Fran Berry assess the betting for 2020 Irish Flat Jockeys' Championship including Colin Keane and Shane Foley
Top pundit and regular columnist Fran Berry looks ahead to the Irish Flat jockeys' title race and considers where the value lies in the Sky Bet market.
Irish Flat Jockeys' Championship odds
- Colin Keane 4/6
- Shane Foley 3/1
- Seamie Heffernan 10/1
- Declan McDonagh 10/1
- Chris Hayes 14/1
- Oisin Orr 16/1
- Ben Coen 20/1
- Billy Lee 20/1
- Wayne Lordan 25/1
What's the score at Ballydoyle?
It's the first time since 2012 that an O'Brien isn't in the race for the jockeys' title in Ireland and as a result that opens up the whole question of who's going to ride for Ballydoyle.
With none of Aidan's sons in the picture now and Ryan Moore presumably only over for the weekends or major race days, that definitely leaves more of an opportunity for the likes of Seamie Heffernan and Wayne Lordan but you'd think they'll be splitting the rides between them still.
Unless one of them ends up becoming the standout number one and getting the lion's share then they may not, as individuals, have the ammunition to be genuine title contenders.
Aidan O'Brien sent out 118 winners last year so if one did happen to end up riding the bulk of them then they'd have to be on the scene, but I think we can work on the premise that they'll be shared out. And Ryan could also be over a bit more than in previous years.
Is Keane nailed on to regain his crown?
The first one we've got to look at has to be Colin Keane as the 4/6 favourite. He's a very worthy market leader who was champion in 2017 with 100 winners and he's runner-up in 2018 and 2019. Last year he enjoyed 103 winners which in any normal year would be enough to win the title but Donnacha obviously beat him right at the end.
He ended up 27 winners clear of the third (Shane Foley) and he's obviously got the full backing of the Ger Lyons stable, a stable on the up in every way which is expanding in both quality and quantity. He also gets a good spread of outside rides from the likes of Ado McGuinness, Noel Meade and Johnny Murtagh.
Interestingly, he's only used quite sparingly by UK trainers when they come over which is a bit of an omission but he's likely to remain in Ireland more than some with Ger's horses rarely going over to England these days.
He's a very strong rider, not prone to whip or interference suspensions and it's clear why he tops the betting at this early stage.
Foley homework to pay dividends?
Next in line is Shane Foley. Obviously last year was his first as stable jockey to Jessie Harrington and her Flat winners jumped by a third from 2018 to 2019, including all them top-class juvenile fillies they produced. There are rumours they've close to a hundred two-year-olds there this year so it points to great strength and depth and ammunition for the stable jockey.
Along with that, Foley is very popular with other trainers, he rides a lot of work for other yards and should have plenty of other rides to go along with all the backing from the Harrington team.
The only negative is that, assuming the world is back to something close to normal, is that if their high-class two-year-olds become genuine three-year-old stars then he could be away quite a lot abroad, but the same could be said of any of his rivals too I suppose.
Does an O'Brien still hold the key?
Declan McDonagh might be the most interesting one at the prices.
Given that Joseph O'Brien trained 85 winners in 2019, and supposedly has more horses than ever lined up for this year, it has to be significant that the trainer's now-retired brother Donnacha O'Brien rode over half of them last year.
If the current trend continues then McDonagh has ridden seven winners in Dundalk so far for Joseph which could be a developing relationship. O'Brien has used a number of jockeys but Shane Crosse, the stable's apprentice, is quite heavy and at the moment it appears Declan is getting the rides on some nice maidens.
That just points to him being the main man for Joseph through the season which could be enough to really bring him into the title picture.
Declan was the champion jockey in 2006 and like any career he's had his peaks and troughs, but 2019 was definitely a rebuilding year for him after going freelance and he looks in a good place being in demand with the Joseph O'Brien team.
Who could emerge as best of the rest?
Of the others in the betting, realistically it's hard to see any of Chris Hayes, Oisin Orr and Andrew Slattery actually winning it but their chances will most likely all depend on who Dermot Weld uses the most. It appears he might be sharing the rides between the three of them and it looks unlikely that any of them will completely nail down the number one position.
However, at his weight and given the number of outside rides he's able to pick up, Hayes might be the one to materialise and give it a go.
Billy Lee and Ronan Whelan are both fine riders and are guaranteed to ride decent winners through the season but they tend not to ride much below 9st except on big days, where they could get down to a minimum of 8st10lb and as a consequence that's a bit of a restriction.
Is there a value bet to be had?
In conclusion, Keane is definitely the one to beat but at odds-on he's no value for a bet that's going to take eight months to come to fruition and at the prices Shane Foley and DECLAN McDONAGH make plenty of appeal.
With McDonagh 10/1 he'd definitely be worth a look, particularly if he gets the backing from the Joseph O'Brien stable.
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