Cheltenham Festival Day 1: Talking points - Getabird, Footpad, Buveur D'Air and Apple's Jade
Ben Linfoot discusses the big talking points on day one of the Cheltenham Festival with the big four short-priced favourites under the microscope.
Will favourite backers start the week with a bang with Getabird?
With the Samcro switch failing to materialise, Getabird's task in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle is a lot easier than it might otherwise have been.
But, still, he is very short for the raucous curtain raiser at 13/8. The rain helps him, as he’s a horse that’s been difficult to train and genuine spring ground would have been a worry, but the market suggests he has a clear class edge on his rivals and I’m not sure there’s anywhere near enough evidence to come to that conclusion just yet.
He was very good in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer at Punchestown, a race Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci have good recent previous with. Vautour and Douvan both won that Grade 2 before rocking up at Cheltenham and landing the Supreme in style, while Min would’ve completed the double had he not run into Altior.
But Getabird stole some easy lengths at the start that day at Punchestown, got 6lb from his main rival Mengli Khan (not that it would’ve made any difference to the result) and it was just his second start over hurdles. He hasn’t added to that experience and both Douvan and Vautour had French hurdling form under their belt prior to their novice campaigns.
It’s a concern and it has been brought up in the build-up that he ran out when going left-handed in a point-to-point, with all of his form under Rules going the other way around.
That may or may not be relevant, I’d lean towards the latter and point to that lack of a class edge over his opposition as the main reason to oppose him on Tuesday. Both Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy have the form to challenge Getabird’s and Paloma Blue’s wouldn’t be far off either.
Throw the impressive Sky Bet Rossington Main winner First Flow into the mix now he's got his conditions and you have a handful of worthy opponents before we even tackle the outsiders.
Tactics could be key. Give Ruby Walsh an easy lead on this Getabird and he might be hard to peg back. But you would think the likes of Paloma Blue and First Flow won’t allow such a scenario and, on balance, this Mullins-Ricci Supreme hotpot looks a tad vulnerable at the prices.
Which horse will prosper in the Footpad-Petit Mouchoir-Saint Calvados Arkle burn-up?
The clever answer here might well have been Sceau Royal prior to the setback that has ruled him out of the race, but the big three look the only ones to concentrate on now.
The other one at a single-figure price is Brain Power, but his jumping frailties have been fully exposed the last twice in lesser contests than this one and it takes a serious leap of faith to think he’ll finally put it all together on the big stage in an Arkle that’s as hot as this one.
Both Footpad and Saint Calvados have won their races from the front this season, while Petit Mouchoir’s best hurdling form came when he dominated from the outset as well, so the potential is there for a fierce battle for the lead.
Judging by how easily Petit Mouchoir was brushed aside by Footpad at Leopardstown last month, even accounting for rustiness and the early mistakes he made, you would think his best chance of reversing that form is a change in tactics.
When he beat Footpad over hurdles he led him from the outset, but getting in front of him early on won’t be easy given how well Willie Mullins’ horse jumps. And then there’s Saint Calvados, a horse that looked right at home when making all in the Kingmaker at Warwick.
It’s a fascinating tactical quandary, but I can’t help but think Footpad will be the most adaptable to any scenario. He could take a lead off either Saint Calvados, Petit Mouchoir or both and sit behind waiting to pounce, while we know how dangerous he is himself on the front end.
The other two might just need things to go their way. Footpad, on the other hand, could have all bases covered. He’s looked a natural so far over his fences, showing speed and class and everything you’d want in an Arkle horse. He very much looks the one to beat.
Is there a bet in the Unibet Champion Hurdle?
The two-mile hurdling division is a weak one and unless Faugheen rediscovers something like his best form this should be a cruise for Buveur D’Air.
I anticipate it to be just that, as I find it difficult to believe that even Willie Mullins can get Faugheen back in tip-top shape just 38 days after being beaten by a staying hurdler in Supasundae in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
This is not a race for ageing legs, with all 27 horses aged 10 and over that have run in the race since 1981 having been beaten (thanks to Matt Tombs' Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide for that one). It’s going to be tough for Faugheen and I’m happy to take him on in all markets, even in first-time cheekpieces.
At seven, Buveur D’Air is in his absolute pomp and he just looks too good for this year’s Champion Hurdle field, with his odds of 8/15 looking perfectly fair.
As for a bet, though, the ‘without Buveur D’Air’ market makes most appeal. Three or four bookmakers have priced this up now including Sky Bet who go 13/2 about Melon. He looks the one to be on.
If Labaik had done his usual trick and refused to race in the Sky Bet Supreme last year, we would be talking about an eight-length Supreme winner in Melon. That was just his second start over hurdles, while he’s only raced four times since then. He remains hugely unexposed.
He’s a big price because he flopped at Leopardstown last time, but he’s worth forgiving one bad run. The first-time hood helped him settle that day but he lost his position three out before rallying for a 12-length fifth at the line.
I’ve no doubt he’s much better than that and with the headgear left off, back at Cheltenham, I reckon he can produce an effort good enough to chase home Buveur D’Air in second.
The two best performances of his career have come at Cheltenham, including his third in the International back in December. He travelled sweetly that day and gave way to My Tent Or Yours and The New One up the hill, but he was giving the former 6lb for just over a two-length beating.
He’s weighted to reverse that form with My Tent off levels yet is a bigger price than Nicky Henderson’s second string.
I couldn’t have a Ruby Walsh-less Yorkhill on my mind over two miles, while Wicklow Brave is a risky proposition at the start (was reluctant to jump off in this race last year). Working out which will be the best of the Mullins contingent could well be the key to this market and, for my money, Melon is the best placed to follow Buveur D’Air home.
Can anything beat Apple’s Jade in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle?
It looks unlikely, doesn’t it? Unbeaten in four since she won this race last year, her scalps this season include last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Nichols Canyon and subsequent Irish Champion Hurdle hero Supasundae.
It’s form that none of her rivals in the Mares’ can match and this year’s renewal looks decidedly weaker than last year when she beat off Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag in a pulsating finish.
Those two Willie Mullins-trained mares aren’t available for selection this time around but he bids to beat his old charge with another Rich Ricci-owned mare in the shape of Benie Des Dieux.
The seven-year-old is a fascinating contender. She has looked a brilliant jumper of fences in three chase starts but reverts to hurdles here for the first time since her days in France.
On the bare form her price of 4/1 is a world away from what she should be, but clearly she is held in high regard at home. Given how good she could be over fences, there is an easy comparison to be made with the now-retired Vroum Vroum Mag, a mare that excelled over the bigger obstacles before switching to hurdles extremely successfully.
She won the Mares’ Hurdle on her third start after reverting to timber, though, while this could be a bit of a culture shock for Benie Des Dieux. She will have to be very special to beat Apple’s Jade on her first start over hurdles since her French career, that’s for sure.
Benie Des Dieux could well challenge, her handler is renowned for his outstanding sourcing and campaigning of mares after all. But, perhaps, this year, the biggest challenger to Apple’s Jade might come from the Lambourn yard of Warren Greatrex.
La Bague Au Roi has been in superb form all year, winning three from three. The problem is, her significant improvement has come over three miles and she was strongly considered for the Stayers'. If it turns into a test of stamina she could well challenge, but a more significant concern is that she’ll be done for speed.
Apple’s Jade has plenty of that, she’s high class. I’m sure she could challenge in a Champion Hurdle or a Stayers’ Hurdle. But Gordon Elliott is placing her in the race she has the best chance of winning. And it’s hard to envisage her getting beat.
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