Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival: Ben Linfoot's Talking Points
Ben Linfoot ponders a way to get Enable beaten, talks Juddmonte International tactics and unearths a bet for the Melrose when looking at the trainers to follow in York handicaps.
Tactics could play a big part in the Juddmonte International
Crystal Ocean needs a stiff 10 furlongs. Japan has to prove himself at the trip. Circus Maximus is stepping back up in distance after taking his form to a new level over a mile. King Of Comedy and Lord Glitters are stepping up to 10 furlongs for the first time.
There are a lot of uncertainties in the day one highlight at the Ebor Festival and guaranteed pace is another. There are no pacemakers in here and on recent form none of these horses have made the running.
Crystal Ocean won’t be far away from the pace, you sense. Japan, if he can lay up with them, will be prominent, too. Circus Maximus is another that won’t be dropped in. Elarqam is always up there and perhaps he will attempt to make all.
But a few of these could be caught out at the distance and track position could well be vital. The one horse you might expect to take up the front-running role, Elarqam, is three from four over 10 furlongs this season and won at the track on his latest start. He could be dangerous under a well-judged front-running ride.
Crystal Ocean is the best horse in the race and has a slight class advantage, but a tactical affair could level things up in this field. James Doyle will have to have his wits about him and it all makes for a fascinating contest to kick off a fabulous week’s racing.
Talking of tactics…
The Sky Bet Great Voltigeur has a small but select field and we could well see the exciting Logician step up and continue the unbeaten start he’s made to his career.
However, the best horse in the race on all known form is Constantinople who has lost out by just a neck on his last two starts after getting into battles with South Pacific and Nayef Road.
The latter reopposes on Wednesday, but Constantinople has a 3lb pull at the weights with that rival and could well cement his St Leger claims if he behaves himself on the Knavesmire.
He doesn’t look the most straightforward, trading at less than 1/2 in-running on his last three defeats, wandering around and hanging at the business end of his last two outings (Goodwood’s camber may not have helped him last time).
Whether a smaller field will play to his strengths is debatable, but if Ryan Moore can hold onto him and keep him straight on this more conventional course he may well have the ammunition to burst the Logician bubble.
Persuasive claims
Charlie Hills has an excellent record in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes, having won the race with Dutch Connection and Phoenix Of Spain in recent years, and he could well land the contest again this year with Persuasion.
He was so impressive on debut, winning despite a slow start in a maiden on the final day of Glorious Goodwood – the same maiden, in fact, that Dutch Connection won before his Acomb success.
The son of Acclamation travelled supremely well and showed a nice turn of foot to put the contest to bed, scoring in the style of a smart colt.
The form has barely been tested as yet, but the sixth, Mambo Nights, was a neck second in a Newbury maiden next time out, so the early signs are it will be strong as it usually is.
How could Magical reverse form with Enable in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks?
It’s going to be tough. So far it’s Enable 3-0 Magical and all the evidence points to John Gosden’s filly being just that bit better. There’s no shame in that, she’s better than every other horse in training, too.
But Magical hasn’t been far off her in their last two encounters and both times she’s come off the pace to challenge her, with Enable pulling out more as Magical breathed down her neck.
A similar scenario is likely to play out again, but the break since the Coral-Eclipse might well help Magical reverse the form given Enable has had that famous King George dust up with Crystal Ocean since while the Ballydoyle filly had her feet up.
Perhaps that will at least help her get in front of Enable as we get towards the home straight. We haven’t seen Magical head Enable, yet, but getting first run on her would offer the Clarehaven great a new challenge.
She’ll probably be up to it, she's up for most things, but the Magical team have to try something different and a more aggressive ride could be one way of going about it.
Who are the dangers to Liberty Beach in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes?
Liberty Beach sets the form standard in the Lowther but she is stepping up in trip by a furlong. She’s shown so much speed she’s not certain to get the extra furlong and that gives the others a chance.
Topping the opposition is supplemented entry Under The Stars for James Tate. She only made her debut at Ripon on July 8 where she bolted up by three lengths, but she improved on that form in style when landing the Group Three Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes at Ascot at 25/1.
Besharah did the Keeneland-Lowther double in 2015, but there have been some high-profile disappointments from fillies attempting the same feat in recent years; namely Angels Will Fall (2011), Fair Eva (2016) and Angel’s Hideaway (2018).
Wejdan is another player for William Haggas. She had loads to do on the near side on debut at Newbury as the favourite made her challenge up the centre, but she defied greenness and market weakness to get up by a cosy half-length.
Could we have another massive shock in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes?
We could. Battaash has run well below his best in two runs at the track. Ten Sovereigns has to prove he has the speed for a fast five furlongs. And after those two big guns we’re into a sea of horses that could end up on top of the pile if things go their way.
In the last 10 years we’ve had 20/1, 40/1 (x2) and 100/1 winners of this race and if neither of the big two win on Friday we could be looking at another Nunthorpe winner from among that price range.
El Astronaute is lightning quick and he loves it at York. Ornate has shown real pace on several occasions this year and doesn’t deserve rag of the field status. Copper Knight is another horse with speed who saves his best for the Knavesmire.
Most punters won’t be able to look past the big two. But they have serious questions to answer for my money and rolling the dice with the odd outsider could well pay dividends.
Are there any signs that Stradivarius’ winning streak is about to come to an end?
No.
And finally, who are the trainers to watch in York handicaps?
Richard Fahey is closing in on a century of York handicap winners, William Haggas has won 34 York handicaps at nearly 15 per cent and Tim and Mick Easterby, between them, have won 112 York handicaps from 1703 goes.
They are the usual suspects, with lots of runners, along with Mark Johnston, David O’Meara and Kevin Ryan.
But there are some smaller southern-based yards with burgeoning records in York handicaps and I’ve picked out a trio of such handlers to keep an eye on this week.
Firstly, Charlie Fellowes.
He’s won three York handicaps from eight goes at 37.5 per cent, his winners being Lycidas, Chiefofchiefs and Carnwennan, the latter winning in the May of this year.
Fellowes has yet to have a runner in a handicap at the Ebor meeting, but that will change this week thanks to Carnwennan in the Sky Bet Handicap on Wednesday and the highly likeable Prince Of Arran, who is going for the £1million Sky Bet Ebor on Saturday.
This international jetsetter has finished third in a Melbourne Cup, so we know he has the steel for this kind of test and his recent run at Goodwood was a blowing the cobwebs-away exercise.
He has an 8lb pull at the weights with Withhold on their 2018 Northumberland Plate running (the pair were first and second), yet is four times the price. He’s worth a second look.
Secondly, David Menuisier.
The Pulborough trainer has won twice in York handicaps from eight runners, his winners being Slunovrat and Thundering Blue, the latter in the colours of Clive Washbourn.
He’s also the owner of History Writer who could run in the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York on Thursday.
Never able to land a blow from an average draw in the Golden Mile at Goodwood on his latest start, he had previously been in good form at Sandown and still looks like he could have a say off his new mark when he gets a really strong gallop to aim at.
He’ll likely get that if he turns up on Thursday, although he could ideally do with a shower or two if everything was going to be perfect for him.
And finally, Eve Johnson Houghton.
Johnson Houghton is three from 15 at 20 per cent in York handicaps, her winners being Yuritini, Orientalist and Scarlet Dragon, and her Kiefer looks a fascinating contender for Saturday’s Sky Bet Melrose Handicap.
The grey Pour Moi colt is improving fast since being switched to handicaps, his win off 75 in May backed up by good efforts in defeat off marks of 82 and 88 in June and July.
On his last two starts he’s really shaped as though a step up in trip will suit and he’s a half-brother to Bauer who stayed well and won at York.
Off a mark of 88 running over 1m6f for the first time he can go really well and Monday’s odds of 14/1 in a few places look worth snapping up.
*Ben Linfoot's Value Bet column is back at 5pm every night before the Ebor Festival.
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