Ben Coley's Travelers Championship preview & tips
Ben Coley previews the Travelers Championship, where Jordan Spieth looks the man to beat.
Recommended bets: Travelers Championship
3pts win Jordan Spieth at 10/1 - should love this test and looks comfortably the most likely winner
1pt e.w. Bud Cauley at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - close to a win and has some very solid form here
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The introduction of strokes-gained data has revolutionised golf, in the same way that it once revolutionised baseball and will gradually do the same in every sport where there are millions at stake.
Strokes-gained gives context to numbers. In golf, this means we can separate two players who each hit 75% of greens and find out which secured the greater advantage in doing so, or we can prove that 30 putts per round can sometimes represent a better performance than 25.
But there remain one or two events where oldspeak is relevant and the Travelers Championship is among them, because year-on-year it favours players who, both historically and very recently, had hit greens for fun.
I pointed it out on the eve of last year's event, played in August, and Russell Knox was therefore an appropriate winner. He entered the week inside the top five for greens in regulation, first among the field assembled in Connecticut, and ranked seventh en route to his second PGA Tour title.
In 2015, Bubba Watson won the title for a second time after a play-off with Paul Casey. Casey ended the season ranked fifth for greens, Bubba 19th, and Knox, confirming his make-up, seventh. Watson actually hit few greens during the week itself, but Casey led the way and third-placed Brian Harman was on his tail.
In 2014, Kevin Streelman's birdie blitz rather undermines this line of analysis as he had struck the ball poorly all season, just like some of the other surprising champions in years before, but so many of those he left behind on Sunday do fit the mould, none more so than Sergio Garcia in a tie for second.
Graham DeLaet is another regular contender here and if we go further back, past champions Stewart Cink, Kenny Perry and Hunter Mahan were all known for the frequency with which they hit greens before landing this title. For once, greens in regulation is a very relevant starting point.
There are, as ever, plenty of other factors to consider on any given week but two more stand out at the Travelers: course ties, most notably with Riviera, and the timing of this event and what effect an easier-than-usual US Open and stronger-than-usual field will have on the leaderboard.
First, Riviera. Knox has only played there once and missed the cut, but I'm intrigued that third-placed Patrick Rodgers was in the battle for second with nine holes to go in this year's event in Los Angeles, because it supports a link established through Garcia, Watson, DeLaet, Casey and many more.
Of course, the above have all played Ryder Cups or Presidents Cups and are class acts who can turn up and shoot low numbers anywhere. But Freddie Jacobson's sole PGA Tour win came here at TPC River Highlands and he so nearly won at Riviera. Aaron Baddeley has won at the Riv and looked on course to do so here before finishing fourth. Ryan Moore and Marc Leishman love both layouts.
As for timing, the event returns to its regular post-US Open slot and that perhaps explains why we've seen some shocks. From 2010 to 2014, every winner was available at 50/1 or bigger and there have been many players close to victory who undoubtedly capitalised on an opportunity, the world's best so often having been beaten up by a tough golf course or drained by being in the mix for a major title.
That wasn't the case last year as the event moved from its traditional slot, but now returned to parity we could see a number of surprise contenders. In 2016, the Quicken Loans National followed the US Open and it was won by Billy Hurley III. The RBC Canadian Open followed the US PGA and was won by Jhonattan Vegas. These are by no means exceptions: top-class players are often vulnerable post-top-class event.
So, let's start the conclusion by stating that most of the market leaders, who in the main look vulnerable anyway, are fairly easily opposed.
Rory McIlroy might enjoy this place at his best but was very poor last week and needs rounds. Jason Day remains in and out and appears less suited to the course, while Justin Thomas endured a disappointing Sunday having started the final round of the US Open as favourite and will do well to respond. Ditto Casey, whose demise came a day earlier.
Jordan Spieth is the exception and is worth a bet to confirm that he is suited to River Highlands ahead of what is his debut in the event.
Spieth is hitting a lot of greens - he's second only to Kyle Stanley in this field, third overall for the season - and for some time he's looked on the verge of another win.
The Texan was runner-up defending his title at Colonial, started well en route to 13th in the Memorial while preparing for the US Open, and at least finished well at Erin Hills thanks to a closing 69 for 35th place.
Granted, the latter was not what he was aiming for at the start of the week but a rain-softened course didn't play into his hands and I expect a pretty dramatic improvement for this ease in grade and more obviously suitable layout.
Spieth hasn't hit the heights of 2015 and may never again, but he's still won four times in fewer than 40 events since that season ended, confirming that odds of 10/1 are at worst a good representation of his chances.
And unlike McIlroy, whose focus is majors, WGCs and the FedEx Cup, Spieth continues to collect regulation PGA Tour titles. His last three victories have come away from the glare of the high-profile events, by a combined 15 shots for good measure.
Spieth described his ball-striking on Sunday as 'awesome' and it's a matter of time before the putter clicks. At a course where tee-to-green play is more important, with the necessary ties to Riviera and the right statistical profile, I'm very optimistic.
The aforementioned Stanley is far less likely to turn in the putting improvement required and looks no more than fairly priced at 50s, while the likes of Martin Flores and Robert Garrigus are so woefully out of form that it's hard to make a case for them despite positives from the GIR charts and huge odds.
So, next for me is William McGirt, who gained his first PGA Tour title just over a year ago by beating a similar field and is capable of doubling up here.
At 39th in greens hit, McGirt continues to strike the ball nicely and while he wasn't a factor last weekend, he showed up nicely enough for a couple of rounds on a golf course he admitted was just a little too long for him in the conditions.
It may prove to be a positive that McGirt didn't contend at the US Open as he should arrive here relatively fresh and it's his ability to perform on the back of a major which he's either not played in or not contended for which really piques my interest.
Just last year, he followed a disappointing week at Oakmont with seventh place in the Bridgestone Invitational, while his standout effort of 2017 so far came when third just days on from his debut in the Masters.
Twice, he's finished runner-up in the Canadian Open, played days after the Open Championship. On both occasions, McGirt capitalised on the fact he hadn't been out to the UK and back and so nearly landed a first PGA Tour title.
From just a handful of opportunities, then, he's shown an element of opportunism which will serve him well at a course he's got the right game for, finishing no worse than 31st in his last three visits and driving the ball particularly well in the most recent of them.
McGirt also covers the Riviera base - he was sixth there in 2014, 14th in 2015 and 20th in 2016 - but this shorter par 70 is even better for his game and at 110/1, he looks the standout each-way bet.
Kevin Na is another short hitter who should benefit for the drop in trip of around 1,000 yards after a respectable T32 in the US Open.
Na was the subject of much discussion after bemoaning the length of the rough at Erin Hills, but once the talking was over he outperformed even his own expectations with three solid rounds, none more so than an opening 68.
Prior to that, he'd flown out to Korea for a confidence-boosting 13th and the signs are that he's returning to his early-2017 form, which included fourth place at Riviera, where he was also third in 2011.
Na's record at TPC River Highlands is less impressive, but nonetheless catches the eye. In each of his last two visits he's paid the price for a poor start and rebounded on Friday, only to just miss out on the weekend and a chance to climb the leaderboard.
Only one of those came in the last five years but a decade ago he finished ninth here and the course should suit a player who typically hits fairways and greens, but also led the field in strokes-gained putting last week.
We all know there are some issues with getting over the line, but at a three-figure price that's not so much of a concern and this event has been kind to similar players in the past.
Finally, some old favourites are whittled down to Bud Cauley, who is major player here on the form he showed prior to missing the cut in the US Open.
Whether that was the case of the well running dry or simply one of those weeks remains to be seen, but at the price I can give him the benefit of the doubt.
Cauley hits it well - he's 50th in greens but is much better than that when on-song, such as when second in the same category on his penultimate start - and demonstrated as much when 11th here in 2014, skipping round in 63 strokes on Thursday.
His relationship with the event extends back to 2011, when he carded four under-par rounds for 24th in his second start as a professional, the first having come in the US Open a week earlier.
Like McGirt, he also has some eye-catching post-major form away from his performances here. Cauley placed after both the Open and the US PGA in 2012, while earlier this year he was a solid ninth in the RBC Heritage just after the Masters.
Indeed, in terms of world ranking points, 10 of his best 20 finishes have come either a week before, a week after or during the week of a major championship, so the timing of the Travelers is ideal for him.
Cauley has looked on the verge of an overdue breakthrough for some time now and a ball-striker's golf course like this one, with so many of the big names vulnerable, represents a serious opportunity.
Posted at 1215 BST on 20/06/17.
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