Newcastle welcome top-four hopefuls Arsenal on Monday Night Football. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Arsenal's hopes of securing a top-four finish were hit by a 3-0 defeat to North London rivals Tottenham on Thursday. They still sit a point ahead in the Premier League table but they know that any slip up now can be capitalised on.
That said, at the time of writing, they could well know that a win secures Champions League football again. Given the differences in kick-off times, Arsenal have the advantage with an extra day rest.
Newcastle's season is done with very little to play for. That will be more than welcome given their potential relegation under Steve Bruce - a top-half finish remains a possibility.
Despite that defeat on Thursday, Infogol rates Arsenal as a 52% chance of winning this game. They may have issues in defence though with Rob Holding suspended and Gabriel going off injured at Tottenham.
Ben White wasn't risked with the game seemingly over when they needed him - Monday would have been in-mind for Mikel Arteta - but there could be questions surrounding who plays alongside him.
Arsenal may have enough to get all three points but Newcastle should get opportunities and with that, the 10/11 on OVER 2.5 GOALS looks a solid bet.
After all, Newcastle have scored in eight of their last nine home contests. The only game that fell short was the 1-0 loss to title hopefuls Liverpool - that can be expected.
For the Gunners, backing three or more goals would have won in four of their last five games on the road. They netted four at Chelsea before getting two at Arsenal.
It was a bad performance on Thursday and they know a response is needed. Under Howe, Newcastle have conceded an average of 1.65 xGA per game - with 1.36 xGA in home games.
Potential defensive issues should help the hosts strike. They've generated an average of 1.38 xGF per home contest with Howe at the helm.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1220 BST (13/05/22)
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.