West Ham v Chelsea tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Saturday's early kick-off in the Premier League sees West Ham take on Chelsea and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Marcos Alonso to win 3+ tackles at 18/5 (William Hill)
0.5pts Marcos Alonso to win 5+ tackles at 20/1 (William Hill)
Chelsea remain top of the Premier League table after a 2-1 win away at Watford in midweek while a spectacular Neal Maupay overhead kick denied West Ham all three points as they were held by Brighton.
Thomas Tuchel's Blues were pretty underwhelming in their last performance but they had been consistently posting strong attacking showings in the week prior - 2.85 xG at home to Manchester United, 3.10 when hosting Juventus, 2.44 at Leicester and 3.22 at the Bridge against Burnley.
They're boosted by players returning to fitness and one of those is Romelu Lukaku - who is likely to start here. Chelsea are the best away team in the division but the Hammers have proven to be a tough side to beat - there feels too much risk in taking that 8/11 short price on an away win.
The season statistics do open up some value in the stats market though. Tackles have proven a profitable route in the past - particularly in the 12:30 Saturday fixture - and this game looks like one that could be the same.
An interesting fact about West Ham is that no side sees more shots come from their right side (22%) in the Premier League. The preference to attack down that side is significant too - only 12% of their shots come from the left flank.
It's not a surprise when Jarrod Bowen attempts more dribbles among the West Ham wide men. He is always on that right side when playing on the wings.
With this in mind, we're taking the 18/5 best price on MARCOS ALONSO TO HAVE 3+ TACKLES in this game. He achieved that in the win at Watford on Wednesday.
While Ben Chilwell is the preferred left-back, his injury has brought Alonso into the starting XI and he's had three or more tackles on three separate occasions so far. He also had five in the Carabao Cup win over Southampton at the end of October.
He tends to be a high tackle player anyway - he's seen an average of 1.5 or more per game in four of his last five Premier League seasons with Chelsea - but the opposition helps and he should be in for a busy afternoon.
We're also playing the 20/1 for ALONSO TO HAVE 5+ TACKLES. This is something that has been achieved in recent West Ham games.
Two of their last four games in all competitions have seen the opposition LB/LWB register at least five tackles. Alonso achieved this in the game against Liverpool where he came up against Mohamed Salah - another side who like to attack down that right side.
The potential for this game to go either way is there and that means there just isn't enough confidence to back Chelsea at well below even money in this one. Instead, the value comes in taking ALONSO to complete a decent amount of tackles.
West Ham v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Marcos Alonso to win 3+ tackles at 18/5 (William Hill)
- 0.5pts Marcos Alonso to win 5+ tackles at 20/1 (William Hill)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (02/12/21)
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