Leicester boss Brendan Rodgers

Leicester v Brentford tips: Premier League best bets and preview

After a fairly tumultuous summer, Leicester begin the season by hosting Brentford. Liam Kelly previews the game, selecting a best bet.

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (bet365, Unibet, Boylesports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Betting guide image - USE THIS ONE (but delete caption)

There's an air of mystery as to what exactly is going on in Leicester at the moment.

Kasper Schmeichel has been sold to Nice and Newcastle bids have been rejected for James Maddison. Youri Tielemans and Wesley Fofana could be on their way out, too.

All the while, there have been zero incomings this summer. It's hardly an ideal way to head into the 2022/23 campaign, one that starts with the Foxes hosting Brentford.

Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday

Leicester 1/1 | Draw 13/5 | Brentford 13/5

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Perhaps it is a little soon to be suggesting that Leicester will struggle, however. After all, Schmeichel was distinctly average in the Leicester goal last season, and none of the other names mentioned have actually left the club yet.

A small drift on the home side is still not enough to make their price appealing. Indeed, the match odds should be avoided in this one.

Brentford's outstanding maiden season in the Premier League was evidence enough that second-season syndrome won't affect such a well run club, but the loss of Christian Eriksen to Manchester United will be a huge blow.

Brentford with Christian Eriksen in the starting eleven

With Eriksen in the starting eleven after his surprise January signing, Brentford gained 22 points from a possible 30, averaging 1.92 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.33 expected goals against (xGA) per game.

You'd have to believe their attacking output will take a hit, but I feel comfortable in thinking Thomas Frank's defence can step up and stay in plenty of games, especially with a full preparation for a season opener on the road.

UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the 11/10 selection for this strangely scheduled match-up, albeit with small stakes.

Most likely posted at odds-against as a result of Leicester's dire defensive performance last season, allowing the third most xGA in the top tier, there's reason to think Brendan Rodgers can expect better from that unit this term.

Expected goals against (xGA) | Premier League 2021/22

Injuries were a major factor in Leicester's issues at the back. They look a lot less susceptible in that area entering the new season, though.

Granted, that doesn't guarantee that Rodgers' side will be solid after a tumultuous summer, but backing two goals or fewer appears the value play at the prices.

Leicester v Brentford score prediction and best bets

  • 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (bet365, Unibet, Boylesports)

Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct 1700 BST (04/08/22)

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