Mark Hughes: Stoke boss
Mark Hughes: Stoke boss

What Happens Next: Ante-post Premier League betting


Following the close of the Premier League season, this week’s ante-post column focuses on the early markets for the 2017/18 competition which gets under way in less than three months’ time.

Here's Andy Schooler's verdict.

Title


The vast majority of firms have Manchester City as favourites to win next season’s Premier League – with another summer of spending seemingly ahead, the Abu Dhabi-backed club are no bigger than 13/5.

Still, problems remain at the back where serious surgery looks to be required but from what has been seen they are problems Pep Guardiola is reluctant to address.

Defending champions Chelsea are only third favourites with some layers, including Sky Bet. They will not have the advantage of no European football next season – indeed this looks likely to be the first title race for three years where such an advantage is not a factor – but 100/30 about a team which has been clearly the best in two of the last three campaigns is tempting, particularly when you consider they have the financial clout to compete in the transfer market this summer.

The same can be said about Manchester United but for me they should be bigger than 7/2 at this stage. Last summer’s ante-post gamble never featured in this season’s race and having a 24-point deficit to make up on Chelsea next term looks a big task no matter how much they spend again over the coming months.

The bet right now which should be considered – with the intention to lay it back at some point - is Arsenal at 14/1.

That’s the biggest price they’ve ever been pre-season under Arsene Wenger but one I can certainly see shortening.

It appears likely that Wenger will remain in charge at the Emirates next season which will disappoint some but such are the rumblings in North London that surely something has to change this summer. A squad clear-out is mooted given the contract situations of numerous players, while how long can Wenger – and for that matter Stan Kroenke – keep deflecting criticism without trying something a bit more radical?

Given all the negativity which has engulfed the club in recent times, it should be remembered that they were top of the league in December, while they were on course for a top-four finish with 45 minutes of the season remaining. That’s not the disaster some have painted.

Some encouraging summer business and any kind of decent start to the season would see those odds slashed in half by my reckoning so back-to-lay punters should take note.

Top four


As we saw this season, six into four won’t go and the early 2017/18 prices suggest it will be Arsenal and Liverpool who are left disappointed in 12 months’ time.

It should be competitive though – bet365 have none of the six bigger than even money.

With that in mind, should Manchester United really be 5/2 (Sky Bet) to miss out on the top four again?

As referenced above, there was a gulf of 24 points between United and champions Chelsea this term. Granted United could consider themselves a tad unlucky in several home games which they dominated this season but turning even five of those into wins still only gives them 10 more points.

Goalscorers will surely be targeted by Jose Mourinho in the off-season. Zlatan Ibrahimovic was their leading scorer by some distance (he got 17 in the league, Juan Mata was next best with six) and he definitely won’t start in August and possibly will never play for the club again.

Yes, United have the clout to sign high-class replacements with Antoine Griezmann among those heavily linked with a move to Old Trafford. Yet will he want to move if United aren’t in the Champions League?

Much will rest on Wednesday’s Europa League final and if the result does not go United’s way don’t expect the 5/2 to be around much longer.

The other potential bet in the top-four markets is even money about Spurs missing out.

Tottenham claimed a remarkable 53 of a possible 57 points at home this season but White Hart Lane is no more and their record at Wembley, which will be their temporary home, leaves much to be desired.

They’ve won one and drawn one of their last eight games there, the win coming in a dead Champions League game, the draw part of an aggregate Europa League defeat.

Their away form is what cost them this season’s title – they had only the fifth-best record in the division despite their final-week flurry at Leicester and Hull – so even if you write off that Wembley stat you see the potential for their home form to dip.

Throw the potential for some of Europe’s biggest vultures to come hovering in the summer, such has been the form of the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli, and evens is worthy of consideration.

Relegation


It’s often the case that teams who finish the season poorly are backed for the drop in the close season and the two survivors who ended the worst in 2016/17 were undoubtedly Stoke and West Brom.

The Potters finished with just two wins in their last 11, while the Baggies were winless in nine over the closing couple of months.

Of the two, it is Stoke who appeal the most at 10/1 (32Red) for the drop.

Mark Hughes’ popularity is on the wane at the bet365 Stadium with his attempts to play a more attractive style only succeeding in taking them back down the table (to 13th) this season.

Marko Arnautovic and Xherdan Shaqiri remain wonderful players on their day but neither produces the goods on a regular basis.

Defensively this was their worst season since winning promotion back to the top flight – they let in 56.

Another key difference to some of their more successful campaigns was an ability to take anything off the top sides.

Their ground was also regarded as something of a fortress with wins against the big boys occurring fairly often during the reign of Tony Pulis. This season they took one point from their home games against the Big Six with no wins at all against the sides who finished above them.

That record was reflected away from home too. Indeed, they won just one game against any of the 12 teams who finished ahead of them – against Southampton on the final day.

Essentially they were only spared a real relegation battle thanks to their ability to beat the sides who finished below them (they beat every team in that category at home) and that suggests not a lot will have to go wrong for them to be in the dogfight next term.

Pressure is gradually building on Hughes, who could be a bit of value when the ‘sack race’ prices go up but, for now, 10/1 about Stoke going down looks like a bit of value.

Top-half finish


The competitiveness of the Premier League is often hailed as one of its biggest selling points.

In one-off matches that may still ring true but in terms of season-long consistency there’s an ever-increasing gap between the elite and the also-rans.

This season seventh-placed Everton finished a whopping 15 points clear of Southampton in eighth, this despite losing three of their last four.

The gap from eighth to 17th, however, was just six points.

With half the teams in the league having collected between 40 and 46 points, there has to be be some value in the top-half finish market – there’s literally only a couple of results between those who finished eighth and 17th.

One to consider at the current prices is Swansea at 4/1.

The Swans’ Premier League finishes (most recent first) now read 15-12-8-12-9-11 and the way that Paul Clement came in and changed the clubs’ fortunes after awful runs under both Francesco Guidolin and Bob Bradley must give them plenty of optimism for 2017/18.

After Clement’s appointment in January, Swansea picked up 29 points from 19 games – form that is very much top-half if applied over the course of a season.

Admittedly that’s a pretty big if, but you only needed 45 points for a top-half finish this term (Swansea finished with 41) and Clement certainly looks to have something about him.

OK, the club does face a big summer – they will desperately want to hold on to Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente, for example. Yet Clement is sure to want to make his own signings too and with the Welsh club having flown a bit too close to danger during the course of the season, their American owners will surely look to back him.

It won’t be for everyone, but 4/1 certainly has the potential to look big further down the line.

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