Cricket betting tips and series preview: India face final frontier in South Africa
India begin a three-match Test series with South Africa in Centurion on Boxing Day – Richard Mann has one strong fancy in the series betting.
Cricket tips: South Africa v India Test series
4pts Rassie van der Dussen top South Africa series batsman at 4/1 (bet365, Unibet)
Just as England fans wake up on Boxing Day morning, groggy from too many Snowballs and tentatively checking the score in the third Ashes Test in Australia, they will at least be able to feast themselves on top-class Test cricket in South Africa as the Proteas kicks off a three-match series with India in Centurion.
For Virat Kohli’s India, this series has the feel of the final frontier having proven untouchable at home for a number of years now and registered significant series wins on the road, namely in Australia and then England last summer – for all that series is technically still alive following the abandonment of the Old Trafford Test due to a coronavirus outbreak.
Their ICC Test Championship final defeat to New Zealand aside – when they were patently undercooked – India have barely put a foot wrong as Kohli’s passion for Test cricket has rubbed off on a group of players that have similarly embraced the challenges of the sport’s longest format and, crucially, the testing of their skills in foreign conditions.
For South Africa, they are at a completely different stage of their journey having said goodbye to many of their senior players and blooded a number of promising new ones. Dean Elgar remains, however, and captained the side to 2-0 series win over West Indies earlier in the year.
South Africa is a tough place for any team to tour, particularly one from the subcontinent, with its quick, bouncy pitches ensuring batsmen have to be able to leave plenty of balls early in the face of considerable swing and seam movement, while playing well of the back foot is an absolute must.
As such, India are sure to keenly feel the absence of Rohit Sharma who showed a different side to his game when scoring so heavily in England just a few months ago. In his absence, KL Rahul will need to bat well at the top of the order, as will Kohli who hasn’t enjoyed the most productive time of late and is entitled to be smarting just a little having recently been sacked as ODI captain.
Of the two firms to have currently priced up the series batsman markets, Unibet look awfully short about Kohli at 5/4, with bet365 about right at 2/1 for the 33-year-old to finish the series as India’s leading runscorer.
Can Kohli recapture his best form?
In Kohli’s favour is that batting at number four should afford him some protection from the new ball and I’ve long been of the view that opening the batting in South Africa is the toughest job in cricket.
When India last toured South Africa in early 2018, Kohli was by far the most productive of the Indian batsmen – scoring 286 runs in the three-match series at an average of 47.66. Whether he is quite the same player now is the big question.
Still, he’ll be relieved to not have to worry about Anrich Nortje, following news that the South African paceman will miss the series through injury.
Kagiso Rabada will still be a big threat, of course, but batting always gets easier in South Africa once the new ball has been negotiated. That ball generally gets softer, the hot weather invariably burns away any green grass on the pitch, and the quick wickets and fast outfields certainly give batsmen value for their shots. Once set, runs tend to come quickly.
I won’t be betting Kohli at those prices, though the 10/1 Unibet offer about Rishabh Pant is sure to interest some, while Shreyas Iyer enjoyed a memorable debut series against New Zealand recently and is another option in the middle order.
My concern with Pant is that he still hasn’t found a workable method against the moving ball – and he looked bereft of answers in England – while I’m convinced Iyer could have serious issues against the short ball on these quick pitches if South Africa adopt such tactics.
At bigger prices, Hanuma Vihari is an interesting runner, given he enjoyed some success in Australia last winter and has played county cricket in England.
At this stage, it’s hard to know for sure whether Vihari will make the India starting XI, nor too Shardul Thakur, but if they do and are berthed in the middle order, don’t be afraid to have either on side in any top India innings batsman markets, or even to make a half-century at anything north of 3/1.
Make hay with middle order
I can’t emphasise enough just how much easier batting in the middle order generally is in South Africa to batting higher up, and I’ll be forming my betting strategies accordingly.
In 2018, Pakistan toured South Africa and it was striking how many times numbers six and seven top scored, or went close to top scoring, while it was from number five in the batting order that Kusal Perera struck that unforgettable, unbeaten 153 in Durban in 2019.
In 2019/2020, Ollie Pope averaged 88.66 for England from number six, while in the same series, Ben Stokes averaged 45.42 from five and Joe Root 45.28 from four.
Last winter, Sri Lanka returned and in the first Test in Centurion, recovered from 54-2 to post 396 as numbers four, five, six and seven in the batting order made scores of 85, 79, 49 and 66 respectively. True to form, batting in the middle order had proven much easier. It won't always be the case, but I do think it will play out that way more often than not.
Van the man for Proteas
And so, I’ll be backing South Africa number four RASSIE VAN DER DUSSEN to finish the series at the Proteas’ leading series runscorer.
I’m a huge fan of van der Dussen and he’s slowly but surely finding his way in Test cricket having already amassed some impressive numbers in white-ball cricket. A big hit at the recent T20 World Cup, van der Dussen now averages 65.56 in ODI’s.
A Test average of 38.12 is nothing to be ashamed of, but I believe he’s better than that, and scores of 48, 46 and 75* in that aforementioned series in the West Indies suggest that after 10 Tests, the penny is beginning to drop with him.
That’s not to suggest van der Dussen is simply a white-ball crasher – far from it – and even I have been surprised by the power he has displayed in the shorter formats over the last 12 months or so.
I think he is a very good Test match batsman in the making and the patience he displayed in the Caribbean, coupled with a low backlift and generally tight technique, should help him combat India’s strong pace attack. Crucially, I think number four in the order will be the perfect fit.
Finally, with Quinton de Kock likely to miss one, or possibly even two matches, for the birth of his first child, this looks the ideal time to strike a bet on van der Dussen who has been chalked up at 4/1 for top South Africa series batsman by Unibet and bet365. If you are able to get on with those firms, van der Dussen is must-bet material.
For those not in that position, the hope is that a few more firms price up the series markets in the next couple of days, while siding with van der Dussen on an innings-by-innings basis is another strategy worth considering, though preferably when de Kock is not playing.
Published at 1625 GMT on 23/12/21
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