Bundesliga tips, best bets and previews: Die Wölfe to bite back?
Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for Matchday 3 of the Bundesliga, with three selections across the weekend's action.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Wolfsburg to beat Schalke at 5/6 (General)
1.5pts Mainz to beat Augsburg at 11/10 (General)
1pt Marcus Thuram to score anytime in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hertha Berlin at 21/10 (bet365)
Wolfsburg v Schalke
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
Both sides have experienced disappointing starts to the season - with one point on each of their respective tallies after two games.
Wolfsburg were beaten away at Bayern last weekend - a result you'd expect - while Schalke needed a 93rd minute penalty to rescue a draw in their home encounter with Borussia Mönchengladbach.
A concern for Schalke is how well beaten they were by Köln on opening weekend. The 3-1 result saw the hosts take a huge total of 30 shots - ten of which were on target.
They also conceded two and 1.51 xG last time out. While they did get a draw, their non-penalty xG sitting at 0.81 highlights their problems in attack.
While the hosts here haven't been perfect either, it's worth taking the 5/6 on WOLFSBURG TO WIN.
The season isn't defined in the first three games, but Wolfsburg know that they need to be winning these contests if they are to be around the top-four mix towards the end of the campaign.
At near even money, the home side look overpriced.
Augsburg v Mainz
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
Augsburg's victory away at Bayer Leverkusen was a remarkable result, but delving into the numbers highlights how fortunate they were to leave with all three points.
Leverkusen posted 23 shots - ten of those on target - and a huge 3.26 xG. In response, Augsburg had 0.56, yet managed to find the net twice for the win.
That game scored a ridiculously low 37.51 on Infogol's Fairness Rating, which again further shows how the game did not match the result.
Mainz beat Bochum on opening weekend but were held by Union Berlin in a low event game last time out. Given Augsburg's defensive showings, they should be able to capitalise on Saturday.
There are odds-against prices almost everywhere on a MAINZ WIN here - the best of which is the 11/10 with multiple bookmakers.
Despite generous looking odds, the money is behind an away win. The Asian Handicap currently has Mainz as -0.5 favourites, that has drifted from -0.25 at opening.
Mainz struggled on the road last season but the win at Bochum shows it is something they have looked to address over the summer.
While previous season results count for little, those worried about the previous away showings can take comfort in the fact that Augsburg were firmly in the bottom-half for home points during the 21/22 Bundesliga campaign.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hertha Berlin
- 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Live Streaming
Hertha got their first point of the season in a home draw with Eintracht Frankfurt last time out, but a trip to a rejuvenated Borussia Mönchengladbach should see them leave empty-handed.
Daniel Farke's men have a win and a draw on their tally so far - although they were denied by a 93rd minute penalty in their contest against Schalke.
They were utterly dominant in their previous home game - that being a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim. They generated 1.92 xGF while restricting their opponents to a tiny 0.08 xGA.
Leading the line has been Marcus Thuram, and there is big appeal in taking the 21/10 price on THURAM TO SCORE ANYTIME.
In Mönchengladbach's three competitive outings this season, he has scored five goals (two in the league and three in the cup). A point of interest is that he has played the full 90 minutes in all three.
His two in the Bundesliga have come from nine shots - five of which were on target - and 1.07 xG. He is thriving under Farke at the club.
The hosts are a short 1/2 to secure victory on Friday night. Those odds highlight just how one-way this game is expected to be and THURAM can continue his fine form in front of goal.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 2pts Wolfsburg to beat Schalke at 5/6 (General)
- 1.5pts Mainz to beat Augsburg at 11/10 (General)
- 1pt Marcus Thuram to score anytime in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hertha Berlin at 21/10 (bet365)
Odds correct at 1030 BST (18/08/22)
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