Adam Houghton nailed a 7/2 winner at Kempton last night - now Andrew Asquith outlines the Timeform view on the action at Chelmsford this evening.
There are some interesting races at Chelmsford tonight, but the best bet comes in the second race over seven furlongs (17:20). There are only five runners, and there isn’t much to separate them all on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, but in terms of potential, the Roger Varian-trained ARION FOX is a standout.
A nice sort physically, it is no surprise her sales price more than doubled from foal to yearling (300,000 guineas), but she made a slower start to her career than many anticipated, starting a strong 11/4 second favourite on debut at Newmarket in August only to beat two rivals home. She again failed to see the race out as strongly as she had promised on her next start at Newbury, but she showed much more after a short break on her all-weather debut at Lingfield in October.
Arion Fox could only finish midfield on that occasion, but she shaped much better than the bare result, not getting the clearest of runs on the home turn but staying on well once finding her stride and finishing with running left at the line. Arion Fox took a big step forward on her nursery debut at Kempton over six furlongs next time, easy enough to back in the market but winning in the style of a filly who was well ahead of her mark.
She travelled with purpose and made good headway on the inner in the straight before showing a nice change of gear at the cut-away to readily put the race to bed.
On pedigree, this return to seven furlongs shouldn’t be a problem – she wasn’t stopping at the line last time – and she remains very much unexposed on the all-weather, while the booking of Oisin Murphy catches the eye.
One horse who has drifted to a very backable price this morning is BIG WING, who is set to make his handicap debut over a mile and a quarter (18:20). He has a bit to find with some of these on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, but the ‘p’ attached to his rating indicates he is more than capable of bridging the gap.
Big Wing has shaped well in some above-average minor events at Wolverhampton on all three of his starts so far, producing his best performance to date when beaten only by a potentially smart type (who started 100/30-on) over the extended mile last time.
Admittedly, he proved no match for that rival, but he beat the rest convincingly, while also leaving the impression he would progress further for this step up in trip.
On what he has achieved so far, an opening mark of 82 is more than fair, and he has the potential to progress past these more exposed sorts.
Published at 1024 BST on 06/05/21
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