Best value bets: Cambridgeshire tips for Newmarket on Saturday September 25
Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 25
1pt e.w. Thunder Love in 2.25 Newmarket at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Go Bears Go in 3.00 Newmarket at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pts e.w. Jean Baptiste in 3.40 Newmarket at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Bell Rock in 3.40 Newmarket at 50/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Already advised:
Bell Rock worth his weight in gold?
Some people won’t be all that comfortable with their Saturday punting revolving around a 35-runner handicap, and that doesn’t have to be the case of course, but there’s nothing quite like the appeal of Newmarket’s bet365 Cambridgeshire and if we’re going to chalk up appreciable profits this weekend, it’ll most likely be in this wide-open race.
Irish Admiral was the long-range fancy and you can view his middle draw (stall 15) one of two ways: Tom Marquand either has a perfect opportunity to track the bunch of horses he sees as the best route into the heart of the race; or he’s in a nightmare spot, effectively stranded down the centre of a course that typically suits those able to stick tight to either flank.
Paul Hanagan flew up the stands’ side to make every yard on 40/1 winner Majestic Dawn 12 months ago, but the far rail seems almost equally as likely the place you want to be based on this week's evidence on the Rowley Mile so far.
Erring on the side of caution regarding William Haggas's Irish Admiral, then, I’m going to avoid doubling down on him and recommend a couple of each-way alternatives breaking from single-figure stalls who like to race prominently, starting with top weight BELL ROCK whose course record reads 1131.
All of that fine Newmarket form has come on good or good to firm ground and the third was in this race last year, when looking a little unlucky not to be second best on the day given the interference he suffered late on.
Granted, he’s another 5lb higher in the ratings this time but William Carver takes off 3lb and the horse has produced even stronger form in 2021, the pick of which was a two and a half-length defeat of Maydanny (won the Golden Mile and Doonside Cup since) over this course and distance on May 1.
Aside from failing to beat a rival home in the Royal Hunt Cup, Bell Rock has run really well in Group Three company for the rest of the campaign and clearly hasn’t been ideally suited to the way those races have unfolded, never more apparent than when a staying-on second behind thriving, all-the-way winner Artistic Rifles at Haydock last time out.
He finished nicely ahead of My Oberon and Lord Glitters – horses rated 114 and 115 respectively – that day so his raw class is there for all to see and what he really wants is a big field and a strong gallop.
Baptiste another course winner to consider
Right at the other end of the handicap, in receipt of over a stone and a half in weight from Bell Rock, I’m drawn to JEAN BAPTISTE at huge prices as well.
Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, he joined the highly impressive George Boughey team in the spring of this year and was finally rewarded for some excellent efforts in defeat when beating Lucander in first-time cheekpieces over 10 furlongs here in May.
After two more outings he was put away with the autumn in mind and made a promising return from 75 days off when third at Chester earlier this month, finishing three lengths adrift of subsequent Listed winner Victory Chime, with Richard Fahey’s Spirit Dancer – taken out of the Cambridgeshire on Friday morning – in the runner-up spot.
Jean Baptiste looked a little rusty as he was awkward from the stalls and then got caught flat-footed when the tempo increased but he’ll presumably improve for it and ran pretty well with this sort of test in mind.
He’s another who loves to sit handily off a strong pace and given the success Boughey had with Mark Crehan earlier in the year, I like the booking of 5lb claimer Aled Beech who, encouragingly, has won on his last two rides for the yard.
Jean Baptiste, who would have coped with some rain but goes on any ground, runs from a mark just 3lb higher than when successful in the spring and still retains some potential after four runs in headgear. At such long odds, I can’t let him go unbacked.
The power of Love in Cheveley Park
Boughey might be able to pull off a bit of a shock in the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes too.
He runs Corazon and THUNDER LOVE, the latter looking worth an each-way interest with firms paying four places, despite having 7-10lb to find with the pick of these rivals on the book.
This will be unbeaten favourite Sacred Bridge’s toughest test so far and Ger Lyons’ challenger is plenty short enough given her Curragh form hasn’t worked out particularly well, while there probably isn’t much between Lowther one-two Zain Claudette and Sandrine though you wouldn’t necessarily choose rattling quick ground for the latter, in an ideal world. It’s very hard to know whether stalls one and two will be a positive for that pair either.
Thunder Love, drawn in eight, had a break after making a promising start to her career in the spring, when winning back-to-back races by wide margins on the Kempton Polytrack.
She’s had to learn quickly on the turf since returning, shaping really well from a very prominent pitch in the Listed Roses Stakes at the Ebor meeting before another good run in the Flying Childers last time.
Rossa Ryan was a little more patient at Doncaster but the filly got bumped at halfway and then got stuck behind the weakening Korker (won Haydock nursery off 88 on Friday) which didn’t do her any good at all. Despite that she stuck to the task to finish fifth, reversing form with York winner Attagirl in the process.
Winner Caturra had also emerged from the Roses Stakes, while Flying Childers runner-up Armor had finished fourth to Perfect Power when sent off favourite for the Prix Morny, so the overall standard of form reads well.
Thunder Love looked a bit happier faced with some quick ground on Town Moor so conditions won’t be an issue but the main source of potential improvement for the daughter of Profitable is the step up to six furlongs.
Her sire hasn’t exactly made a massive impact at stud but plenty of the two-year-olds he’s produced have improved a fair chunk for the move from five to six furlongs (Richard Hannon’s Bosh among five winners from 21 juveniles to have struck over six having raced over the minimum on their previous outing).
On top of that, Thunder Love is a half-sister to five winners at seven furlongs and beyond so the room for manoeuvre is there even prior to factoring in the remarkable improvement Boughey seems to bring about in the youngsters in his care.
She’s around 20/1 in bet365’s ‘without the favourite’ market which is worth exploring, but I prefer the idea of opposing Sacred Bridge on this occasion.
Bears to go through the gears from the front
The bet in the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes has to be David Loughnane's GO BEARS GO, who was beaten a head by market leader Perfect Power in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and has subsequently continued his development with two excellent runs in Ireland.
He burst a few local bubbles when winning the Group Two Railway Stakes upped to six furlongs for the first time on June 26 and went down fighting when third to Ebro River on easier ground in the Group One Phoenix Stakes over the same Curragh course last month.
He has a small gap to bridge when it comes to the form of the Fahey-trained favourite but there's a distinct lack of pace signed up here, which will really play to Go Bears Go's strengths.
It's not hard to imagine him getting quite an easy time of things on the front end and his natural speed should carry him a long way to winning this.
Published at 1500 BST on 24/09/21
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
