Fiorentina are worth a bet
Fiorentina are worth a bet

Europa League betting preview and tips: Shakhtar solid


Spurs face Gent in the Europa League on Thursday but an interest in Fiorentina looks a better investment, says Andy Schooler.

Recommended bets:


1pt double Shakhtar Donetsk & Fiorentina win double at 3.05/1

Worrying about team news has been a constant theme with this season's Europa League previews, although last week showed sometimes no matter what you know things can go array.

Spurs played a strong side away to Gent with the Belgians making several changes as they prioritised making the play-offs in their domestic league - exactly what had been suggested as likely on these pages.

In theory, that should have made life easy for Tottenham but they duly produced one of their most disappointing displays of the season, going down 1-0.

Maybe it would have been different had Harry Kane scored rather than clipping the post when the game was goalless but now Spurs face a real test at Wembley, their adopted home for European games this season.

A lack of an away goal means if Gent score the hosts will need three and their poor record at the national stadium does not inspire confidence.

Following Champions League defeats against Monaco and Leverkusen earlier this season, Spurs had lost six in a row at the venue and although CSKA Moscow have since been beaten to end that streak, it's still a factor.

How significant will depend on your point of view but mine is that Spurs are definitely not as comfortable in unfamiliar surroundings (four wins in 13 Premier League away games perhaps adds weight to that) and their displays against Monaco and Leverkusen were certainly far from their impressive best.

Another factor to consider is how far up the priority list this fixture is in N17 (or should that be HA9?). With a top-four Premier League slot highly sought-after and Spurs now facing a home quarter-final against League One opponents in the FA Cup, it's easy to suggest they can do without this competition with its disruptive Thursday schedule.

Despite the position of the tie heading into the second leg, you can get Gent at 7/4 to qualify which makes some appeal.

However, having been stung in the first leg by Spurs' poor showing, I'm steering clear of this one and heading further down the coupon for alternative wagers.

It obviously makes sense to get involved only with ties that look alive - for instance I think you'd be mad to back Lyon at 2/5 given they are already three goals up - and the sides I'm keen on are Shakhtar Donetsk and Fiorentina.

The strengths of Shakhtar were highlighted in my recent outright betting preview of this competition and they started very much as we wanted them to, winning 1-0 away to Celta Vigo.

While clearly in the box seat, the Ukrainians still have work to do which should ensure boss Paulo Fonseca - yet to taste defeat after 26 games in the job - names a strong team.

Celta, winners of just two of 11 away games in La Liga this season, have Nemanja Radoja suspended while Daniel Wass, who played in the first leg, is an injury doubt.

Shakhtar have yet to concede even a single goal at home in this competition and while it is worth pointing out that they are now playing in Kharkiv, there have been no rumblings about that from within the camp and it's considerably nearer their true home.

For those unaware, they've been playing away from Donetsk for security reasons and it's been happening for a long time now so concerns that I'm being hypocritical after pointing out Spurs' deficiencies away from White Hart Lane are not really valid.

They still look backable at around 8/13 and I'll add them into a double with the bigger-priced Fiorentina, who also lead 1-0 heading into their home leg.

Borussia Monchengladbach are their opponents and while the Germans will feel aggrieved not to have got at least a draw from a good display last week, the fact is they have struggled away from home for a season and a half now.

In 2015/16 they lost 10 of their 17 Bundesliga away games, while this year they've won just two of 10, scoring seven and conceding 20. One of those wins was against Werder Bremen, who sit in the relegation zone. In Europe, they've been thrashed away at Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund.

Admittedly, signs of improvement have been there since the appointment of new boss Dieter Hecking pre-Christmas but heading to Florence is going to be another tough task.

Paulo Sousa's men have lost just once on home soil in this campaign with Serie A leaders Juventus among those beaten.

That loss came in the Europa League in a bizarre game with PAOK Salonika, the Greeks netting an injury-time winner after the Viola had come from 2-0 down and hit the bar on two occasions.

In a record which includes big Europa wins over Slovan Liberec and Qarabag, that result looks very much a one-off.

Throw in the visitors' ropey away record and 6/4 about a home win simply looks too big. Add that to Shakhtar and the double pays around the 3/1 mark which looks perfectly acceptable.

Posted at 1820 GMT on 22/02/17.

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