Saturday's Bets of the Day: Selections for horse racing, football, tennis and UFC
Selections across the three feature race meetings, international football, UFC and tennis make up Saturday's Bets of the Day.
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Racing
Things could work out nicely for Michael Dods’ Northern Express in the Coral “Racing Super Series” Nursery Handicap at York on Saturday. The son of Zoffany makes his handicap debut off a mark of 82 on the back of two promising runs at Beverley and Ayr, his victory on debut at the former course working out well. The second, Il Bandito, won a Newcastle maiden on Wednesday and the fourth, Bear Me In Mind, has won twice since, and she was beaten over eight lengths getting 5lb at Beverley. Northern Express was too keen when narrowly beaten by the reopposing Eclipse De Lunar at Ayr, but he shaped like much the best horse and the hope is that Galah ensures a strong gallop from the front here, enabling the selection to work his way into things from off the pace on ground he likes.
Three-year-olds Highest Ground and Darain will attract a lot of attention in the Darley Stakes and both are respected but EPIC HERO will be a tough nut to crack and makes plenty of appeal.
Simon and Ed Crisford’s charge showed his liking for testing conditions when chasing home Certain Lad in the Sky Bet Strensall Stakes at York and was completely undone by a lack of early pace at Sandown next time. There are no worries on that score here and with the yard continuing to go well, a big run is on the cards.
Paul Nicholls has always felt we won’t see the best of this horse until he’s faced with a big-field handicap scenario over fences and while 13 runners may not seem a lot here, the race should certainly be run to suit with some proven pace-setters in the line-up. That obviously wasn’t the case for the strong-travelling Mont Des Avaloirs last season when he was beaten in small-field events conditions, including a Grade 2 at Newbury won by subsequent RSA Chase hero Champ. He’s won when fresh in the past and, from an eminently workable handicap mark of 142, there’s loads to like about his claims as he returns to action this term, including the fact he won his bumper here in 2017.
Football
Germany on the -2 goal handicap at 13/5 feels like a smart play given the circumstances, and the fact that the Ukraine were thrashed 4-0 by Spain in their last competitive match even before being hit by a spate of withdrawals.
If Ukraine come out of this match having only lost 3-0 then they will probably be pretty pleased.
Joachim Low's team are far from defensively sound, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches, but I think they will do on Saturday night. That recent leakiness means I'm not backing them to do so, and going heavy on the over goals instead.
Tennis
Swiatek has been a fast starter in all bar her quarter-final over Martina Trevisan. She’s won the first set in eight games or fewer in four of her six matches, including against the baffled Halep.
You can get 11/4 about this happening again, which looks tempting. To add weight to the argument, Kenin has lost the first set twice this tournament.
This bet eliminates the potential issue of Swiatek faltering as the finish line approaches. She’s 11/8 to win in straight sets which looks acceptable for those prepared to carry that risk.
However, in a match which looks hard to call with any conviction, I’d prefer to take the higher price.
Greyhounds
- Troy Firebird (T6) – 8.21 Nottingham
The market for heat 4 at 8.21 at present revolves around Deerjet Sydney (Trap 3) who posted a Timeform figure of 126 when registering a three-and-a-half-length success eight days ago. Yet, equally as notable that day was his marked move towards the rails operating from trap 4. With that in mind the switch to the white jacket outside a pair of moderate breakers should hold no fears and he ought to be seen to good effect again.
However, it may pay to side with sole wide seed TROY FIREBIRD (Trap 6), who recorded a quicker final time in defeat in round one, to come out on top.
A smart performer when getting it right (current Timeform Master Rating of 130), David Mullins’ charge should have plenty of room to open up out wide, particularly with Vics Charm (Trap 5, TF116) expected to be edging left on his approach to the first bend as he did from this position last week.
Troy Firebird has clearly taken well to Nottingham, a circuit which can be difficult to navigate and he appeals at odds as big as 3/1 early doors.
UFC
Moraes vs Sandhagen is going to be an incredible fight, no doubt about it, but I’m backing the Brazilian to come out on top.
“Magic” is a veteran of the sport now, this will be his 31st pro fight and in the 30 he has had so far, he has won 16 within the distance, and at a slight underdog price I think he is the value bet here.
Sandhagen, meanwhile, is only just coming into his own, he’s 12-2 and is coming off a devastating submission loss to Aljamain Sterling, but he will still be a tough opponent for Moraes given his range advantage.
The range advantage Sandhagen has though should be negated by Moraes, the Brazilian has vetaran experience and is fantastic at working his way into range to deliver damage, just look at how he finished Rapael Assuncao and Aljamain Sterling for the evidence.
Better yet, Sandhagen showed in his last fight that his grappling skills are not as developed as some other fighters in the division, and that spells danger when you factor in Moraes has six submission wins and a black belt in Brazilain Jiu Jitsu.
For this fight, I expect Sandhagen to keep the fight at range, but for Moraes to slip into striking distance and drop Sandhagen before jumping on top to finish the fight with ground and pound or a submission.
Both Rodrigo Nascimento and Chris Daukaus will have the opportunity to grab their second wins inside the UFC’s Octagon on Saturday night. They both impressed in their recent debuts, finishing their opponents with relative ease.
For me, one fighter has the much greater potential for long-term success in the heavyweight division, and that is Nascimento. The Brazilian is both well-rounded and fast, which are unique traits for someone of his size. His striking is a work in progress, but his footwork keeps him out of danger as he looks to close the distance and secure a takedown.
Daukaus is the more technical striker of the two, and the American could cause problems for his opponent with his sharp and accurate right hand. The stumbling block for Daukaus is his distance management and cage control, as he often allows his opponents to back him up against the fence when they apply forward pressure.
Nascimento has shown a real talent for takedowns against the fence, which will change this fight completely. On the mat, Nascimento has very slick Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and should be able to work his way to a dominant position, where he can finish via strikes or submission.
Overall, I am expecting Nascimento to dictate the pace and distance of this fight. By doing so, he will create openings for takedowns and should take control of the fight on the mat, whilst avoiding the power shots of Daukaus along the way.
Nascimento has finished all of his eight bouts, with six victories coming by submission. Whilst I think this is the most likely outcome, heavyweight fighters all pack tremendous power in each punch, so I am hesitant to be so specific. Look for Nascimento to make a big statement on Saturday night, winning inside the distance.
NFL Sunday
The 2-2 Carolina Panthers go into this game against the winless 0-4 Atlanta Falcons as underdogs for some reason, and that just seems wrong on both the records and the performances of the two sides.
Carolina have lost star man Christian McCaffrey but won their last two games against the Chargers and Cardinals as underdogs while the Falcons have suffered a couple of heart-breaking late losses and a couple of blow-outs, showing versatility in finding different ways to lose games.
Atlanta hasn’t been able to keep a single team from scoring at least 30 points against them at all this season, and the Panthers are improving with Teddy Bridgewater at QB, so they’re certainly capable of keeping that scoring run up.
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