AFC South offseason update: Enter Julio and Wentz

Enter Julio and Wentz

The AFC South was the definition of a two-horse race in 2020, and it is shaping up to be the same again in 2021.

While Jacksonville will be a fascinating storyline after hiring Urban Meyer as HC and snagging Trevor Lawrence in the draft, they are highly unlikely to be challenging Tennessee and Indianapolis come December.

Nope, 2021 is all about the arms race at the top of the division. There was only a tie-breaker between the Titans and Colts when the 2020 season ended, and we expect another thrilling race.

Both teams have made significant trade acquisitions in the offseason - the Colts trading for former Philly signal caller Carson Wentz and the Titans grabbing future Hall of Fame WR Julio Jones from Atlanta.

There are question marks about both players, for very different reasons. But they add lustre and intrigue to a division which will have plenty in the coming months.

We haven’t even talked about Houston yet - that’s because we generally put our hands over our eyes when we hear that franchise referenced. Its woes deepened during the offseason with a slew of allegations of sexual assault and harassment against star QB Deshaun Watson.

The Texans have no idea yet if Watson will be under center for Week 1 (remember he was angling for a trade before those allegations hit), while they also have a new head coach in David Culley and a roster ruined by questionable front-office moves in recent years.

At this stage 0-17 looks way more likely than any thoughts of a winning record. Grim times indeed down in Texas.

AFC South in 2020: Titans win, just

The Indianapolis Colts might have lost the AFC South title in Week 1 - it was literally that close.

The Colts opened their year with a 27-20 loss at Jacksonville, a reverse which took on bigger meaning as the year went on. It would be the Jags’ only win of the season, and the difference between a division title and a wild-card berth for Indy.

Tennessee would clinch the division in Week 17 with a 41-38 win over Houston, ending a thrilling race.

For Indy, the Philip Rivers experiment brought improvement, but not the playoff success that had been anticipated. It ended after a year when Rivers finally decided to retire after a stellar career.

For the Titans, Derrick Henry was again an absolute beast in the backfield, adding to that select band of players to have rushed for more than 2000 yards in an NFL season.

Ryan Tannehill, NFL Comeback Player Of The Year in 2019, was again really good at QB for the Titans - his renaissance might be one of the more impressive reclamation projects the league has seen in recent years. Along with Henry, he makes for one of the more balanced attacks in the NFL.

The Jags, as we’ve already said, had a horrific year, but there is always a silver lining. The Jets somehow managed to mess up ‘tank for Trevor (Lawrence that is)’ by winning two games late on, leaving Jacksonville with the first pick in the draft. And future hope as a franchise.

Houston was Houston - sadly. Watson, without question one of the finest quarterbacks in pro football, played heroically at times but even he couldn’t cancel out all the issues elsewhere on the roster. Cue a massively disappointing 4-12 campaign.

Final Standings

11-5 Tennessee Titans

11-5 Indianapolis Colts

4-12 Houston Texans

1-15 Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans in 2021

AFC South Odds: 11/10

Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

Head Coach: Mike Vrabel

Tennessee has pretty much all of the key components for a deep post-season run in 2021.

Head coach Mike Vrabel is bizarrely underrated in so many polls for the best around, but he is right up there in our opinion.

The aforementioned Tannehill is a million miles away from the failure that Miami ditched in what at the time was a very low-level trade. Incredible business by the Titans in hindsight.

Henry is unquestionably the best running back in the league right now, and he runs behind a stellar offensive line. A pretty good starting point for a Super Bowl run - and that is exactly what is expected in the deep south in 2021.

The trade to acquire Jones was with a mind to put this team over the top, and enable it to beat the Chiefs - the ultimate goal. The road to SoFi Stadium and Super Bowl LVI will likely go through Arrowhead again.

If the Julio trade works out, it will be a stroke of genius. The price - which includes a 2022 second-round pick - was eminently fair if he’s healthy, which is the question mark.

Jones played only nine games in 2020, blaming his failure to let a hamstring tear heal properly for that missed time. Was it a sign of a body at age 32 starting to break down? Or a blip?

If he is at 100 percent, the Titans offense should take another leap with Jones and A.J. Brown paired in a formidable WR tandem. Brown averaged more than 20 yards a catch in 2020 (including a league-leading 6.2 after catch). Having Julio on the opposite side makes it harder for defences to plan for him. Quite the upgrade on the departed Corey Davis (signed with the Jets).

The loss of TE Jonnu Smith - who signed a big-money deal to move to New England - should also be mitigated somewhat if the Titans target Jones regularly and effectively in the redzone.

That vaunted Tennessee offensive line should be even better in 2021 by the way, thanks to the return of tackle Taylor Lewan (missed 11 games due to a torn ACL in 2020) and the addition of second-round draft pick Dillon Radunz (OT, North Dakota State).

If the Titans had a weakness in 2020, it was undoubtedly the defence - which ranked a lowly 28th overall and 29th against the pass. Quite simply the pass rush wasn’t good enough and the secondary wasn’t good enough to cope with opposing QBs having a ton of time to operate.

The good news? Tennessee deployed significant resources in a bid to change all that for 2021.

The front office moved to beef up the pass rush by shelling out $82.5million over five years to land prized free agent OLB Bud Dupree from Pittsburgh.

Dupree was enjoying another stellar year (8 sacks) when he tore his ACL in early December. He should be ready to go for 2021 and more than make up for the loss of Jadeveon Clowney in free agency.

The Titans lost star CB Adoree’ Jackson in free agency, but began to reshape the secondary with the pickup of Janoris Jenkins to provide veteran depth.

Tennesse then lucked out in the draft too with the consensus best cornerback, Caleb Farley from Virginia Tech, falling to number 22. Farley underwent back surgery in the lead-up to the draft, putting off a ton of teams. He could be a steal.

Washington CB Elijah Molden was another terrific pickup in Round 3, while Pittsburgh DE Rashad Weaver (Round 4) will provide further depth up front.

Summary:

The house is built in Tennessee, and nothing less than a run deep into the post-season will be acceptable.

The trade for Jones is specifically seen as the final piece in a Super Bowl jigsaw. Tennessee has terrific balance on offense and the defensive additions should shore up that side of the ball.

With the questions over Wentz in Indy, the Titans absolutely rate the safest bet in a very tight South market right now.

Indianapolis Colts in 2021

AFC South Odds: 21/20

Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

Head Coach: Frank Reich

It’s all about Carson in Indianapolis this season. Can Indy HC Frank Reich return Wentz to the sort of passer who was the number 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft and an MVP contender on that 2017 Super Bowl team before a catastrophic knee injury.

It says much that the Eagles, having invested a ton of draft capital to go up and get Wentz in the draft, and having given him a $128million four-year deal in 2019, were willing to cut ties so quickly.

The fact they did so for what could turn out to be a pretty cheap price (a third-round pick in 2021 and a conditional second in 2022) shows just how much the former North Dakota State signal caller regressed in 2020. He was horrible. Philly badly wanted him and his contract off the books.

The intriguing part here is the fact that the move reunites Wentz with Reich. It was Reich, remember, who was OC for Wentz during his early years in Philadelphia. The good ones...

If Reich can ‘fix’ Carson then this trade will be a steal. If not then the Colts have lost a year or two, but very little in terms of future draft capital.

Wentz replaces the terrific Rivers, who retired after a season at the controls in Indy, and he will run an offense which was arguably the team’s weakness in 2020 (comparatively).

The receiving corps needs to be better in 2021 and it is time for 2020 second-round pick Michael Pittman to convert on the promise he showed at times during his rookie year. T.Y. Hilton is as dependable as they come, but the Colts need some star power to take the top off defences.

On the ground, the Colts have excellent backfield options in superb 2020 rookie Jonathan Taylor and veteran Marlon Mack. They run behind a front which includes all-world guard Quenton Nelson. The man who makes O-Line play watchable for the NFL casual - just check out the tapes of him pancaking defenders, highlight-reel stuff.

One question mark will be the replacement for retired left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Former Chief Eric Fisher was signed to fill the void, but he is coming off a torn ACL sustained in post-season. Wentz took 50 sacks in 2020, and anything like that in ‘21 would be very bad.

If the Indy offense needs to click into top gear in 2021, there are few such concerns about the ‘D’. The Colts ranked eighth overall in 2020, and second against the run.

The trade for San Francisco star DeForest Buckner paid off handsomely, adding a blue-chip piece to a fearsome front. And Indy got to add another potential difference maker in the draft when highly-touted Michigan DE Kwity Paye somehow fell to #21. Vanderbilt DE Dayo Odeyingbo was then selected in Round 2.

Throw in the terrific LB Darius Leonard, and it’s easy to see why this Indy front seven is as good as it gets in the NFL today.

The story against the pass is not quite so good - there were some horrible numbers in a mid-season slump for the Colts. But the defence should be excellent again in ‘21.

Summary:

The Colts have appeared to be a franchise QB away from contending for a Super Bowl for a couple of years now. This season it is all on Wentz.

If Reich can return him to the player he used to be, the Colts have a terrific chance to go deep into the post-season. If not, they could even regress from 2020.

One footnote to all of the QB talk, we’d like it if the Colts had a veteran option as backup. Recent draft picks Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger are all they have right now...

Houston Texans in 2021

AFC South Odds: 25/1

Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

Head Coach: David Culley

David Culley might have the most thankless task in the NFL in 2021. Yep he gets a nice salary, but he’s stepping into one of the most dysfunctional franchises there is.

This is a team which somehow allowed HC Bill O’Brien to become GM as well to preside over some horrible personnel decisions which will haunt this team for a long time to come (in particular that awful DeAndre Hopkins trade).

Now Houston is stumbling towards 2021 not knowing whether its elite QB will be on the field or not. Watson had already expressed his desire to be traded BEFORE all those tawdry allegations became public. So we know he doesn’t want to play in Houston, and he might not be able to play anywhere.

If Watson is eventually suspended, the Texans will be in limbo - unable to get anything for their franchise star and unable to play him either. Things couldn’t get much grimmer. When you think that Watson was brilliant in 2020 and Houston still finished 4-12, what would they be without him?

Right now NFL nomad Tyrod Taylor is set to lead the Houston offense if Watson can’t or won’t. The next option after that is Stanford’s Davis Mills, taken in Round 3 of the draft.

Houston will need somebody in its unimpressive-looking receiving corps to step up to the plate in 2021 - maybe another third-round draft pick Nico Collins out of Michigan could produce quickly.

The Texans made a ton of free-agent signings in the offseason, but pretty much all were in that second or third wave. Bargain-basement shopping to fill holes on a diminishing depth chart.

Throw in the fact Houston didn’t have a draft pick until Round 3 (courtesy of that 2019 trade with Miami for Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills) and it’s easy to see why the situation is so dire.

On the defensive side of the ball Houston lost another franchise cornerstone in J.J. Watt - who bolted for Arizona in free agency. Long in the tooth yes, but his outspoken views on the state of the franchise beforehand say much about Houston’s issues right now.

The Texans will hope the trade for Miami pass rusher Shaq Lawson pays dividends, while former Patriot OT Marcus Cannon should add depth to a line which is not awful.

Summary:

How do you predict what might happen this season in Houston? Right now the needle appears to be somewhere between 0-17 and 5-12. Dependent on what happens at QB.

The best scenario might be that Houston is able to trade Watson for a strong return at some stage, and start building through the draft in 2022. Right back to basics.

Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021

AFC South Odds: 8/1

Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Head Coach: Urban Meyer

When the Dallas Cowboys were chosen to feature on the hit training-camp docuseries ‘Hard Knocks’ we were a little disappointed - we cannot lie.

We'd have preferred Jacksonville to get the call - there are a ton of intriguing storylines:

• Former college head coaching star Urban Meyer finally steps into the pro ranks.
• Generational QB talent Lawrence enters the league with the chance to reinvigorate this franchise.
• The return of former NFL QB Tim Tebow - this time trying to make it as a tight end.

Throw in the fact that Tebow was a national-championship winner at QB for Meyer at Florida, and you have plenty of narratives to get interested in.

The Jags started 2020 with that win over Indianapolis - after that it was literally downhill all the way. Fifteen consecutive losses. The bright spot though was picking up Lawrence.

The former Clemson standout, already the front runner in the betting to be NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year in 2021, is seen as the best QB to enter the league since Andrew Luck was drafted by the Colts in 2012.

Lawrence gives the Jags hope, and you’d have to think he was a major reason Meyer finally decided to give the NFL a shot.

Jacksonville started to build around Trevor in the draft, taking Stanford OT Walker Little in Round 2 in a bid to shore up a leaky line. No repeats of what happened to Joe Burrow please.

Another offensive piece arrived via Jacksonville’s second first-round pick, in the shape of Clemson RB Travis Etienne. A college teammate of Lawrence and a multi-talented back.

The Jags have some pieces for Lawrence to throw to - not elite but promising. Youngsters D.J, Chark and Laviska Shenault are joined by the excellent free-agent pickup and former Lion Marvin Jones.

Tyler Eifert goes into camp as the lead option at tight end - it is tough to see position novice Tebow at age 33 beating him out!

On the defensive side of the ball, Jacksonville needs to make serious improvement too. Linebacker Myles Jack is still very much around, but needs some elite talent to accompany him.

Georgia cornerback Tyson Campbell was an excellent pickup in the second round of the draft, a year after C.J. Henderson was selected in the first. Both need to be starters in 2021.

Up front the Jags just could not get to the quarterback in 2020. Part of that was injuries to DE Josh Allen (yes there is another one in the NFL). He had been a star as a rookie, and a return to full health should boost the Jacksonville pass rush significantly.

Summary:

Intriguing goings-on down in Jacksonville this offseason. And they could be anything in 2021. 4-13 would not surprise us, and neither would 9-8. We’re hovering somewhere in the middle in terms of win projections.

A lot will depend on how quickly Lawrence translates his elite skills to the pro game, and how Jacksonville can protect and support him.

The Meyer factor adds yet another fascinating storyline, and of course whether Tebow is still around come September. We’ll sell on that particular one thanks.

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