Free football betting tips: Premier League under/over betting coupon best bets from Infogol's expected goals model
Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League and Championship action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Liverpool vs West Ham – Over 2.5 Goals @ 2/5
- Saturday, 17:30
Liverpool got back to winning ways domestically last weekend, beating Sheffield United deservedly despite the eye test suggesting it was hard work (xG: LIV 2.8 – 1.7 SHU).
They created plenty, as they have throughout the season so far, but Jurgen Klopp’s side have looked much more vulnerable defensively this term (1.51 xGA per game) than last (1.13 xGA per game).
The Reds are missing Virgil van Dijk and Joel Matip, and their back-up centre-back Fabinho also picked up an injury in midweek, so they are light on the ground in defence which should lead to another unconvincing defensive display.
West Ham are not the ideal opponent for an undermanned Liverpool defence either, as David Moyes’ side have been extremely impressive through six games.
The Hammers sit fifth in our xG table after the opening throws of the season, which is impressive, especially given the opponents they have faced (@ARS, vs WOL, @LEI, @TOT, vs MCI).
Their process has been excellent too (1.69 xGF, 1.13 xGA per game), creating plenty of good chances seemingly on a regular basis, and they will fancy their chances of netting a few at Anfield.
It is a short price, but the over 2.5 goals in this game given the attacking nature of both sides still looks like a value bet.
Newcastle vs Everton – Under 2.5 Goals @ EVS
- Sunday, 14:30
Newcastle gained an undeserved point at Wolves last Sunday, the second time they have done that following a 1-1 draw at Tottenham a few weeks prior.
Steve Bruce’s side racked up just 0.27 xGF at Molineux, as his negative approach continues to be a tedious watch even though he has some exciting talent at his disposal.
Overall this season, the Magpies have averaged 1.05 xGF per game, ranking as the fourth worst attacking team in the league, and I expect another defensive-minded set-up in this game.
Everton lost for the first time this season, going down 2-0 at Southampton in what was by far and away their worst display of the campaign, especially in attack (xG: SOU 0.7 – 0.3 EVE).
They missed Richarlison greatly and failed to deal with Southampton’s high intensity throughout the 90 minutes. To make matters worse, Lucas Digne was sent off and will miss this game.
Digne averaged 0.22 xA/avg match last season, and was averaging 0.18 through six games this campaign, so will be a huge miss, as is Richarlison (0.72 xGI/avg match).
My concern with Everton this season has always been the lack of depth. Their starting XI is one of the best in the league, but behind that, there is a big drop in quality.
Without two of their best attacking players this weekend, I think the Toffees will struggle in attack again, especially given Newcastle’s defensive approach, so the price about under 2.5 goals is a huge value play according to the Infogol model.
Tottenham vs Brighton – Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/13
- Sunday, 19:15
It was unusual to see Spurs so subdued on Monday night, and I think that is credit to Burnley’s dogged approach, with Jose Mourinho’s side having to grind out a narrow win (xG: BUR 1.1 – 0.8 TOT).
They got the three points by taking their big chance, another Heung-Min Son goal assisted by Harry Kane, but I feel as though we will see the more free-flowing Spurs we have seen in recent weeks.
Only Liverpool (15.7) have racked up more xGF than Tottenham (13.3) this season, with their average of 2.21 xGF per game drastically up on their 19/20 average of 1.37 xGF (albeit with a small sample).
They play a Brighton side who have been equally as impressive as Tottenham this season, without getting the results to show for it.
Graham Potter must have been livid on Monday night, as the Seagulls were dominant in the first half against West Brom without killing the game off, ultimately drawing 1-1.
Brighton sit fourth in our xG table through six matches, with a process we would come to expect from a top half team (1.68 xGF, 1.18 xGA per game), creating plenty of chances in pretty much every game.
Spurs are yet to win at home this season, losing to Everton before drawing with Newcastle and West Ham, and I think Brighton will and should take the game to their hosts, which should mean goals.
Over 2.5 goals is short enough but is a selection I like in what should be an open game.
Fulham vs West Brom – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
- Monday, 17:30
Fulham remain winless after a disappointing home defeat to Crystal Palace in which they again conceded a host of chances (xG: FUL 1.0 – 2.7 CRY).
They sit second bottom of our xG table, with the second worst defence according to expected goals (1.95 xGA per game), with their attack not much better (1.11 xGF per game).
I feel as though Scott Parker isn’t getting the best out of this squad, and that was the case last season too, where they were fortunate to make the play-offs (7th xG table in Championship).
West Brom have tightened things up defensively of late, but still boast the worst xGA total (12.3) and xGF total (3.3) through six matches.
A draw at Brighton was a good result, but they struggled to create good chances once again, with their xGF per game of 0.55 on pace to be historically bad.
Since 14/15, when Infogol started collecting Premier League data, the worst attacking teams in a single season were Huddersfield in 18/19 (0.89 xGF per game) and Aston Villa in 15/16 (0.82 xGF per game).
This is a six-pointer, and so should be cagey with neither team wanting to lose. Couple that with the shocking attacking numbers we have seen from these two sides, and the under 2.5 goals at 8/11 looks a strong value play.
Leeds vs Leicester – Under 2.5 Goals @ EVS
- Monday, 20:00
Leeds made a statement last Friday with their dominant performance against then-unbeaten Aston Villa, with Patrick Bamford netting a hat-trick to take his tally to six.
Bamford is getting his revenge on xG, with those goals coming from 3.4 xG this term after scoring only 16 times from chances equating to 24.3 xG.
Overall, I have been impressed with what Marcelo Bielsa’s side have done, but along with the thrilling games, they have thrown in some low-scoring ones too against the more organised units.
Leicester fall into that category, with Brendan Rodgers’ side now a far cry from the high octane, back-to-front unit that won the Premier League in 15/16.
They are a possession-based side that bide their time in matches, as shown against Arsenal last weekend, where they limited the Gunners well before crafting one big chance late on.
Process-wise, they have been solid through six games (1.57 xGF, 1.20 xGA per game), and this is an intriguing match-up of styles between the high-press of Leeds and the possession preference play of the Foxes.
I feel as though this game could be similar to what we saw when Leeds played Wolves, with the teams cancelling eachother out in a cautious game. In that case, the under 2.5 goals looks too big at even money.
- The 5-fold accumulator pays around 15/1 with Sky Bet
Odds correct on 0900 BST (29/10/20)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
