Sky Bet EFL: State of play

Sky Bet Championship

Who’s up?

Brighton and Newcastle. The Seagulls will make their Premier League debut after a brilliant campaign under Chris Hughton and a win at home to Bristol City will be enough to secure the title on Saturday evening. His former club, Newcastle, confirmed their return to the top-flight at the first time of asking with a 4-1 victory over Preston on Monday. They travel to Cardiff on Friday night and defeat would see Brighton confirmed as champions before they kick-off a day later. Newcastle do boast a superior goal difference, but Brighton remain firmly in pole position.

Who’s going to join them?

Any one of five sides: Reading, Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, Fulham and Leeds.

The latter have made life difficult for themselves with just one point from three games, but they are at home this weekend before a trip to struggling Wigan on the final day. Fulham also feature at home, but they visit Wednesday on the final day of the season – which gives Leeds hope of making up ground, even if they are three points off a play-off spot and with an inferior goal difference to the Cottagers. 

Wednesday travel to Ipswich on Saturday before hosting Fulham, while Huddersfield are at Birmingham before playing host to Cardiff on the final day, a run-in which looks to hand them an advantage although their place in the play-offs is secure - it's a matter of where they finish.

Fourth-placed Reading are all but guaranteed a play-off spot and will seal it if they can get a result against Wigan on Saturday.

Who’s going down?

So far, only Rotherham, who have won just five of their 44 games so far, have a goal difference of -58 and just 21 points, putting them 20 adrift of 23rd-placed Wigan, who will be relegated unless they win their final two games and Birmingham lose theirs, while also suffering a minimum six-goal swing.

It seems certain that Wigan, who face two play-off contenders, will be playing in League One next year which leaves six sides still in some sort of danger: Blackburn, Birmingham, Nottingham Forest, QPR, Burton, and Bristol City. 

Forest gained a vital 3-2 victory over Reading last weekend and a draw would suit both them and QPR when they face off at Loftus Road this weekend.

Bristol City are 17th and almost certainly safe, albeit not mathematically, while 18th-placed Burton have found form at just the right time and are favourites to win at Barnsley on Saturday.

In reality, then, it looks like either Blackburn or Birmingham, both of whom have won top-level silverware in the last couple of decades. Blackburn are unbeaten in three but are struggling for goals ahead of the visit of Aston Villa on Saturday. Mid-table Villa have little to play for but that didn’t stop them beating Birmingham last time.

Blues are in dire form – their last win came in February – but hold a two-point advantage plus a potentially decisive edge in terms of goal difference. One point could be enough, although they host an incentivised Huddersfield before visiting Bristol, who are on a four-match winning run at home.

Who to watch...

Fulham are the highest scorers in the division and, while not certain of a play-off place, their firepower makes them a threat to all if they do secure one.

If Blackburn are to survive, they need goals and Sam Gallagher looks the most likely source. He’s scored 12 in all this season and 10 of them came at Ewood Park, so watch for him causing trouble against Villa on Saturday.

But perhaps the most important man in the battle to avoid the drop is Harry Redknapp. Birmingham acted swiftly to appoint him following Gianfranco Zola's departure and there were some positives to be taken from Sunday’s 1-0 defeat at rivals Villa.

He has two games to get the Blues out of a hole, with four points almost guaranteeing their status in the division next year.

Sky Bet League One

Who’s up?

Sheffield United. The South Yorkshire club have run away with the league and lie 14 points ahead of nearest rivals Bolton. With 89 goals and only six defeats in 45 games, Chris Wilder has transformed a team which finished 11th under Nigel Adkins into champions.

They will return to the Sky Bet Championship following a six-year absence.

Who’s going to join them? 

The race for promotion is still wide open with seven teams still in the fight: Bolton, Fleetwood, Scunthorpe, Bradford, Millwall, Southend and Rochdale. 

Bolton lie second and a draw in their final game against Peterborough would be enough to secure automatic promotion due to their superior goal difference. However, a slip-up could see Fleetwood pip them to the post - they will expect to beat relegation-threatened Port Vale.

Both Scunthorpe and Bradford have safely secured their play-off places, but Millwall, who occupy the final spot, have left it until the last day of the season to secure their chance in the four-team showdown.

They need a win against Bristol Rovers, who have nothing to play for, but defeat for the Lions could see either Southend or Rochdale sneak into contention, although the latter rely on defeats for both Millward and Southend.

Who’s going down?

There are three sides already down: Chesterfield, Coventry and Swindon. 

Chesterfield have had a miserable season and have the second-worst defence in the league, Coventry have poured more misery onto their fans despite their Checkatrade Trophy distraction and Swindon’s Tim Sherwood experiment fell flat.

Port Vale are looking most likely to follow those three and need to win at Fleetwood and hope for a Gillingham or Bury slip. Although Bury are longshots to be relegated, facing promotion-chasing Southend is not an ideal game in this situation.

Therefore, its Gillingham who could slip down.

Who to watch...

Scunthorpe have relegated Chesterfield and Swindon in the same week and out of the play-off contenders are the in-form team. Expect them to finish the season strongly with a solid win against League Two-bound Coventry.

If Millwall are to secure the final play-off place they may need 13-goal man Aiden O’Brien to fire them across the line, following back-to-back defeats. 

Port Vale’s most important man is surely caretaker boss Michael Brown. Does he have the answer to the club’s woes? It will be a hard task, but the potential rewards are great.

Sky Bet League Two

Who’s up?

Doncaster, Plymouth and Portsmouth. Doncaster have bounced back to League One at the first time of asking with the best attack in the division, which has bagged an impressive 86 goals.

Plymouth have waited six years to get back to this level and Portsmouth fans can start dreaming of the heights they were at before their financial troubles having finally pieced things together.

These three might have earned promotion already - but there is still the small matter of where the title will go.

Doncaster have been in awful form even though they sit top of the table, and games against promotion-chasing Exeter and relegation-threatened Hartlepool won’t make life any easier.

Plymouth have fared better with only two defeats in seven and their final two games come against teams who have nothing to play for, which puts them in a strong position.

Nevertheless, Portsmouth are the in-form side with only one defeat and one goal conceded in seven games, although games against play-off chasing Mansfield and Cheltenham, who are fighting for survival, means their run-in is by no means straightforward.

Who’s going to join them?

 

Any one of 11 sides could yet be promoted via the play-offs: Luton, Exeter, Blackpool, Stevenage, Mansfield, Wycombe, Carlisle, Cambridge, Colchester, Accrington, and Grimsby. 

Luton are the only team of the 11 guaranteed a play-off place and have only two defeats in six games, although they have a tough fixture against Accrington who still have an outside chance of a play-off place, before a more favourable fixture against Morecambe.

A win for Exeter would all but secure a play-off place for the club, but games against title-chasing Doncaster and play-off hopefuls Carlisle make this task tough.

Blackpool look to be in a great position to bag their play-off place with games against Notts County and already-relegated and troubled outfit Leyton Orient. 

For Stevenage, their final two games start with Yeovil - who are now all but safe - and end with Accrington, who as mentioned still have an outside chance of a play-off place.

Still with us? Good.

Mansfield have to host Portsmouth, but an away game against Crawley looks more favourable and two wins could well see them enter the play-offs with valuable momentum.

Beating Doncaster will have been a big confidence booster for Wycombe, but their final two games are not easy. Morecambe will put up a fight and Cambridge still have an outside chance of a play-off place.

Carlisle, another team sitting on 65 points, face Newport, who are involved in a relegation scrap, and then Exeter in the toughest of the two games as they are fighting for a play-off place themselves. 

Although Crawley may look to be favourable for Cambridge their final game of the season against Wycombe makes their run-in anything but simple. 

Colchester have one of the more encouraging conclusions, against already-relegated Orient and a Yeovil side who could by then be safe.

There is a reason that Accrington are outsiders to gain a play-off place and that is because they face two of their rivals chasing the same goal in Luton and Stevenage. It would take all cards falling in place for them to sneak in.

Finally, Grimsby are the ultimate underdogs because not only do they have to beat both Barnet and Plymouth, they have to rely on many other results going their way. 

Who’s down?

Leyton Orient, a team in a total financial mess, are already out of the Sky Bet EFL and it is no wonder with on one win in 13 games - that single victory came against second-from-bottom side Hartlepool. 

Hartlepool look likely to follow the London club down to the Conference as they face two tough games against their relegation rivals Cheltenham and top-of-the league Doncaster. 

Although Newport are not safe they have been in great form with four wins from their last six games and even though Carlisle are difficult opponents, their final fixture against Notts County is a winnable game. 

If Cheltenham beat Hartlepool in their next game they will be safe, but a defeat would leave them needing a result against title-chasing Portsmouth.

With a better goal difference, it is unlikely Yeovil will be relegated, but games against play-off chasing duo Stevenage and Colchester could cause complications should the teams below them get the results they need. 

Who to watch...

It may be unlikely, but Portsmouth could nick the title from under the noses of Doncaster and Plymouth because of their superior form.

If Doncaster want to finally take the title they arguably deserve, they will need 26 goal man John Marquis to step up and fire them home. 

Alex Armstrong and Kevin Cooper are the joint-caretaker managers that everyone will be watching. Can they save Hartlepool from dropping out the Football League?