA helping broker something meaningful to ease the problem of bookmakers restricting punters who have the temerity to win on a regular basis seem a good bit longer.

What about a few names to note for the British Flat season in 2017?

I spoke to Silvestre De Sousa in HK before Christmas about another tilt at the jockeys’ championship and he’s definitely up for it.

Suspensions cost him a fair amount of time off in 2016 but, with Jim Crowley in a new role for Sheikh Hamdan, the Brazilian looks a very worthy favourite at 7/4 or 13/8.

Keith Dalgleish’s rapid progress since taking up training suggests another big year is on the cards, while the equine name to note is Swiss Storm.

This powerfully-built Frankel colt was too green to justify a tall reputation on his Haydock debut but made no mistake against fair rivals at Newbury.

Godolphin have bought into him since and David Elsworth has every right to regard him as a colt with the potential to win a valuable handicap and maybe something better at up to a mile this summer.

What is the HK racing scene like?

I’ll know much more in a few months but, from the outside, it looks vibrant, complex and compelling.

There are just two meetings a week – one in the heart of the city at Happy Valley and another at Sha Tin.

The betting pools are vast and have recently been boosted by the fact that all the action is now screened live on RUK and ATR every Wednesday and Sunday. 

Competition is fierce at every level with wickedly tight handicaps forming the bulk of most cards and a rich Group-race schedule peaking with the Longines Hong Kong International races in December.

Bizarre though it seems to those of us brought up on British racing, the main players in HK enjoy the same sort of profile that Premier League football stars have to deal with over here.

The pressure from a hugely demanding betting public is relentless and the hkjc.com website is a formidable resource for those who demand every piece of data under the sun before finalizing their punting strategy.

Give us a couple of HK names to note in the coming weeks

John Moore’s Rapper Dragon is the emerging star on the HK scene and will be a hot favourite to continue his winning streak in the BMW Hong Kong Derby on March 19th.

However, it’s also worth following the progress of a couple of former Brits this spring.

UK form students will have fond memories of Defrocked, who thrived despite some notable eccentricities to land the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot for Jamie Osborne last June.

The four-year-old, now called Limitless, put up a remarkable performance under a daring De Sousa ride to swoop from the rear in a very strongly-run handicap at Sha Tin last weekend.

I’m not sure I would fancy him to repeat the feat over further in the Derby but he’s clearly thriving in his new home and will always be one to respect in races where the early pace is demanding.

The artist formerly known as Chief Whip, best known for finishing third in Defrocked’s Britannia for Richard Hannon, is the other former Brit to note.

Now going by the name of California Whip, he caught the eye travelling sweetly when fifth behind Rapper Dragon over 1800m in the Classic Cup last week and is bound to win again once dropped in trip.

Closer to hand, HK legend Able Friend aims to get back on the winning trail in the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup early on Sunday morning UK time. The hugely popular veteran has been saddled with wide draws on his last two starts and also met traffic trouble when third behind stablemate Helene Paragon in G1 company over a mile on his latest start.

Stall 3 offers no excuse this time, but a lack of proven front runners suggest this could turn tactical and Helene Paragon might just have the edge again if he can strike for home first.

What will you miss most and least about British racing? 

I won’t miss the long drives, the frustrations involved in trying to beat the odds and the way the bookmaking industry is gradually taking over so much of racing’s media coverage these days.

But what I will miss outweighs what I won’t miss by ten to one.

I’ll miss the big days at Cheltenham, Aintree, Ascot, Newmarket and York. I’ll miss the smaller days at Carlisle, Musselburgh, Kelso and Bangor. And I’ll miss those in the middle at places like Haydock, Warwick and Pontefract.

I’ll miss working with some first rate pros who are also good friends away from work and the astounding variety and colour of a sport that has much more to be proud of than some of its doom mongers would have you believe.

Last but not least, I’ll miss being a regular contributor to sportinglife.com. 

I’ll miss the bloke who used to write in every single week to ask whether I had any news on racing’s elusive pimpernel – aka Mikael D’Haguenet.

I’ll miss chatting with contributors on the racecourse and responding to the dozens who got in touch from far-flung places all over the world to voice their views and questions on a massive range of topics.

And I’ll miss the slightly uneasy feeling that comes from the knowing that some of those who email in are capable of exposing any lack of homework in a flash.

In short, I’ll miss the weekly discipline involved in doing one of the most enjoyable jobs to ever come my way. It’s been a treat from start to finish.

And finally, what’s happening to the weekly webchat?

No decision has been made is the line from on high at the moment. Suffice to say that if the next man or woman to occupy this seat enjoys it half as much as I have then he or she is in for a treat.

That’s all, folks!