Cheltenham Festival Day 2: Talking points - Samcro, RSA Insurance Novices' Chase and Altior
Ben Linfoot discusses the big talking points on day two of the Cheltenham Festival and he's taking on one of the hot favourites.
Is Samcro the monster his odds suggest he is?
I think so. Unbeaten in seven – one point-to-point, three bumpers and three novice hurdles – the evidence is stacking up that this six-year-old is very much the real deal.
Purchased by Gordon Elliott for £335,000 at the Goffs Aintree sale five days after a cosy point-to-point success at Monksgrange in the April of 2016, this son of Germany, also the sire of Faugheen, has done everything very easily in all assignments so far.
And it’s not as if you can pick holes in his form. Even that easy point success came at the expense of Elegant Escape, a novice chaser that is now rated 153 and is being backed for the RSA Insurance Chase as I type.
Good Thyne Tara won races easily either side of getting beaten in a bumper by Samcro at Navan, while Mind’s Eye, beaten 15 lengths by this Gigginstown-owned freak in his maiden hurdle at the start of the season, won his next two races with ease.
Then there’s Jessica Harrington’s Jetz, beaten 12 lengths by Samcro in the Grade 3 ‘Monksfield’ Novice Hurdle at Navan in November, a horse that was denied by just a head in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month.
And that’s all before we mention Samcro’s five-and-a-half length cruise in the Deloitte, a race in which one of those that chased him home, namely Paloma Blue, is quietly fancied for his own Cheltenham Festival assignment in the Sky Bet Supreme despite that thrashing at Leopardstown.
The time of that race was three seconds slower than the Spring Juvenile over the same distance on the same card, but even the fact that Samcro was able to sail to victory off a dawdling pace highlights the class advantage he had over his opponents that day.
It’s a gulf that could well be apparent over every novice hurdler either side of the Irish Sea. We will see for ourselves at the Festival in the Ballymore. At 8/11 for the race, he’s one of the shortest-priced favourites of the week. I’ve no doubt he has the tools to justify those sort of odds.
Which horse will come out on top from the Flogas form in the RSA Insurance Chase?
Let’s just forget the claims of Presenting Percy and Black Corton and Elegant Escape in the RSA Insurance Chase for the minute.
They’re clearly players in the stayers’ championship race for novice chasers, but the Grade One Flogas Novice Chase, run over 2m5f at the Dublin Racing Festival, looks the singular key piece of form heading into the contest.
Four of the last nine RSA winners have graduated from the Flogas. Cooldine, Weapon’s Amnesty, Bostons Angel and Lord Windermere all took in the Flogas en route to RSA success, two following victory at Leopardstown (Cooldine and Bostons Angel) and two after placed efforts (Weapon’s Amnesty and Lord Windermere).
Defeat in the Flogas is no barrier to success in the RSA, then, and the more I look at Monalee, the brave winner of this year’s Flogas, the more I think he should've run in the JLT.
His Leopardstown victory was superb coming on the back of a heavy fall at the same track in the Grade One Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Christmas.
To bounce back in such an aggressive manner was top class, but really attacking his fences seemed to suit and the slight drop in trip to 2m5f was a big part of that. If he’s slightly more restrained over three miles it could spell trouble and he doesn’t have much in hand over his Flogas pursuers.
Leading the pursuit was Willie Mullins’ Al Boum Photo, a horse that was bouncing back from his own fall at Limerick on Boxing Day. He probably would’ve beaten Dounikas had he negotiated the last successfully at Limerick and he did beat Dounikas in the Flogas, by a length, despite some minor mistakes on the way around.
Dounikos travelled wider and was short of room after the final fence, his staying-on fourth a fine RSA preparation in its own right and he is going this route rather than the four-miler.
But Al Boum Photo looks the one to take out of the Flogas. He stayed on really well for second, shaping as though a first crack at three miles over fences would bring about further improvement.
Given he’s related to smart staying hurdler Grand Crus and Scottish National winner Al Co, his pedigree points to possible improvement as he steps up in trip as well. With Ruby Walsh taking over in the saddle for the first time since his maiden hurdle win, that potential comes with a big ‘P’.
If Walsh can get him to cut out the little mistakes at his fences, Al Boum Photo could well become the fifth horse from the Flogas to achieve RSA glory in the last decade.
Is Altior a play or a lay at evens in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase?
There are some very solid short-priced favourites at the Festival this year and Altior will be one of them for many punters, but he looks very short to me - even after drifting a little since Douvan was declared - and I’m happy to take him on.
It niggles me that he was least impressive in the Arkle at last year’s Festival from his three starts in the early part of 2017 and I’m not sure that three-runner race in the Game Spirit was the ideal preparation for a championship contest.
We know Special Tiara is going to go off like a hare in this as it’s the only way he knows and I just wonder if Altior might struggle to get into his rhythm in the early part of the race.
If he’s at his very best he probably wins, but, after that one canter around Newbury, his only run since last April, there has to be chance he won’t be absolutely A1.
And I like Min. Yes, he was beaten seven lengths by Altior in the Sky Bet Supreme two years ago, but he made a mistake at the third that day and was found to be injured afterwards. And he still beat subsequent Champion Hurdle hero Buveur D’Air despite all of that.
He’s had his problems, but a career-best in the Coral Dublin Chase last time suggests he’s arriving at the Champion Chase in the form of his life. He travelled sweetly and jumped superbly when chasing Special Tiara at Leopardstown, so the likely strong pace at the Festival could play right into his hands again.
The one negative for Min is the looming presence of stablemate Douvan, chosen by Ruby Walsh as his Champion Chase ride. At least Min backers will likely get a bigger price now. As for Douvan, I couldn't back him in this, such a hot renewal, after a year off the track. If he managed to win it would dwarf Mullins' annual achievements with Quevaga. This is a proper race.
But, back to Altior. With the dual assault from Closutton now confirmed he does look on the short side. Even though he’s going for his 13th successive victory, I personally wouldn’t want to be piling into him at prohibitive odds. Especially after that foot scare on Monday.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
