Who makes the European Ryder Cup side? Ben Coley takes a look
Europe are now underdogs for the 2018 Ryder Cup in Paris, but just who can we expect to make up Thomas Bjorn's side?
As the Presidents Cup came to its predictable conclusion, there was much whooping about the potential for a US domination of all team events - including the Ryder Cup.
One noted US journalist suggested that such is the strength of this band of US brothers, that they may ruin the Ryder Cup by dominating it for 'decades'. Yes, an easy Presidents Cup win, coupled with last year's Ryder Cup success, has people of sound mind forecasting six or more landslide wins for the US.
This U.S. team is so deep/talented/cohesive they're gonna ruin the Ryder Cup, too. I fear a decade+ of American blowouts.
— Alan Shipnuck (@AlanShipnuck) October 1, 2017
It goes without saying that this is all a little silly. One can forgive golf fans for getting excited about a team which is clearly blessed with extraordinary talent, but you'd hope that those in the media might take a more level-headed, less partisan approach to analysis.
I do believe the US will be hard to beat in Paris next year. As I wrote a month ago, they were a bet at 6/5 and it's no surprise they're into 10/11. They deserve to be favourites, notwithstanding the fact that their last victory on European soil came in 1993, meaning it'll be 25 years since an overseas success come tee-off.
In favour of the United States is a phenomenally talented side, guaranteed to be the better one on paper, and the fact that they will defend meaning a 14-14 tie keeps the Cup in red, white and blue. In favour of Europe is the fact that they relish the role of underdog, they know Le Golf National well, and they too boast some exceptional players.
Perhaps crucially, the togetherness of the US side at last appears to match that of their opponents and therein lies their perceived edge. But that's all it is: an edge. Ryder Cups can be won and lost on a single shot, never mind a single session, and it takes more than an edge to confident predict one outcome, let alone six.
Now that the market has taken the correct shape - US as favourites, Europe as marginal underdogs - the most fascinating questions and opportunities are around the likely line-ups.
Thomas Bjorn's potential candidates are below - including my team of 12 - while you can read the equivalent US piece here.
Team Europe
Rory McIlroy (1/50)
Unless the rib goes, Rory will be Europe's leader once more. It may be that the timing of the event proves perfect as he works his way back to health with a point to prove, and he certainly has that having lost his singles match to Patrick Reed in 2016.
Jon Rahm (1/33)
Now inside the world's top five and a European Tour member having won Rory's event in Ireland, Rahm is an absolute lock for his Ryder Cup debut. Once upon a time, rookies were rarely expected to shoulder a great burden but that won't be the case with this Spaniard, who Europe may need to thrive on debut. There's no reason he won't do exactly that having wisely paid a visit to Le Golf National earlier this summer.
Justin Rose (1/33)
Ended the 2017 season on a high with some strong performances in the US, where he is now based, and has been a key Ryder Cup player for Europe for a decade now. Partnership with Henrik Stenson took a bit of a hit at Hazeltine but their defeats came to the Spieth/Reed juggernaut. Expect them to go again on a course which suits both.
Sergio Garcia (1/33)
Burdened with an off-colour Martin Kaymer twice at Hazeltine, but performed very well otherwise, including in one of the best singles matches in the event's history as he halved with Phil Mickelson. Also confirmed that he's now ready for the mentor role having brought the best out of Rafa Cabrera Bello there and hard not to be excited about a potential partnership with Rahm, or indeed a reunion with Rafa.
Henrik Stenson (1/33)
Downed Spieth in the Sunday singles at Hazeltine having lost three of his previous four matches. Solid throughout 2017, winning on the PGA Tour for the first time since 2013, and no reason to expect his form to dip significantly enough to put his place on the side in any doubt. Ability to stay out of the rough and perform in the wind could be a huge asset at Le Golf National.
Tommy Fleetwood (1/12)
Enjoyed a phenomenal 2017, winning in Abu Dhabi and at the 2018 Ryder Cup venue in the Open de France. Also contended at the very highest level, finishing second in a WGC and fourth in the US Open, to justify short odds to make his debut in the event. Not quite a certainty but would need fatherhood to have an extremely damaging effect on his game to miss out.
Thomas Pieters (1/8)
Leading points scorer on his debut in the event having earned a wild card with a last-gasp success in Denmark, without which he would not have made the side. Since contended in some top-class events without adding to his tally and lacks the consistency of other high-class youngsters. Still, he's got some solid form around the host course to his name and will be selected unless injured or suffering a complete loss of form.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1/6)
Arguably the most promising player on the European Tour bar Rahm, having won four titles by the age of 23. Criminally underused at Hazeltine, where he had to wait until Saturday for his debut and lost both matches having been put out last in the singles, by which time all hope had gone. Set for a much more prominent role here as he continues to progress and accurate game is ideal for the layout. Only issue is that a lack of consistency could leave him relying on a wild card, but should get it regardless with Bjorn understanding that ability to perform under pressure could be key.
Alex Noren (1/5)
Highlights of a stunning 2016 came too late for a Ryder Cup call, but he now looks ready to make his debut in the competition having shown what he can do all over the world. Added BMW PGA title in 2017 to confirm that the previous year was no flash-in-the-pan and another who knows and is effective at the course. Solid all-round game and unquestionable mental strength will make him an excellent partner.
Paul Casey (1/5)
For many, key to Europe's chances having been in self-imposed exile since the 2008 Ryder Cup. Efforts ongoing to ensure he is available for selection (needs to hold a European Tour card) and no doubt has the right game for the competition, having long been an excellent exponent of match play golf. Issues around performances under pressure remain but his best have so often come when representing Europe. Shot 80-80 when last playing the course but was in dire form and no reason he can't shine if really buying into Team Europe.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2/5)
Hugely impressive on debut, taking 2.5 points from three matches when another to have been underestimated by captain, although had reportedly struggled in practice. Took a while to show the benefits of that confidence-booster but grabbed his chance in the Scottish Open in style earlier this summer, albeit thanks to a gift from the runner-up. Still hasn't fulfilled his potential but consistency makes him a likely candidate to earn a second crack at the competition, although 2/5 is plenty short given depth of talent on offer.
Francesco Molinari (Evs)
Featured in the 2010 and 2012 renewals, latterly securing the half point which completed the so-called Miracle of Medinah thanks to a generous concession from Tiger Woods. Record across those two editions leaves something to be desired but has the ideal game for Le Golf National, a fact he's demonstrated many times before. Given that he's likely to be playing as consistently well as ever come next autumn, Bjorn may find his profile hard to ignore, whether that proves the right call or not.
Key alternatives
There's a very lopsided look to the European market, with 12 players at evens or shorter, but a change in the selection process means it could just be a little more open that the odds suggest.
Bjorn not only has four wild cards to select, but has helped bring about a change which means that from the BMW PGA Championship onwards, points will be worth 50 per cent more. In other words, absolutely anyone on the European Tour could make a very late run into the side as they gobble up ground by playing well in the summer of 2018.
Given his record on the links courses which feature strongly on July and his recent return to form, Tyrrell Hatton is priced as the man most likely to disrupt the 12 players above. However, 5/4 looks extremely short on what we know about the Englishman, whose form in Paris is modest, and there look to be candidates with just as good a chance at considerably bigger prices.
Lucas Bjerregaard is fairly interesting at 10/1, being a compatriot of Bjorn's who secured early points with his breakthrough win in Portugal, while fellow Dane Thorbjorn Olesen has long been earmarked for the side and has finished both second and third at the course - he's an 11/2 chance.
Early points leader Paul Dunne seems sure to play Ryder Cup golf at some stage and is a better bet than Ross Fisher at 5/1, but compatriot Shane Lowry is considerably more interesting at a couple of points shorter. He's looked right back to his best of late and, while a little frustrating, is the sort of tough, classy player with a magic short-game who surely would add strength to this European side.
However, the really interesting one has to be Ian Poulter at 9/2.
Another who thrives at Le Golf National, he's recaptured something like his best form this year and that will not have gone unnoticed. Poulter needs to remember how to perform under pressure and wasn't particularly impressive at Gleneagles when last playing Ryder Cup golf, but Bjorn will not have forgotten his past exploits and nor should he.
With plenty of youth seemingly assured and the likes of Lee Westwood, Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald and Kaymer with work to do, it's easy to envisage a scenario in which Poulter is given one last hurrah in an event which will dominate his legacy. Of this quintet, he's currently playing the best golf and he's too big compared to 11/8 chance Kaymer, who does at least have a win at the course in his favour and could of course make the side, but appears the right sort of price.
Best of the rest
Bernd Wiesberger: Consistent course winner who should have this as his target
Jordan Smith: Rapidly rising star from England; not discounted albeit short enough at 7/2
Danny Willett: Has time to rediscover his game and some signs lately that he will do so
Chris Wood: Did well on debut in 2016 (lost by one hole to DJ); determined to feature again
Alex Levy: Pick of the French contenders should Bjorn want a home player on his side
Ben Coley's team
McIlroy, Rahm, Rose, Garcia, Stenson, Fleetwood, Pieters, Fitzpatrick, Noren, Casey, Cabrera Bello, Poulter
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