The latest Infogol Acca - powered by Expected Goals (xG)

Football accumulator tips and best bet: Infogol Treble and NAP for Sunday, May 9


After a recent 7/1 acca success Jake Osgathorpe looks to a bag another Sunday winner, this week building a boosted 9/2 treble.

Football betting tips: Sunday May 9 best bet

2pts Under 2.5 Goals in Real Madrid v Sevilla at 19/20 (General) (NAP)

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  • Real Madrid v Sevilla (20:00 BST): UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • Juventus v AC Milan (19:45 BST): BTTS
  • Rennes v PSG (20:00 BST): BTTS
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Sunday brings about a huge game in the La Liga title race. REAL MADRID head into the weekend just two points behind Atletico Madrid, who play at third-placed Barcelona on Saturday, and must keep winning if they are to retain their title.

Zinedine Zidane's side looked shattered in midweek, as they exited the Champions League at the semi-final stage against Chelsea. They have faced a grueling schedule of late, and that has shown in their results, as their attack has struggled to create.

UNDER 2.5 GOALS has become commonplace once again for Los Blancos, with nine of their last 13 La Liga matches seeing two goals or fewer. Real have been the fourth best defensive team in the league according to expected goals, allowing 1.15 xGA per game, and opponents SEVILLA sit top in that metric.

Julen Lopetegui's side blew their title chances on Monday, losing at home to Athletic Bilbao. They are now six points adrift with four games left, but this is a fixture that will have his full attention, given that Madrid fired him not so long ago. As mentioned, Sevilla are the best defensive team in the league according to xG, allowing 1.05 xGA per game, and that has contributed to 68% of their matches seeing under 2.5 goals. This one should follow suit.


What is expected goals (xG)?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
  • Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
  • Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
  • xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances

Over in Italy, it is the battle for Champions League football that takes centre stage. JUVENTUS currently sit third in Serie A, but are only two points clear of fifth-placed Napoli and five clear of sixth-placed Lazio, who have a game in hand. Cristiano Ronaldo saved their bacon last weekend in a 2-1 win over Udinese, scoring twice in the last 10 minutes to keep them in control of their top four destiny.

It has been anything but vintage Juventus this season, with their defence in particular being regularly exposed. Andrea Pirlo's side have kept clean sheets in just 24% of their Serie A matches. AC MILAN were looking likely to be title contenders at the halfway stage of the season, but have fallen away dramatically.

Like Juve, Milan have struggled defensively this term, allowing an average of 1.34 xGA per game and keeping clean sheets in just 29% of matches. Both sides do pack a punch in attack, though, so an open and goal-laden game is expected here. The last two meetings between these sides have seen at least four goals, while both teams have seen BOTH TEAMS SCORE in over 55% of their league games this term. The same again please.

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The Ligue 1 title race is as enthralling as the La Liga one, but its now a straight shootout between Lille and PSG. Mauricio Pochettino's men travel west to take on a RENNES team who are two points behind the final European spot in France.

Rennes have been good to follow for goals of late, mainly due to their improving attacking process. They have averaged 1.70 xGF per game in their last six, so have more than enough firepower to hurt what is turning into a vulnerable PSG defence.

Les Parisiens were knocked out of the Champions League by Manchester City in midweek, and remain a point behind Lille in the Ligue 1 standings, so it is threatening to be a disastrous season by PSG standards. In the league, while they have won five of their last six, they haven't kept a clean sheet in that time, which must be of concern in the capital. It does mean that BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE looks likely at Roazhon Park on Sunday, though.


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CLICK HERE for our latest Premier League correct score tips column

Odds correct at 14:30 BST (29/04/21)

In line with Sky Bet's rules on Help & Support on any Enhanced Accumulators, if a match is postponed or abandoned the Infogol Accumulator will be settled on the results of the remaining games, as a win reduction if all remaining legs win or a loser if the selection is let down by any legs.


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