The Premier League returns after the international break and Tom Carnduff has four best bets for Saturday's action.
1pt Chelsea (-1 handicap) to beat Newcastle at 11/8
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Aston Villa v Brighton at 17/10
1pt Tottenham to beat Manchester City at 16/5
2pts Manchester United 20+ booking points v West Brom at 13/10
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Some positive results against PSG and RB Leipzig in the Champions League have made an awful start to the season seem better for Manchester United. They are 14th with just ten points from a possible 21. Not many would have expected only four places to separate these two sides by now.
The form at Old Trafford remains a concern but this game does give them the opportunity to wrap up that first home league win of the season. Arsenal were successful last time out, Tottenham hit six and Crystal Palace won 3-1. The problems are there and a lack of consistency is an issue that won't go away for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
West Brom's away form is hardly going to convince anyone to take the 9/1 available on an away win. Manchester United's -1 handicap price of 19/20 is decent enough if we're searching for an outright option but backing the hosts to pick up a couple of cards brings a much better 13/10.
While the expectation is that the Baggies will see the majority of the bookings, their form throughout the campaign suggests that might not be the case. They've only been shown more cards in one of their last five outings and sit low in the Premier League cards chart.
Manchester United, on the other hand, have been seeing cards on a more regular basis. They have had 20+ booking points in four of their last six contests while they have had 10+ in all 12 of their competitive games this season. It doesn't matter which opponent they are against, Solskjaer's men are regularly picking up bookings.
The bonus for this bet is that West Brom have seen plenty of fouls committed against them. They sit second in the Premier League in this area (13 per game), only Aston Villa with Jack Grealish have seen more. There is also David Coote's appointment as referee, an official who has shown at least three yellow cards in six of his seven outings this season.
With all this in mind, it's a surprise to see United at odds-against for 20+ booking points and Betfair provide the best price at 13/10, although Sky Bet come close at 5/4 if that price disappears. Rather than take the little value in the outright market, the best bet can be found in the cards.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Manchester United 20+ booking points at 13/10
Chelsea's five-game run of clean sheets came to an end against Sheffield United last time out but the important factor is that they have been winning those contests. The last four have all ended in victory with at least a three-goal margin.
It should be expected given their Champions League group but they are in the right area of the Premier League table too. Against a Newcastle side who have picked up points but have failed to inspire, Frank Lampard should enjoy another win to take back on the long trip home to London.
Newcastle's home form has been hit-and-miss. They beat an Everton side missing key players while also securing victory over struggling Burnley. But they have been beaten by three-goal margins against both Brighton and Manchester United.
The hosts sit 13th in the but Infogol's model based on performance has them in 15th. For Chelsea, they have been performing as a top-three team and that should show in the first game back following the international break.
Hakim Ziyech is a name to watch after his impressive showings during limited minutes and the 12/5 with Sky Bet for him to score anytime could be worth consideration when searching the goalscorer markets. He scored against Burnley and picked up two assists against Sheffield United.
But, with Chelsea's convincing margins of victory in mind, the 11/8 available on the away side on the -1 handicap looks great value. Chelsea's seven wins across all competitions this season have all been by two goals or more - when they are winning they are doing so comfortably.
With an away win priced at lower than 1/2 in the outright betting, the better price comes in the handicap markets. It's 7/2 that Chelsea win with a -2 handicap but playing it safer and taking the -1 still provides good enough value. Chelsea can, briefly, enjoy top spot in the Premier League on Saturday.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Chelsea (-1 handicap) to beat Newcastle at 11/8
Aston Villa couldn't have asked for a better start to the Premier League campaign. They have picked up 15 points from a possible 21 and sit in the top-six after seven games. Brighton, on the other hand, are still struggling to win matches. The one positive at least is that they have been picking up points.
They aren't actually a bad side but the lack of wins remains a huge concern and it isn't a problem exclusive to this season. The four teams below Brighton in the table have failed to impress but they could easily be dragged into a relegation scrap if results don't start coming on a more regular basis.
Villa's 6/5 price immediately grabs the eye given their current position in the table but the 13/5 on a draw is better here given Brighton's involvement. The lack of wins is one thing but they have drawn three of their last four, with defeats coming against an Everton side who made a great start and Tottenham who could well be serious title contenders.
I am always hesitant to back the outright results given the nature of this Brighton side. Not a bad team at all but one with little productivity, which feels like an odd statement given how they are in double figures for goals scored after eight games.
However, this fixture does present a great chance of a high corner count given their records so far. Villa had eleven in their home contest against Southampton and followed that up with eight at Arsenal. For Brighton, they have won the corner battle in their last four away games in all competitions.
Both teams sit inside the top-four for total corners taken in the Premier League this season so it sets it up to be a game with a high count. The question is how many, but given the recent form of both, backing over 11.5 at a price of 17/10, as low as 6/4 elsewhere, looks the best value.
I'd avoid this game for the Saturday accumulators but if I was forced to pick an outright option I'd settle on the draw. Instead, going for corners is the best avenue.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Over 11.5 corners at 17/10
The highlight of Saturday's Premier League action comes in the evening kick-off when Tottenham will be hoping they can continue their fine start to the campaign as they welcome a Manchester City side who recently tied Pep Guardiola to a new deal.
City are odds-on for victory here and that can be put down to their run of good results since the shock 5-2 home defeat to Leicester in September but Spurs have demonstrated that they have grown under Jose Mourinho's guidance.
Perhaps crucially, they have also shown that they can continue to get results during a hectic schedule where they were balancing Premier League, Carabao Cup and Europa League involvement. In 15 competitive games this season, Tottenham have lost just twice.
Ten of those games ended in victory in 90 minutes and they of course beat City in this fixture last term. City's away performances this season have varied - they drew with Leeds and West Ham before narrowly getting past struggling Sheffield United.
It'll be interesting to see how Tottenham approach this game and whether Mourinho goes back to his previous self after overseeing a very attack-minded team so far. He's an expert at shutting games down and neutralising an opponent with a strong attack of their own. That is easier said than done against this City side.
They stayed with their attacking mentality in the 6-1 hammering of Manchester United and it's clearly a winning formula. Big game management comes into it but Tottenham have enough about them to get past this City side on current form.
In terms of the individual bets, Serge Aurier is a decent one when it comes to bookings with Mike Dean in charge. He's likely to come in for the unavailable Matt Doherty and had a huge four fouls in his last Premier League outing (3-3 v West Ham). He can be backed at 9/4 with Sky Bet to be shown a card.
But the best bet can be found in the outright market and backing Tottenham to continue their good run of results so far. It's a win that would see them reclaim top spot in the Premier League whatever happens in the earlier kick-offs.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Tottenham to win at 16/5
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (19/11/20)
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