Brighton v Newcastle: Nick Hext's Championship preview
Our Sky Bet EFL expert Nick Hext is backing the draw in Tuesday night's big Championship game between Brighton and Newcastle.
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Brighton v Newcastle (1945 - Sky Sports 1)
There’s a blockbuster clash in the Sky Bet Championship to enjoy on Tuesday night as top-of-the-table Brighton host second-placed Newcastle at the Amex Stadium, live on Sky Sports 1 HD.
The Seagulls and Magpies have been swapping positions at the head of the standings for months and it’s hard to see anything between the division's two standout sides.
Brighton are 31/20 favourites to pick up the three points and Newcastle are the outsiders for the first time this season in the Sky Bet Championship to win at 11/5.
It’s tempting to throw some support the way of the Magpies but my instinct is to go with the draw at a general 23/10 given the state of play in the second tier of English football.
Brighton and Newcastle are six and five points clear respectively of third-placed Huddersfield, who don’t play in the league during midweek as they have an FA Cup replay to contend with at Manchester City.
A draw wouldn’t be a reason for either side to panic. Leeds are a further four points behind Huddersfield so realistically it’s only the Terriers who have any chance of catching the top two.
Newcastle drew at Norwich in their last away game, a tough test as the Canaries had won their last four home matches in the league leading up to that clash, and that should have Rafael Benitez’s men in good shape for their long trip south.
Brighton eased to a 3-0 win at home to Reading on Saturday evening but they’ve drawn two of their last five outings, against Brentford and Ipswich, and their form in the last six weeks has dropped off from their sensational final three months of 2016, when Chris Hughton’s men didn’t lose in 13 games.
Newcastle won 2-0 in the first meeting between these sides way back in August but I don’t put too much stock in that given the extra pressure on this midweek encounter.
Backing the draw and both teams to score at 4/1 is worthy of consideration but I’m going to stick with just the draw at 23/10.
It’s far from impossible that these sides completely cancel each other out and don’t be shocked if Benitez adopts a more cautious approach given the continuing absence of star striker Dwight Gayle.
Prediction: Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
Posted at 1730 GMT on 27/02/17.
Opta facts:
Brighton’s only defeat in their last seven matches against Newcastle in all competitions (W4 D2) came earlier this campaign in a 2-0 loss at St James’ Park.
The Magpies have never scored a goal at the Amex Stadium in two previous games there, both in the FA Cup.
The Seagulls have lost one of their last 19 home league games on a Tuesday (W14 D4), losing 1-0 to Ipswich in December 2015.
Newcastle, meanwhile, haven’t lost an away game on a Tuesday since going down to Spurs in December 2010, winning four and drawing three since.
Magpies striker Daryl Murphy has scored in each of his last four Championship appearances against Brighton (four goals).
Murphy is the highest scoring Championship opposition player at the Amex (since 2011/12), netting four goals in five previous appearances.
The Magpies are yet to win a Championship game in which they’ve conceded the first goal this season (D1 L6), while Brighton have won 18 out of 18 games in which they’ve scored first.
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