Serie A tips: Weekend best bets and previews
James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out three best bets for the weekend.
Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro Card in Empoli v Cremonese at 21/10 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt Lazio Double Chance v Juventus at 22/25 (Unibet)
0.5pts Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro sent off in Empoli v Cremonese at 33/1 (bet365)
Juventus v Lazio
- BT Sport: Sunday, 19:45
- Juventus 19/20 | Draw 12/5 | Lazio 29/10
Juventus welcome Lazio on Sunday evening in Serie A’s final bit of action before the World Cup.
Both sides come into this clash following derby day successes last weekend.
Hosts Juventus got the better of Inter in the Derby d’Italia, winning 2-0.
The goals came courtesy of Adrien Robiot and Nicolo Fagioli in the second half, though the Old Lady owe the victory to the resolute defending of Bremer and Danilo in the heart of their defence.
The pair combined to make two blocks and a staggering 13 clearances, to put that into perspective, the rest of the players on the pitch combined to make 14 clearances.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side built on this victory in midweek, edging past Verona despite the late dismissal of Alex Sandro, momentum continuing to gather as they surged up the table.
You cannot underestimate the magnitude of Le Aquile’s Derby di Roma success last weekend with pressure mounting for Maurizio Sarri.
Defeat to Salernitana was quickly followed with another at the hands of Feyenoord in their final Europa League group game, relegating them to the Conference.
After Roma’s success in the competition last season, Lazio’s sporting director, Igli Tara, dubbed it “the losers cup.”
Unsurprisingly, Jose Mourinho had something to say on the matter, adding an extra layer of tension ahead of last Sunday’s showdown at the Stadio Olimpico.
A goal on the stroke of the half hour mark from Felipe Anderson ultimately proved to be the difference.
The game, devoid of much quality, descended into a battle of nerves in its final phase which proved to be too much for Lazio skipper Danilo Cataldi who burst into tears upon the final whistle.
The emotion of Cataldi depicts the monumental effort the victory was, moving forward that can either galvanise the squad or leave them short ahead of their trip to Turin.
With the World Cup induced break just days away, I expect it to be the latter which is why siding with the away side appeals here, backing Lazio DOUBLE CHANCE is the play.
Score prediction: Juventus 0-1 Lazio (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (11/11/22)
Empoli v Cremonese
- BT Sport: Friday, 19:45
- Empoli 29/20 | Draw 12/5 | Cremonese 9/5
After making numerous appearances via the bench, JEAN-DANIEL AKPA AKPRO could be set to make his first start for Empoli on Friday evening.
The Lazio-loanee has only played a combined total of 135 minutes for Azzurri in a season ravaged by suspension and injury.
Despite limited game time, the Ivorian racked up three yellow cards this campaign, averaging 4.7 tackles and four fouls per 90 which is why backing him TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals here.
In hindsight, we should have seen the two yellow cards and subsequent red card he received against Roma coming as he faced his parents club's bitter, local foe, the Derby della Capitale rivalry between Lazio and La Giallorossi.
Even with the context, the efficiency in which the midfielder received his marching orders was impressive.
In the 63’ minute Akpa Akpro entered the fold. After committing a foul, he was booked just two minutes later. Then in the 87’ minute, he committed his second foul, originally deemed a bookable offence, then upgraded to a straight red card, lasting just 24 minutes in total.
Suspension and an injury then kept him out of the fold for five games and he has kept himself out of trouble since returning.
However, I do not expect this to last as the midfielder boasts an incredible cards per 90 average of 0.78 in three seasons in the Serie A, accumulating 13 cards despite the fact he has only started 10 (yes TEN) games.
Cards should be rife at the Carlo Castellani as well with Federico Dionisi taking charge.
The Italian brandished ten cards in his only Serie A game to date this season, so, could easily see Akpa Akpro getting an early bath which is why his price to be SENT OFF appeals.
Score prediction: Empoli 1-1 Cremonese (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (11/11/22)
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