WGC-Mexico Championship final round betting preview and tips

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2pts Justin Thomas to win his three-ball at evens

We have reached the 54-hole stage of the year's first WGC after moving day lived up to its name.

Halfway leader Bryson DeChambeau, who at one stage held a three-shot lead, stumbled badly with three bogeys over his final six holes, as his putter, which had served him so well over the first two rounds, finally deserted him.

The man to take the greatest advantage was Justin Thomas. A play-off loser here in 2018, Thomas compiled an excellent six-under round of 65, posting eight birdies sandwiched between bogeys at his first and last holes of the day, and he goes in to Sunday with a one-shot lead over Patrick Reed and Erik van Rooyen.

Thomas holds a hugely impressive record of eight victories from the 11 times he has led outright or held a share of the lead after 54 holes on the PGA Tour, and he's likely to prove hard to stop here.

A two-time winner already this season in Korea and Hawaii, and clearly fond of Chapultepec, Thomas is undoubtedly the man to beat, and I certainly wouldn’t be arguing with the even-money that he gets it done.

With Reed and van Rooyen holding a three-shot advantage over those in fourth place, they are in the best position to mount a challenge to Thomas.

Reed now heads the putting stats for the week and will relish a chance to avenge his play-off defeat at the hands of JT at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. Van Rooyen meanwhile has felt hugely at home in the conditions this week, with both the altitude level and the kikuyu rough being very similar to what he is used to in South Africa.

While the tournament then is in theory at the mercy of Thomas, Reed and van Rooyen the spectre of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm looms large over their shoulders and it could well be from this pair that the biggest challenge to the leader emerges.

Rahm in particular showed on Saturday what is possible on this track by posting a new course record of 61, which included nine birdies and a hole in one on the 17th - something which will live long in the memory.

Both four shots back and in a tie for fourth place with DeChambeau, he and McIlroy will know that to put serious pressure on Thomas today they will have to post something around 64 or better. Both will undoubtedly come out with a hugely aggressive mindset and it is quite possible they will feed off each other as Ryder Cup team-mates who know the early holes are vital in building a score.

In addition there is a further sub-plot whereby if Rahm does take the title, McIlroy will need to finish no worse than in a two-way tie for third place, otherwise the Spaniard will unseat the Northern Irishman and rise to the top of the official world golf rankings for the first time.

My strong feeling then is that Thomas will take home the trophy, however I am not quite confident enough to back him at even-money to do so allowing for the fact that he could shoot a strong round in the region of 67, only to lose out to some heroics from McIlroy or Rahm.

At the same price, it makes far more sense to back Thomas to win his three-ball and that goes down as the bet of the day.

If Thomas is to miss out on the trophy my hunch is it could well be at the hands of someone from outside the final group, whereas with a nervy van Rooyen tasting his first experience of contending for a WGC, he might only have Reed to worry about up front.

Evens that he gets the better of his Ryder Cup team-mate looks very reasonable and removes all concerns over what McIlroy and Rahm could do. It's set up to be a gripping final round and the best way to profit from it is to simplify things a little.

Posted at 0930 GMT on 23/02/20

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