Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for latest televised action in the Bundesliga with games across the weekend.
1pt Christopher Nkunku to score 2+ goals in RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen at 18/1 (General)
1pt Corentin Tolisso to score anytime in Bayern Munich v Arminia Bielefeld at 9/2 (General)
1pt Alphonso Davies to have 1+ assists in Bayern Munich v Arminia Bielefeld at 9/2 (Betfair)
The inconsistency of RB Leipzig makes them a difficult one for punters to work out. A 2-0 defeat to Hoffenheim in the league was followed up by a 5-0 hammering of Club Brugge in Europe.
They have largely been underperforming though with Infogol highlighting that they should be 3rd rather than their actual position in 7th while Leverkusen are the opposite - performing as a team in 11th rather than 4th.
A positive for them though is that they have been good away from home with 12 points gained for their six games only bettered by Bayern. Leipzig have been strong at home too - the third-best record in the Bundesliga - setting this up to be a great game.
Over 3.5 goals sitting at just above even money highlights how this is a game that should see goals and there is appeal in taking the 18/1 available with a couple of bookmakers for CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
Backing this bet would have won in four of his appearances so far (Hertha & Bochum in the league, Manchester City & Club Brugge in the Champions League) and that includes the appearance in midweek.
It's hardly a surprise when we take into account his attacking performances across the campaign so far. He's averaging 0.47 xG per 95 minutes in the Bundesliga - 0.69 per 95 in the Champions League.
He's a player in very good form and - while the 12/5 on a goal looks decent enough - a contest against a side averaging 1.54 expected goals against (xGA) per game opens up value in backing NKUNKU to get yet another brace.
Do you know anybody from Bielefeld? Probably not, but a look towards the bottom of the Bundesliga table will firmly prove their existence.
They sit 17th in the table but Infogol's model based on performance has them 18th. They go to the dominant Bayern Munich on Saturday - and even with their current injury issues - it should be as easy as the 1/16 price suggests.
The hosts are odds-on to score at least four goals whereas Bielefeld are even money to get one. Considering they have 41 from an xGF of 33.7, it should be the case of a big win for Bayern.
Even in a surprise defeat to Augsburg, Bayern posted exactly double the xG total of their opponents. Previous home games against Freiburg saw two goals from 3.09 xG, five goals v Benfica from 4.44 xG and four goals from 2.92 xG v Hoffenheim.
It's not just scoring goals but it's the creation to prove it's sustainable. They have a number of players absent - Covid issues are there - but there is still the quality within this squad to continue the home run.
What has surprised me is that there hasn't been a huge change in certain goalscorer prices even though they could only name four outfield subs for the trip to Kyiv on Tuesday.
At 9/2, we're taking CORENTIN TOLISSO TO SCORE ANYTIME. The midfielder has struggled for regular minutes but his attacking showings have been promising.
In 108 minutes of Champions League football this season, Tolisso has posted 0.36 xG with four shots and two on target. Across the Bundesliga in 2020/21, the midfielder averaged 0.30 xG per 95 minutes.
With goals expected, it's also worth playing the 9/2 on ALPHONSO DAVIES TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS. He has three assists in the league so far - with an expected assists (xA) figure of 3.15 - while also getting one in the Champions League. That translates to 0.34 xA per 95 minutes in the Bundesliga.
With Bayern so heavily fancied for victory, the value comes in backing TOLISSO and DAVIES to be involved in the goals.
Odds correct at 0945 BST (26/11/21)
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