Cheltenham Festival tips: Donn McClean Friday verdict
Donn McClean has two bets on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival and thinks Ireland can win the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Donn's Friday selections:
It may pay to retain faith in ROAD TO RESPECT's prospects of landing the Gold Cup on Friday, despite the prospect of soft ground. Especially if your faith in Balko Des Flos in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday was weakened because of the rain. And Supasundae almost pulled it off too in the Stayers’ Hurdle, despite the soft ground.
Maybe Cheltenham soft is different to Ireland soft.
Road To Respect was seriously impressive last year when he won the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate, and that was after he had made a mistake at the first fence. He proved that day that he could cope with a big field in a high-class race, and that he could thrive under Cheltenham Festival conditions.
Noel Meade’s horse was progressive last season as a novice, and he has continued that progression into this season. He won a Grade 3 contest at Punchestown on his seasonal debut under a fine ride from Sean Flanagan, and he ran a cracker next time to finish a close second to Outlander in the Grade 1JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal.
It was a little disappointing at the time that he did not go and win that race. He travelled like the most likely winner down to the final fence, but Outlander battled back gamely on the run-in to repel his challenge.
But he was keener than ideal through the early stages of that race, and he gave away ground by continually jumping to his left.
Fitted with a hood when he raced next, in the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Chase, the old Lexus, he relaxed through his race. He wasn’t as keen as he had been at Down Royal, he settled nicely towards the rear of the field. Also, back on a left-handed track, he didn’t give away ground by jumping to his left.
He moved up nicely on the run to the second last fence, joined the front rank on the run to the last, and he stayed on strongly up the run-in to get home by over a length.
The form of that race was questioned because a 66/1 shot finished second, but that 66/1 shot was Balko Des Flos, who ran out an impressive winner of the Ryanair Chase on Thursday.
Old rival Outlander was third in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase, and Outlander is a high-class performer who is at his best at Leopardstown. Gordon Elliott’s horse was only just beaten in the Irish Gold Cup on his next run, over the Christmas Chase course and distance, adding further solidity to the strength of the Christmas Chase form.
Road To Respect was entered in that Irish Gold Cup, but the decision was taken by Noel Meade and owners Gigginstown House Stud to skip the February race and go straight to Cheltenham, a fresh horse. That is a positive in the context of his prospects of landing the Blue Riband.
The Gamut gelding – he is a three-parts brother to Road To Riches, whom Meade trained to finish third in the 2015 Gold Cup – is only seven, so he has the potential to progress further as a staying chaser. And his official rating of 168 is only 1lb lower than the top-rated Might Bite’s rating, so he may not have to progress by that much.
The Triumph Hurdle puzzle is a difficult one to crack, but the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, in which Mr Adjudicator beat Farclas, could hold a key.
The Spring Hurdle is a rich source of Triumph Hurdle winners, with four of the last six coming from the Leopardstown race. Mr Adjudicator ran out a game winner of the Spring Hurdle this year, and he clocked a faster time than the time that Samcro clocked – albeit off a relatively sedate pace – in winning the Deloitte Hurdle run over the same course and distance 35 minutes later.
Rated 81 on the flat when he was with Joe Murphy, the Camacho gelding was impressive when he won on his debut over hurdles for Willie Mullins at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, and he stayed on well to win the Spring Hurdle. He had the pace to dead-heat for first place a maiden at Listowel over seven furlongs, but he also had the stamina and the tenacity that was required to win that Grade 1 hurdle over two miles. He is progressive, and he is proven on soft ground.
It is difficult to know how the Irish juvenile form compares with the British juvenile form this year, as it is most years before the Triumph Hurdle is run. However, it may be that the Irish form has been under-rated by the market and, in an intriguing contest, MR ADJUDICATOR could be a little over-priced.
For more of Donn's work visit www.donnmcclean.com
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