Can Fabinho replace Virgil van Dijk as Liverpool adjust to life without him?
It’s difficult to remember a more seismic injury in recent times.
Virgil van Dijk’s season-ending knee surgery has changed many an opinion of how ‘good’ Liverpool actually are - strange given he is just one element of a fantastic team, but also an indication of the Dutchman’s masterful control over the position in two faultless seasons.
And rivals now sense blood, seeing the Premier League champions as a more vulnerable opponent than before. And with the shaky form of Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, who is also now injured, the only other conventional centre-back, they would perhaps be correct to do so.
Boss Jurgen Klopp hopes Fabinho will fill that massive void long-term. After limping off against Midtjylland on Tuesday night with a hamstring injury, Liverpool hope the Brazilian will be available again after the international break, so, though the sample size is small, let’s look at how the defensive midfielder by trade has filled his team-mate’s boots before.
It’s virtually impossible to assess Liverpool’s form minus van Dijk prior to this injury, simply because he hardly ever missed a minute. In the previous two seasons he played in every Premier League and Champions League match.
Therefore our statistical sample size is small; we can only really look at how Fabinho did against Chelsea last month, Ajax in midweek and Sheffield United as games where he stepped into the breach. Therefore it’s important not to make sweeping statements.
However, from a statistical perspective Fabinho is obviously as comfortable on the ball as VVD. His passes P90 in those three matches is 71 with a completion rate of 93% (van Dijk 81 Passes P90 with 91%). He is the central player which brings wide men Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson into the game. From this perspective he is equally comfortable in performing his defensive midfield role 10-15 yards further back.
One other element where van Dijk utterly excels is in defensive duels. He averaged nine defensive duels in 2019/20 and won a gigantic 81% of them, bullying many an opposition forward out of the game. He may look like he strolls through contests but he has the ability to be as aggressive and competitive as any other centre-back. Likewise he won 79% of his 7.9 aerial challenges P90. These are key battles vital to winning back possession in 50/50 moments.
From this perspective - and again, small sample! - Fabinho isn’t as dominant. He has averaged 14 defensive challenges P90 and won 56% of those battles, while on the aerial challenges front - the Brazilian is five cms shorter than van Dijk - he won just 38% of his 4.3 aerial battles. Much of this drop comes from the Sheffield United game, when the visitors unashamedly made the match an aerial clash and chose to go direct at Liverpool.
As a result the match involved 55 aerial challenges, the most of the round in the Premier League, with United winning a round-high 33. Both Fabinho and Gomez were given a rough ride by Oli McBurnie who won 13 aerial battles all on his own, and this was a method that got at Liverpool and largely worked for long spells.
It might not have been such an obvious route to take had van Dijk been there. It will be interesting to see if this is a tactic other sides may implement.
But largely in terms of reading the game and retrieving the ball (interceptions plus recoveries) Fabinho is lining up similarly in stature to VVD which will be encouraging, and it’s important to remember that he is adapting to a role he has barely played in in his career.
What’s more, he is playing alongside a fragile Gomez at the moment, one looking for confidence and trying to recover his previous excellent form. At the moment Fabinho is not only having to adapt, but talk his young colleague through matches. It cannot be underestimated how tough it will be to do both of these things simultaneously and therefore Fabinho’s brief output in this position has to be taken in context.
In short, tougher times will come and when the matches mount up and the pressure is on, van Dijk’s imperious presence will unquestionably be missed. But Fabinho is about as good as an option as they have at the moment, and how teams attack the post-VVD Liverpool will be fascinating to watch.
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