Premier League tips: Weekend preview


David John's betting preview for this weekend's Premier League action.

Recommended bets: Sunday Premier League


1pt Middlesbrough to beat Swansea at 7/2 - upbeat new outlook in their bid to survive and can start with a surprise win

1pt Danny Welbeck to score anytime at 13/5 - fresh after an injury-hit season and looks a major threat for the hosts

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Swansea v Middlesbrough (1330BST)


It is a big few days ahead for second-bottom Middlesbrough if they want to keep spirits up in their bid to remain in the Premier League and they head to south Wales at a backable price for an ideal start.

The dour Aitor Karanka has dug them into a deep hole but those upstairs decided enough was enough and the effervescent Steve Agnew and a new coaching staff, including Jonathan Woodgate, have been tasked with saving the day.

It is a free roll of the dice for Agnew as Karanka will get the blame if they end up back in the Sky Bet Championship and the early signs were promising enough despite a 3-1 defeat at home to Manchester United. 

The way Boro rallied in a bid to find an equaliser in the closing stages when 2-1 behind suggested this was a team that had not given up the fight despite having only won three early-round FA Cup matches since the turn of the year.

“The players are in good spirts,” Agnew revealed this week. “Their enthusiasm is top drawer and they are working as hard as they can.”

I fancy that rekindled positive approach will be converted into three points from what looks on paper a hard task at the Liberty Stadium.

Swansea made their move earlier to ship out a hapless Bob Bradley and the likeable Paul Clement’s more methodic, organised approach has yielded four wins from 10 and lifted them out of danger for the time being.

Back-to-back defeats though at Hull and Bournemouth – the latter was a surprisingly drab effort – has sucked them back toward the drop zone and a return home can’t come quickly enough having won three on the trot in front of their own fans.

I agree with Clement’s statement his side will be very well prepared and the return of Martin Olsson and Kyle Naughton on the flanks is a timely boost as the service they have delivered into the opposition box has been excellent so England call-up Ben Gibson and Bernardo Espinosa will have to be at the peak of their defensive powers.

The clock is not quite ready to chime midnight on Boro’s top-flight status but the time has arrived for Agnew and his staff to take a bolder approach away from home and that means getting striker Rudy Gestede involved from the start alongside Alvaro Negredo.

They need to start scoring some goals and I would play Adama Traore as well for good measure in a bid to win the game rather than go with the Karanka policy of trying to drag a classier side like Swansea down to their level in a bid to scratch out a point.

Hull and Burnley loom large on the horizon but that pair are for another day so I am going to take a punt on Boro’s renewed optimism counting for plenty in what would be a surprise outcome.

Prediction: Swansea 0-1 Middlesbrough

Arsenal v Manchester City (1600)


It is hard to know what to expect next from the embattled Arsene Wenger and his Gunners in a Premier League season that is a whisker away from implosion.

They could be out of the top six come kick-off if Everton win the Merseyside derby as Wenger’s ongoing will he/won’t he cat and mouse with the press over his future at the Emirates has without question had a detrimental effect on productivity since the end of January.

They have lost six of their last nine games (four from five in the top flight) with players looking utterly disinterested and disenfranchised when we saw them in a feeble performance at West Brom a fortnight ago. 

The buck stops with the venerable Frenchman though who has created this mess by dithering over his future plans but can still rescue the situation to some extent with time on the clock and some potential silverware in the form of another FA Cup triumph.

The international break is perhaps a chance to start afresh with 11 games to play and the switch to a new month could also help judged on recent history – Arsenal have suffered just one defeat in their last 20 games staged in April. 

‘Ifs’ and ‘buts’ have seen many a punter left with an empty wallet but if Danny Welbeck’s second-half header at The Hawthorns had been a couple of inches lower then the recovery may have already started and embarking on the final push for a top-four spot against Pep Guardiola could be tackled with a bit more relish.

Wenger’s woes have been a bit of a blessing as technically it should be the Spaniard on the wrong end of all the negative press after a bang average first season in charge at the Etihad Stadium.

I have little doubt he would have felt he could jet into England and win the Premier League immediately but a rubbish goalkeeper, rubbish defence and rubbish exit from the Champions League has brought him down a peg or two – he can expect both barrels from the media if he fails to make things significantly better next season.

City have been huge fun to watch and unplayable at times when they swarm forward with pace and precision but the fundamentals are ultimately flawed thanks to the regular Keystone Cop activity amongst the back four. 

One or two pieces of interesting team news make this fixture even more of an enigma – Petr Cech is out so the erratic David Ospina comes in while Alexis Sanchez and Kevin De Bruyne are not guaranteed to start with slight question marks following their exertions for Chile and Belgium. 

Whether that pair are involved or not, this game revolves around attacking intent so you would expect to see both teams to score and over 2.5 goals priced out of the market with odds-on quotes. 

Yet, despite all of the earlier ranting, I have an inkling the hosts might just pull something out of the hat at 11/4 to answer the critics but I marginally prefer going down the anytime goalscorer route instead with an interest on Welbeck.

It has been another rotten season for the England striker due to injury but he scored at Liverpool, got through all 90 minutes against West Brom and could be a key cog in the wheel to provide some fresh impetus over the closing weeks. 

He is a quality finisher when on song and his sharpness in and about defences is exactly what keeps Pep and his coaching staff up at night.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City

Last updated at 1548 on 31/03/17.

Recommended bets: Saturday Premier League


1pt Everton to beat Liverpool at 9/2 - time has arrived to halt a dreadful record at Anfield and home side still far from convincing at the prices

2pts Stoke/Draw Double Chance v Leicester at 5/6 - pushed Chelsea all the way last time and can halt Leicester's winning spell

1pt West Brom to beat Manchester United at 11/1 - functional Baggies full of confidence and worth a punt to topple depleted hosts

1pt Bournemouth to score first v Southampton at 2/1 - derby spoils on the line and in-form Cherries fancied to be quick out of the blocks

Click here for our transparent tipping record  

Liverpool v Everton (1230BST)


The curse of international week has left both sides shorn of major talent ahead of another rambunctious Merseyside tussle - Adam Lallana is ruled out for the hosts while Everton are without Seamus Coleman, Ramiro Funes Mori and James McCarthy.   

The loss of Coleman is without question the most devastating with the wing-back now sidelined for months with a broken leg but his absence could play a key role anyway as the Toffees attempt to halt a dreadful winless run at Anfield that stretches back to 1999.

“We will be thinking about Seamus,” said Phil Jagielka. “Hopefully we will get to speak to him before the game. There is no incentive needed but it might add a bit of a motivational edge for us.”

An edge – however it comes - is needed if they are finally going to get over the psychological barrier of winning a game across Stanley Park. 

The approaches taken by David Moyes (park the bus) and Roberto Martinez (more expansive but shambolic at the back) did not work so it is now down to Ronald Koeman as he attempts to crack the code.

His side might have wobbled a little in November and December but they have been in thumping good form on the whole so far in 2017 and has them right in the argument for a finish inside the top six. 

The outstanding Romelu Lukaku may be playing a bit of bluff and counter-bluff when it comes to his future but his performances on the pitch have been right out of the top drawer and show no sign of slowing with 10 goals in his last seven games.

Other standouts have been a refreshed and resurgent Ross Barkley, teenage whizz Tom Davies and the tireless Idrissa Gueye and Koeman has fashioned a strong, resilient but entertaining team which at long last is in position to stop being shoved around by the neighbours.

The betting market intrigues me and I can’t quite fathom out why the layers make them 9/2 for a game they are fully justified in believing they can win. 

Three home victories on the trot for Jurgen Klopp might have calmed the natives a little but we are not that far removed from them losing three on the bounce at Anfield while an insipid effort at Leicester still generates the impression they are pretty flaky and far from the finished article. 

Klopp’s summer looks like it will be spent having a complete clearout as he starts the rebuild but he will have his fingers crossed the current crop have enough about them to secure a top-four berth at least as we head into the closing stages of the campaign.

Lallana’s absence is huge so the German will need a rethink in terms of how he deploys his midfield personnel as Philippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino both come under scrutiny (despite a private jet flight home) after a draining trip to South America to play for Brazil. 

This looks increasingly like the acid test for Everton in terms of how far they have progressed this season bearing in mind as well they have relied such a lot on excellent home form compared to a measly four away successes.

The price between the pair though does not reflect how close this could turn out and the visitors are well worth a small investment to upset the applecart and nab all three points.   

Prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Everton

Opta facts:

o Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 12 league encounters with Everton (W5 D7 L0). Only once before have they gone on a longer undefeated run against their neighbours (13 games between 1972 and 1978).

o Everton’s last Premier League win at Anfield was in September 1999 (W0 D8 L8 since) and they have lost two of their last three away games there by a 0-4 scoreline.

o This fixture has seen 21 red cards shown, more than any other Premier League fixture. Ramiro Funes Mori was sent off at Anfield last season for Everton.

o Jurgen Klopp could become the first Liverpool manager to win his first three league Merseyside derbies against Everton.

o Romelu Lukaku has scored five times against Liverpool in the Premier League, but only one of those goals has come at Anfield (February 2013 for West Brom).

o Romelu Lukaku (21 goals) is the first Everton player to score 20+ goals in a single Premier League season. In comparison, Liverpool have seen a player score 20+ goals in a PL season on six occasions.

o The Belgian striker has scored 11 goals and assisted three more in 10 Premier League appearances for Everton in 2017 so far.

o Romelu Lukaku has scored 10 goals in the 80th minute or later in Premier League games this season - this is a Premier League record in a single campaign alongside Kevin Phillips in 1999-00 (10).

o Ross Barkley has created more goalscoring chances than any other English player in the Premier League this season (67) and this tally is already more than he’s posted in any single league campaign.

Burnley v Tottenham (1500)


It is seven weeks since Burnley had a home game – not a good statistic for a team that can’t win on the road ����������������� but the admirable Sean Dyche and his players emerged from a four-game slog up and down the country with a so-so two points that has them in 13th place and eight points clear of the drop zone.

Dyche admits they are “in good shape” and has even dared to look up the table rather than over his shoulder with a solid finish to proceedings perhaps even securing a place inside the top 10.

Some additional away points will be required over the closing stretch if that goal is to be realised while this is going to be a stern examination for them back at Turf Moor from a team keen on cementing second place behind runaway leaders Chelsea.

Burnley’s last home league fixture was against the latter as they battled manfully to claim a point and Dyche will need all the usual meticulous homework and planning in place against a patently obvious higher-quality outfit even without the services of an injured Harry Kane. 

That is good news for centre back lynchpin Michael Keane, who did so well for England, but the slight concern is that seven matches without a victory may start to gnaw away on the near invincibility they feel in east Lancashire where they have taken 29 of their 32 points.  

Spurs have been priced up at no bigger than 4/6 but rather like their hosts, they are more vulnerable away from White Hart Lane when push comes to shove. 

They have managed only four wins on their travels in the top flight but all have come against some of the section’s lesser lights while we are at the stage of the season when Maurico Pochettino cannot afford a slip-up of any sort if they hold any hope of reeling in Chelsea.

I am sure there will be plenty of punters happy to rely on Burnley doing the business once more and snaffling something from the fixture considering they are odds-against in the Double Chance betting.

A return from the international break does present an additional dimension to consider and if the home side are not bang on the money then they will be punished.

Prediction: Burnley 1-3 Tottenham  

Opta facts: 

o Burnley have won just one of their five previous Premier League games against Tottenham (W1 D1 L3), back in May 2010 when Brian Laws’ already-relegated side won 4-2.

o Spurs have scored at least two goals in four of their five previous Premier League matches against the Clarets, but failed to score in their last visit to Turf Moor in April 2015.

o Ashley Barnes has scored in two of his previous three league games against Tottenham, but both have been in White Hart Lane defeats for Burnley.

o Dele Alli has been involved in 10 goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Tottenham Hotspur in 2017 so far (eight goals, two assists).

o No side in Premier League history has won a higher proportion of their games (83%) or total points (78%) at home. Of Burnley’s 24 Premier League wins, 20 have come at Turf Moor.

o Christian Eriksen has assisted 23 goals in the Premier League since the start of 2015-16; no player has more (Ozil also has 23).

Chelsea v Crystal Palace (1500)


It is no shock to see Premier League pacesetters Chelsea as the shortest-priced side on Saturday’s coupon as they continue to tick off the games on the way to glory.

Ten points clear and 10 games to go, Antonio Conte needs seven more victories to claim the title in his debut season and there look to be few flaws in the champions elect at the moment.

They were given a very physical workout last time at Stoke but still had the reserves to secure all three points in the closing stages despite it being one of their less convincing overall performances.

Conte will be without Eden Hazard once again which means another opportunity for the in-form Willian as they play host to an Eagles outfit that has rediscovered its mojo lately under Sam Allardyce. 

The burly strategist seems to be working his magic once again with Palace enjoying a three-game winning streak with no goals conceded and has them four points clear of the bottom three.

Allardyce’s contribution and nous in this situation, Mamadou Sakho���s influence in the back four and greater confidence shown from flair players Wilfrid Zaha and Andros Townsend have produced a heady concoction currently that could ultimately lead them to safety.

However, before everyone at Selhurst Park starts high-fiving one another, Palace must still play every team currently in the top six so they are going to have to pull a rabbit or two out of the hat before we are done and dusted.

It starts with them priced up as 12/1 chances for all three points at Stamford Bridge and what worries me is they could not manage a shot on target in their latest 1-0 victory over Watford, relying on an own goal from Troy Deeney to create separation.

That sort of production will not cut any ice against a side that has conceded just eight times at home all season in the top flight and a blip – perhaps only temporary – is all I can predict for Allardyce.

Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Crystal Palace

Opta facts:

o Chelsea have won four of their last five Premier League games against the Eagles, losing the other at Stamford Bridge last season.

o Crystal Palace’s away win at Chelsea in August 2015 is their only top-flight away win at Stamford Bridge (D5 L8).

o Chelsea have won the most points in London derbies this season in the Premier League (15), while Palace have lost all five they’ve been involved in.

o Chelsea have used the fewest players (21) and made the fewest changes to their starting XI overall (26) in the Premier League this season. In 2015-16, the champions Leicester City also topped these categories (33 changes to starting XI and 23 players used).

o Diego Costa's next Premier League goal will be his 50th in the competition and would be the seventh Chelsea player to reach that milestone for the club. 

o If Costa does score in this game, he will have reached 50 goals in 81 Premier League appearances. The only players to do this in fewer games were Andrew Cole (65), Alan Shearer (66), Ruud van Nistelrooy (68) and Fernando Torres (72) and he would equal Sergio Aguero’s record (81 games).

o This game could see the top three most fouled players in the 2016-17 Premier League season on the pitch – Wilfried Zaha (78 fouls won), Eden Hazard (75) and Diego Costa (68).

o Chelsea have scored the first goal of a Premier League game on a league-high 22 occasions this season, while only Sunderland (20) have conceded the first goal more often than Palace (19).

Hull v West Ham (1500)


An interesting season for the Hammers continues apace with some agitated executives far from happy with recent performances and manager Slaven Bilic’s future seemingly in doubt despite a current position of relative safety.

Three of the next four fixtures for West Ham are against teams in the bottom four and a notable upturn in their fortunes is both expected and demanded by the boardroom.

It is additional and unnecessary pressure for the Croat who will be forced into a number of changes as well with Michail Antonio, Winston Reid and Pedro Obiang all ruled out as he attempts to turn around a run which has seen them lose three straight and unable to keep a clean sheet for eight games.  

On a brighter note, they have produced some very good performances on the road since Christmas when required while Manuel Lanzini has really stepped up to the plate as the senior playmaker since Dimitri Payet decided he was better off back in Marseille. 

It is not panic stations for the Hammers just yet but Hull are on the brink and face a vital few days with another home fixture against fellow strugglers Middlesbrough coming up on Wednesday. 

They have been dreadful away from home and capitulated last time at Everton following the red card shown to Tom Huddlestone but manager Marco Silva can draw on a stout, undefeated home record in 2017. 

Huddlestone’s subsequent three-game suspension is a problem that has to be solved considering the midfielder has started every Premier League fixture of the season and it is exactly the area I would have expected Bilic to exploit successfully if his side had been a bit closer to full strength.

Silva will focus on plugging that gap first and foremost so it is unlikely we will see strikers Abel Hernandez and Oumar Niasse on from the start but that lively combination should fashion a chance or two somewhere along the line and leads me to believe this could well end up all square.

Prediction: Hull 1-1 West Ham 

Opta facts:

o Hull City have never lost a home Premier League match against the Hammers (W2 D2).

o However, West Ham are unbeaten in their last four Premier League clashes with the Tigers (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet in the last two.

o West Ham’s last seven Premier League goals against Hull have all come in the second half of games.

o Robert Snodgrass - who joined West Ham from Hull in January - is still the Tigers’ top scoring player this season in the Premier League (7).

o Marco Silva hasn’t lost a home league match as a manager in over three years. His last home defeat in league competition was for Estoril against Rio Ave on 30th March 2014 – since then he’s gone 38 league games on home turf without a loss (W31 D7 L0) with four clubs (Estoril, Sporting, Olympiakos and Hull).

o West Ham players have cumulatively made 10 errors leading to opposition goals in the Premier League this season; more than any other side. 

o Andy Carroll has played the full 90 minutes in each of West Ham United's last three Premier League games – he hasn���t done this in four successive games in the competition since April 2014.

o The Hammers have conceded more goals in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season than any other team in the Premier League (8).

o Hull City have conceded the most goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League matches this season in the Premier League (20).

Leicester v Stoke (1500)


This should be an interesting game for the champions in so much as we will now find out how much pizzazz interim boss Craig Shakespeare still has in his magic wand following the international break.

He could join a select band of managers to win their first four Premier League fixtures in charge but the momentum for him and his team has been rather disrupted and picking up from where they left off might not come quite as easily as anticipated.

The quality of the form in that recent upswing can be questioned too as Liverpool were well off the pace, Hull and West Ham have the second and fourth-worst defences at the moment and Sevilla appeared guilty of underestimating their opponent in the Champions League.

The latter is something a Mark Hughes-coached side won’t ever be accused of and it would have stung a fair amount they could not hang on and take a point against Chelsea last time despite matching the leaders for large periods of the game.

Any realistic hopes of cracking the top six are gone but they are in pole position among the gaggle of teams chasing a top-half finish – something they could achieve for a fourth successive occasion and enough of a motivational tool certainly for the next few weeks at least.

Knocking their rivals off from down the A50 is another reason to expect a bold effort from the Potters while there is an element of having a score to settle too following their last meeting in December when they threw away a 2-0 lead in an ill-tempered affair that ended in parity.

If you are after a short one this week, then the visitors in the Double Chance betting makes some appeal at 5/6 and are well capable of giving the Foxes something to think about.

Prediction: Leicester 1-1 Stoke 

Opta facts:

o Leicester City have lost just one of their five previous Premier League games against Stoke (W2 D2).

o The Potters have been the victors just once in their last eight trips to Leicester in all competitions (D4 L3).

o Leonardo Ulloa has scored in three of his previous five Premier League games against Stoke, but hasn’t featured in a Premier League game for the Foxes since January.

o Craig Shakespeare could be the first British manager to win his first four Premier League games. The only other managers to win their opening four Premier League matches are Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti.

o Jamie Vardy has scored three goals and assisted two more in his three Premier League appearances under Craig Shakespeare for Leicester City – the same number that he’d managed in his previous 18 games in the competition.

o Riyad Mahrez has scored in his both of his last two Premier League games for Leicester. He hasn’t scored in three in a row since December 2015.

Manchester United v West Brom (1500)


Replete following my successful tip on a West Brom game at last, I am going to roll the dice once more on Tony Pulis’ side at Old Trafford. 

The Baggies are brimming with confidence following a convincing 3-1 scoreline over Arsenal and punters have already latched onto the fact with their odds shortening up all the time in both the win market and Double Chance.

They may have enjoyed only a measly 23% in terms of possession but more than made up for that in terms of desire and commitment, an issue Pulis has been keen to highlight with continued praise for tight-knit, hard-working group of players.

The notable carrot of achieving their best-ever points tally in the Premier League is still very much dangling in front of them so expect no slackening off between now and the middle of May. 

While West Brom chip away solely in the Premier League, Jose Mourinho is attempting to keep a number of balls in the air with chances to win the FA Cup and Europa League as well.

Expect the Portuguese to be in full-on whinge mode too over the next few weeks with nine games to play in April and the potential of just a few days of rest squeezed in between games for his squad.

The run-in has not got off to the best start either with United possibly without up to seven first-team regulars due to suspension and injury this weekend and West Brom are exactly the sort of team who will test out one the big guns in terms of how robust they are feeling.

As mentioned, punters feel the Red Devils could be vulnerable here and Mourinho has already given a little hint his best option when it comes to getting back into the Champions League is winning in Europe so his tip-top resources might be best deployed on that front.

I am not saying he has given up on the top four but butting horns with Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City will be a draining and something may have to give.

West Brom are very much in the mood to give them a nudge in the wrong direction and well up to springing another surprise.

Prediction: Manchester United 0-1 West Brom   

Opta facts: 

o Manchester United have lost two of their last three home Premier League games against West Brom (W1), this after being unbeaten in the previous seven.

o Aside from those two wins, West Brom have failed to score in three of their last five league games at Old Trafford.

o Wayne Rooney has scored seven goals and assisted five more in his last 10 Premier League appearances against West Bromwich Albion.

o A visiting player has been sent off in two of the last three Premier League games between these two (Juan Mata in March 2016, Gareth McAuley in November 2015).

o Manchester United have scored with just 9.1% of their shots in the Premier League this season; their lowest shot conversion ratio in the competition in a single season since 2005-06 (8.2%).

o The Red Devils have already had 33 more shots (463) and 26 more shots on target (170) this Premier League season than they did in the whole 2015-16 under Louis van Gaal.

o West Bromwich Albion have scored more goals from defenders (12) than any other Premier League team this season.     

Watford v Sunderland (1500)


Fair play to a devastated captain Troy Deeney for fronting up to the media after his mis-directed header handed Crystal Palace all three points last time but these are slightly worrying times at Vicarage Road.

That was a third defeat from four matches and there will be a few around the club shifting a little uneasily in their seats unless Walter Mazzarri can rally the troops as some improved form from those below them has cut the deficit in the standings.

It was a typically scrappy affair against Palace in the circumstances at this time of year so perhaps the break for the internationals could have come at the right time for the Hornets as they try to regroup and freshen up. 

Sunderland’s need for points is even more pressing as they sit rooted to the foot of the table and seven points from safety.

To my eye, they did not look like a team in such a dire predicament in the 0-0 stalemate against Burnley as they displayed plenty of craft and endeavour but could not force the ball over the line and get their noses in front. 

It just about sums up how the season has gone for David Moyes but there remains time to launch an 11th-hour recovery operation and the possibility of getting Lee Cattermole and Victor Anichebe back from long-term injury issues soon – possibly even here – will be a handy boost.

There is talent in the ranks on both sides who have the ability to lift this above a scrappy slugfest but a share of the spoils seems a reasonable conclusion to come to with little to split the pair. 

Prediction: Watford 1-1 Sunderland  

Opta facts: 

o Watford have won just one of their previous five Premier League meetings with Sunderland (D1 L3).

o The Black Cats haven’t lost an away game against Watford in any competition since January 1999, drawing each of the last three (W1).

o Sunderland have only failed to score in three of their previous 37 league meetings with Watford.

o Jermain Defoe has scored against 35 different teams in the Premier League, but is yet to score against Watford in the competition (four apps, no goals).

o Only Sunderland (31) have used more players in the Premier League this season than Watford (30 – level with Crystal Palace).

Southampton v Bournemouth (1730)


The day starts and finishes with a derby clash and although hardly of the same magnitude as Merseyside – or even Saints v Portsmouth – this could be a fixture on the rise as long as they stick around in the top flight.

Round one prior to Christmas went to Southampton in convincing fashion 3-1 and they are a warm order to complete the double but the nature of the scheduling lately means they have had very little game time with Claude Puel a tad worried his players could struggle to be fully focused.

He has had a squad of just six players to work with this week in the build-up while the majority have been away on international duty – central defender Maya Yoshida has travelled a whopping 14,000 miles to represent Japan.

It seems very likely Puel will also be without striker Manolo Gabbiadini with this game coming too soon following the injury he picked up at Tottenham, the January arrival has certainly proved a difference maker and the onus now flicks back onto Shane Long and/or Jay Rodriguez. 

The Cherries were certainly teetering a bit early in 2017 but the backs-to-the-wall 1-1 draw at Manchester United proved a watershed moment with a pair of victories to follow and a clean sheet to boot last time against Swansea. 

There is work still to do despite being nine points clear of danger currently but the 54 goals they have shipped is the third worst in the section – an issue still to be fearful of even without the marauding Gabbiadini patrolling the danger area.

It is reasonable to assume this is perhaps the most positive little spell of the season for Eddie Howe and his team so there is some potential to catch the hosts unaware if Southampton do start sluggishly.

Yoshida’s travels could see him rested so his promising partnership at the back broken up with Jack Stephens will mean a start for Martin Caceres – that bit of uncertainty can be exploited by the mobile visiting attack and a bet on a fired-up Bournemouth to score first is suggested.

Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Bournemouth

Opta facts: 

o Southampton have won two of their three Premier League games against their south coast rivals Bournemouth (L1).

o The Cherries have never won an away match at Southampton in any competition (D4 L8).

o Saints have won each of their last three meetings at home to Bournemouth by a 2-0 scoreline, twice in the Premier League and once in the League Cup.

o Jay Rodriguez scored twice in Southampton’s 3-1 win over Bournemouth in December – half of his Premier League season tally (4 in 16 apps).

o Josh King has eight goals and one assist in his last eight Premier League appearances for Bournemouth.

o Southampton have named the same starting XI in their last three Premier League games – they haven’t done this for four successive league matches since a run of five matches in November-December 2012.

o 33 points is Southampton’s lowest points tally in a Premier League season after 27 games since 2012-13 (27). At this stage last season they’d won 40 points, in 2014-15 it was 46 points and in 2013-14 they had 39 points.

o Bournemouth have been awarded a league-high nine penalties in the Premier League this season.


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