How good is Arrogate? Ben Linfoot asks the question.


Just how good is Arrogate? Ben Linfoot wonders if we'll ever really know the answer to that question.

It was always going to be the case that in the immediate years AF (After Frankel) we would have horses come along that would be unfairly compared to the greatest we’ve ever seen. Recency bias and all that.

Camelot made his bid for Triple Crown glory in the same year Frankel was strutting his considerable stuff as a four-year-old and the ‘F Word’ was muttered in dispatches before his star started to shine slightly less brightly with defeat at Doncaster in the St Leger.

Then Air Force Blue’s juvenile form led to comparisons with the greatest son of Galileo, but he misfired drastically as a three-year-old to quickly put to bed any crazy talk of him following in the hoofprints of the mighty one.

In the United States, a first Triple Crown hero since Affirmed in 1977 arrived in 2015, Bob Baffert’s American Pharoah winning the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes before a shock defeat at Saratoga was the pre-cursor to his crowning glory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He was the best America had produced since the 1970s, so of course Frankel comparisons were drawn, even if they did do their racing on completely different surfaces.

Success on the track can be measured in pounds or lbs, and while The Pharoah dwarfed Frankel’s career loot – almost double the money once converted into pounds sterling – he ended his racing days 6lb shy of Frankel’s best-ever 140 official rating on international classifications.

It might well be trivial comparing horses from different generations that have done their racing on different surfaces, but racing fans love to do just that and the ‘F Word’ cropped up once again on social media at the weekend when Arrogate, also trained by Baffert, put up an astonishing performance to win the Dubai World Cup.

It was thrilling to see a horse prove himself in such a different league to his rivals that he could overcome huge adversity and still win on the bridle with any amount in hand. To miss the break in a race like that and win easily was something else and it prompted Baffert to proclaim him ‘the greatest horse since Secretariat’ in the immediate aftermath.

So the ‘F Word’ didn’t come from Baffert (we’ll presume he was referencing Dirt horses rather than snubbing Frankel entirely), but that the ‘S Word’ was brought up by the trainer was surprising in itself, especially considering it’s just 19 months since he saddled American Pharoah to Breeders’ Cup Classic glory on the back of a Triple Crown.

Comparing Arrogate’s achievements to those of Secretariat’s and American Pharoah’s isn’t easy, but when it comes to prizemoney he has already amassed a total more than any other horse in history. 

Over four times what Frankel earnt and over twice that of American Pharoah, the $17million he has collected has mainly come from his last four starts, from a record-breaking Travers Stakes win to the Dubai World Cup, via the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the inaugural Pegasus Stakes, a race that is now the world’s richest.

But the lack of a credible rival on Dirt means it’s going to be tough for him to push his rating through the roof.

Considered a 134 horse at the end of his three-year-old season, California Chrome’s no-show in the Pegasus didn’t help Arrogate inflate his rating further and the opposition at Meydan on Saturday was Grade Two-standard at best.

Gun Runner, rated 16lb inferior, was the second highest-rated horse in the race and he finished runner-up, despite his best form being over shorter distances. He’d previously been smashed up by Arrogate in the Travers.

Neolithic, rated just 114, was third, as he was in the Pegasus, and he looks a Grade Two horse at best having been put in his place on his two starts at the top level, while he’s only managed two victories in nine career starts.

It’s difficult to think of another Dirt horse that could push Arrogate to a higher number than he’s already achieved. Gun Runner might be a 20/1 shot for the Breeders’ Cup Classic but he is second-favourite for the race at this early stage and as far as testing Arrogate goes much will depend on the American Classic generation and what comes out of the Triple Crown series.

Arrogate was breathtaking on Saturday. He’s just what racing in the US needed on the back of American Pharoah and that he did it without the aid of Lasix was fantastic too, even if that will probably be for the last time.

But at the moment it’s difficult to know just how good he is. It’s with hope that something emerges from the Triple Crown races to give him a real test by the end of the year.

As it stands the opposition he’s beating just aren’t good enough for him to enter a greatest-ever debate - one that’s confined to Dirt horses or otherwise. Even when he does give them a 20-length head start and a good beating.

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