Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship golf betting tips

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Scott Piercy at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Patrick Rodgers at 22/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Corey Conners at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Joel Dahmen at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Johnson Wagner at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Please note: Dahmen and Wagner selections initially displayed as 1/5 1-8 - this was a mistake; no bookmaker was quoting eight places for the event, and they will be settled at 1/5 1-6

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

The Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship steps up to PGA Tour level after two successful editions on the second-tier Web.com Tour and the market has the wrong man as favourite, which means Scott Piercy is worth a good each-way bet at 20/1.

Emiliano Grillo remains a bright young talent who may one day join those he competed with in college at the top of the sport, but his effort in contention at the Indian Open two weeks ago was poor. It's over two years since he won his first start as a PGA Tour cardholder in the Frys.com Open and he's failed to make the anticipated progress since. Single-figure quotes offered by some are risible and I don't think he should be ahead of the selection in the betting.

Not that Piercy has been winning events as he likes in the interim - if he had, he wouldn't be here - but the 39-year-old is back to full fitness now and looks a big danger in this grade. Two of Piercy's three PGA Tour triumphs have come in 'opposite' events - those held on the same week as a World Golf Championship or major - and this noted opportunist can bag another in the Dominican Republic.

While Piercy hasn't played this course in competition, he has been third at designer Tom Fazio's Conway Farms while his love for playing by the coast on paspalum greens is demonstrated by strong form in both the OHL Classic in Mexico and the CIMB Classic held in Malaysia.

He calls the Sony Open in Hawaii his favourite event on the schedule and has been runner-up there at a course which, visually at least, shares something in common with this altogether longer layout. So too does El Camaleon, host of the aforementioned OHL Classic, where Piercy finished fourth on his last visit.

With the Web.com events held here won in 20- and 24-under, Piercy's birdie-making ability is a further boost and he's by some way the best in this field for birdie average, both this season and last. His iron play has also been red-hot - again, he's the best in this field with his approach shots - and in 20 rounds this year, only once has he failed to produce good golf.

That blemish came in the opener at Bay Hill, where a disappointing 76 left him with too much to do to make the weekend, but there's no concern there, either. Piercy's record in the Arnold Palmer now reads MC-MC-MC-MC, and last Friday's 71 was his joint-best round at the course; it simply does not play to his strengths, and his appearances there presumably reflect a nod to The King.

If Piercy takes to this layout - and I strongly suspect that he will - and produces the level of golf he displayed in four of his previous five starts this year, he seems likely to go very close. There are dangers, of course, but when Rory Sabbatini, Graeme McDowell and Harris English are among them, it's clear that we're talking about an exceptionally weak event, the like of which Piercy has won twice before.

McDowell was on the radar for all the obvious reasons - his form by the coast, the improvement he's shown over the last month, his handy knack of actually winning golf tournaments - but 25/1 looks about right, although he represents better value than Sabbatini at the prices.

English has struggled off the tee for a long time now and one swallow - the degree of control he showed last week - does not make a summer. Similar comments apply to Chris Wood, whose swing changes are presumably still bedding in, while Paul Dunne has not been playing well and Jim Furyk is no good thing to build on a closing 66 in the Valspar Championship.

That rather rudimentary process of elimination leaves Patrick Rodgers, and he goes alongside Piercy in the staking plan at 22/1.

Rodgers has recovered from illness to produce one of the most consistent spells in his fledgling career, bagging five cheques in succession, two courtesy of top-10 finishes, including a season's-best seventh last week.

Crucially, the big-hitting 25-year-old looks really confident on the greens and if that continues, it's a matter of time before he's contending as he has done several times, including when second to Bryson DeChambeau at the John Deere Classic last summer.

Rodgers knows he belongs in a higher grade to this one and having won in Colombia on the Web.com Tour, bagged two top-15 finishes in Mexico at the aforementioned OHL Classic and contended all the way by the Pacific Ocean at Torrey Pines, everything looks in place for another step up the ladder.

This Stanford graduate wasted no time on the Web.com Tour which means he hasn't played this venue before, but a long par-72 by the coast which offers up scoring opportunities looks perfectly suitable and as the best long-term prospect in this field, he's backed to go close.

Trey Mullinax took full advantage of qualifying for the Valspar Championship on the Monday to bag a top-10 finish in good company, again showcasing the raw power off the tee which makes him such a fascinating player.

A year ago, he led after day one of the Puerto Rico Open just days after his wedding and having been 11th here in 2016, it's perfectly possible that he goes through with his effort this time. Like Piercy, he's among the strongest in this field when it comes to birdie average and his chance is respected.

However, at 33-40/1 Mullinax only serves to highlight that the above selections look good value in this field, even if they're not players we'd ordinarily expect to be interested in at such prices. I'm convinced Rodgers is a better player and by a margin greater than is implied by their respective odds this week.

Corey Conners, on the other hand, may yet emerge as a world-class talent and prices of 40/1 and upwards are well worth taking.

This young Canadian is a former US Amateur finalist and while it was a renewal which threw up all kinds of upsets, those who do go all the way often go on to prove the form worthwhile in the fullness of time.

After turning professional, Conners took the modern route of playing the PGA Tour Latinoamerica, where he gained plenty of experience in tropical conditions and bagged eighth place in a renewal of the Dominican Republic Open among a series of top-10 finishes.

Conners then established himself as arguably the best ball-striker on the Web.com Tour as he graduated to the top level, where he's made every cut bar one so far this season having adapted incredibly quickly to another new challenge.

An ability to grind it out and make the weekend can be massive for an inexperienced player like Conners, and his efforts were finally rewarded with a share of the limelight as he led through 54 holes of the Valspar Championship, teeing off in the final group on Sunday alongside major winner Justin Rose.

Unsurprisingly, he wasn't quite able to cope with Tiger Woods playing in the group ahead and Rose alongside, but that experience will serve him really well and may even help carry him to this title in his first start since.

"It's going to be great," he said, when asked after a disappointing final round how it would help him in the future.

"Gained experience each and everyday and played with the lead really second (round), third and today, and that wasn't the outcome I wanted today but definitely get some things down later tonight and be able to use this experience in the future."

Conners finished down the field here last May but returns a better player and there aren't many in this field who've tasted contention recently, nor are there many of his potential.

At a similar price, Abraham Ancer is worth considering although in terms of latent ability, he looks short enough while those who want to back someone with positive experience of the venue are pointed towards Sam Ryder, who has been second and 12th in two visits and is another who hits it well and will gradually see results if he continues to do so.

Robert Garrigus caught the eye after a bad start at the Valspar but doesn't hold much appeal at the odds, comments which also apply to Stephan Jaeger, who carded a course-record 62 here last year, is proven under low-scoring conditions but should arguably be a shade bigger than the general 80/1.

Instead, I'll turn to Joel Dahmen and Johnson Wagner to complete my staking plan.

Dahmen achieved the remarkable, perhaps unprecedented feat of making the cut at the Honda Classic without carding a single birdie over the first two rounds.

As the week went on, he started to strike the ball with real authority (4th GIR, 12th strokes-gained off-the-tee, 18th strokes-gained approach) and with his short-game also warming up, there's some encouragement that he could build on 11th place here in 2016.

Last weekend, Dahmen won a minor tour event with 16-under-par through 54 holes and while that's form of a level way below this one, it does demonstrate that whatever clicked for him in the Honda Classic appears to have stuck.

Wagner meanwhile has proven capable of taking an opportunity like this one in the past, such as when losing a play-off for the Shell Houston Open when playing on an invite a couple of years ago.

He has victories in two of the events mentioned at the top of this preview - the OHL Classic and the Sony Open - and his best form this season came when producing a bogey-free weekend by the sea in the RSM Classic, while last time out he was ninth for greens hit when showing a little more at Pebble Beach, another coastal event.

Wagner, who turns 38 on Friday, is playing on conditional status this year and needs to take advantage of chances like this one. As a three-time PGA Tour winner who has always flown under the radar, I'm willing to speculate that he can do so.

Finally, a word for Andres Romero. He won a European Tour event - and a strong one at that - when playing on an invite last summer, and always used to be a threat if teeing it up in neighbouring Puerto Rico, which this event effectively replaces.

Romero ranges from 66/1 with one firm to 175/1 with another, emphasising how tricky he is to weigh up - especially given how difficult it's proven to source scores for the charity pro am held in Puerto Rico at the start of the month, in which he was due to appear.

Posted at 1400 GMT on 20/03/18

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