We've got a big 10/1 value bet from Graham Ruthven for Wednesday's Brescia v Inter Milan game in Serie A.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Inter v Brescia
Wednesday, July 1 18:30
Antonio Conte’s side were on course for a defeat that would have all but ended their slim hopes of winning the Scudetto, but the match completely changed in the space of just three minutes as Inter fought back from 1-0 down against Parma to claim a 2-1 victory that at least keeps them in the title race that little bit longer.
Inter remain eight points off the pace, meaning they will require favours elsewhere to catch both Juventus and Lazio, but they are still an exceptionally difficult side to beat, as proven by the resolve they showed on Sunday.
This makes the 10/1 price on Inter to win from behind on Wednesday night interesting. It’s something they have done five times over the season. They've also had no clean sheets in their last six in Serie A.
Brescia come into this game with their Serie A status hanging by a thread. They are cut adrift in second last position and with only 10.5 shots on goal per game (the lowest average in Serie A this season) are one of the most toothless sides in the division. They also average the lowest share of possession per match in the league at 42.5%.
Saying that, Brescia have scored in five of their last seven away games - and crucially they've scored the first goal in five of their last seven outings overall and yet won none of them. That makes this one an outsider worth considering.
Best bet: Inter to win from behind at 10/1
Torino v Lazio
Tuesday, June 30 18:30
Simone Inzaghi’s side come into this game knowing that a win will put real pressure on Juventus at the top of Serie A. Lazio have been one of the success stories of the Italian season so far and there’s still a chance that they could finish it as champions. One more slip, like they one they suffered away to Atalanta last week, would surely end those hopes, though. This is a must win match.
Over 3.5 goals at 7/4 looks to be a good price given that five goals have been scored in each of Lazio’s last two away games. Indeed, this isn’t just a team that scores goals themselves, with Luis Alberto and Ciro Immobile enjoying the season of their lives, but a side that also concedes goals, keeping just one clean sheet in their last six outings.
Both teams to score at 4/6 doesn’t represent much value, but could be nailed on.
Torino have arrested the free-fall they were suffering before the coronavirus shutdown, winning one, drawing one and losing one of their first three games back, but they now enter a stretch that will see them face Lazio, Juventus and Inter all within a week.
Andrea Belotti continued his good scoring form for the season at the weekend, but Torino’s 4-2 defeat to Cagliari underlined just how fragile they are at this moment. The Italian international is 11/1 to score two or more, which certainly isn’t out of the question given that Lazio are a side who simply tries to outscore opponents.
Best bet: Over 3.5 Goals in Torino v Lazio at 7/4
Genoa v Juventus
Tuesday, June 30 20:45
Juventus edged closer to a ninth successive Scudetto with a 4-0 home win over Lecce at the weekend. This was on the back of a 2-0 away win over Bologna. In fact, Maurizio Sarri’s side have yet to concede a single goal in the four games they have played since the return of the Italian season, only losing the Coppa Italia final to Napoli on penalties.
This recent track record suggests there is some value in the 11/8 price for Juventus to win to nil on Tuesday evening. Genoa are a team that know how to find the back of the net, scoring in each of their last seven games, but Sarri’s side average 57.1% of possession in every Serie A game they play - the second highest possession share of any side in the division. They will control this contest.
Cristiano Ronaldo comes into this match in solid goalscoring form, finding the net in each of his last two games, but there is perhaps slightly better value in Paulo Dybala’s anytime price of 7/5.
The Argentine has flourished this season and has scored in both Serie A games he has played since the resumption. Dybala has formed a genuine partnership with Ronaldo and there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue his streak against Genoa.
Best bet: Juventus to win to nil at 11/8
All odds correct as of 11:33am on 29/6/20
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