Big-race trends and stats guide: William Hill St Leger

Big-race trends for 2018 St Leger
Big-race trends for 2018 St Leger

Don't miss the key trends ahead of Saturday's William Hill St Leger at Doncaster - the big race on the final day at Town Moor.

We've teamed up with Weatherbys to look at some of the stats that you’ll need to know before parting with your cash ahead of Saturday's William Hill St Leger at Doncaster...

3.35 Doncaster - William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1), QIPCO British Champion Series

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TRENDS

7/10 - from outside first three in the betting

10/10 - ran in at least a Group 3 last time out

2/10 - won by highest-rated horse in race

10/10 - won at least five times

9/10 - had run between three and five times in current season

8/10 - recorded a top-three finish last time out

Bettrends guide

Doncaster stages the final Classic of the season, one which hasn’t always been the easiest to predict with only three favourites obliging in the last ten years. In fact seven of the last 10 winners came from outside of the first three in the betting, so it’s not a race in which you should be put off backing one at a decent price.

A couple of essential stats to follow in recent times are - you need a horse which has recorded between five and nine career starts, whilst their most recent run must have come in at least a Group 3. All of the last 10 winners met this criteria.

This is not great reading for the current favourite, Lah Ti Dar, who has only been seen on a racecourse three times, and only contested a Listed event last time. The latter wouldn’t be a serious concern as she looked a Group 1 winner in the making, but a lack of experience could count against her taking on an experienced bunch of colts.

Other trends to consider are recording a top-three finish last time, something eight of the last 10 winners had all done, whilst the top-rated horse in the line-up doesn’t have a great record, with the ‘best horse’ going in to the race, prevailing only twice in the last ten runnings.

With all things considered it could be worth taking a chance on LOXLEY for Charlie Appleby. Sheikh Mohammed and his Godolphin operation have enjoyed plenty of success in the St Leger, winning it nine times, and this progressive son of New Approach has gone from strength to strength since chasing home Wells Farhh Go (fancied for this before being ruled out by injury), and he has the right profile for this race.

One at an even bigger price to add to our shortlist is Raymond Tusk for the Richard Hannon stable. He also ticks plenty of boxes and warmed up for this with a solid effort in defeat at Newbury last time.

Verdict

  1. LOXLEY
  2. Raymond Tusk

Click on the image below to place your bets with Sky Bet...

Sky Bet are paying an Extra Place in Saturday's St Leger
Sky Bet are paying an Extra Place in Saturday's St Leger


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Newcastle preview and tips

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