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Cheltenham Festival analysis: Unpicking the Willie Mullins novice hurdling team


Donn McClean has the unenviable task of trying to predict which Willie Mullins-trained novice hurdler will go where at Cheltenham with just under two months to go until the Festival.

Dynamo shows he has the gears

There was lots of clarity about Dysart Dynamo’s victory in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday. He won by clear daylight for starters, and he confirmed the promise of his bumper runs and his maiden hurdle win, clearly stamping himself as one of the most exciting novice hurdlers in training. But the Moscow Flyer Hurdle is run over two miles, not two and a half, and therein lie the clouds.

Before Sunday, the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle looked like Dysart Dynamo’s most likely Cheltenham Festival target. His racecourse debut was over an extended two and a quarter miles on soft ground at Clonmel, and he is by Westerner, Gold Cup winner, dual Prix du Cadran winner, a triple Group 1 winner over two and a half miles, and sire of Stayers’ Hurdle winner Cole Harden and Troytown Chase winner Empire Of Dirt and Paddy Power Chase winner Castlebawn West and Ladbrokes Trophy winner Total Recall.

Also, Dysart Dynamo’s dam Dysart Dancer probably put up her best performance in staying on well to win a mares’ maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan over almost two and a half miles, the longest distance over which she ever raced.

If Willie Mullins’ horse had done what he did on Sunday over two and a half miles, say in the Lawlor’s of Naas Hurdle at, well, Naas two weeks earlier, the state of equilibrium would have been maintained, and you would have said, Ballymore Hurdle for sure. But the fact that he was able to show the pace that he showed on Sunday over the minimum trip opens up a whole new vista.

Dysart Dynamo under Paul Townend at Punchestown
Dysart Dynamo wins under Paul Townend at Punchestown

True, the race that he won on his seasonal return last month was a division of a Cork two-mile maiden hurdle, but that was his starting point into the season. Rathvinden won the same maiden hurdle a few years ago, and Rathvinden was obviously all stamina, National Hunt Chase winner, third in Tiger Roll’s second Grand National. Also, the bumper that Dysart Dynamo won on his racecourse debut at Clonmel over two and a quarter miles has been won in the past by De Rasher Counter and Conflated and Castlebawn West, all of whom are or were at their best over two and a half miles or further.

Even the bumper that he won at Punchestown last April. Four of the previous five winners - Sixshooter, Dead Right, Invitation Only and Yorkhill – were at their best over further than the minimum trip. Yorkhill actually won the Ballymore Hurdle the following season.

But none of them went on to win the Moscow Flyer Hurdle. Willie Mullins’ last four winners of the Moscow Flyer Hurdle were Vautour, Douvan, Min and Getabird, and all four ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing, respectively, first, first, second and 11th.

You have to believe what your eyes and the figures tell you, and Dysart Dynamo showed two-mile pace on Sunday. To put it into context, Eleanor Manning’s horse was over two seconds faster from the first flight to the second flight than both divisions of the maiden hurdle run over the same course and distance. He was also over two seconds faster than both from the second flight to the third.

He got to the second last flight around 30 lengths in front of Hiaou in the first division, and around 50 lengths in front of Supreme Jet, who was allowed an easy time of it up front in the second division. His advantage was eroded a little from there, but the damage was long-since done and, anyway, Paul Townend allowed Dysart Dynamo to coast home, whereas Hiaou had to battle all the way to the line to get back up and beat Goven.

Could Sir Gerhard be aimed at the Ballymore?

It was another intriguing piece in the moving-parts-puzzle that is the Irish novice hurdlers’ class of 2021/22. There’s the annual Willie Mullins conundrum too within the puzzle: if Dysart Dynamo runs in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle now instead of the Ballymore, does that mean that his stable companion Sir Gerhard will run in the Ballymore?

Sir Gerard at Leopardstown
Sir Gerard at Leopardstown

Of course, it is possible that Sir Gerhard will be better over two miles and five furlongs than he is over two, but he is very good over two. True, the Cheveley Park Stud horse won his point-to-point over three miles, but all his form on the track has been over the minimum trip. His three bumper wins, including his win in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year. His maiden hurdle win.

He showed lots of pace in winning that maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, pace that he had shown last March when he quickened off the home turn in the Champion Bumper, and just had enough in reserve to hold off the late challenge of his stable companion Kilcruit, the pair of them clear.

And he is by Jeremy, a Jersey Stakes winner, out of a mare whose sole win was gained over two miles over hurdles, and who is out of a half-sister to Zafeen, a Mill Reef Stakes winner, a St James’s Palace Stakes winner.

It’s a head-scratcher.

There is also El Fabiolo, so impressive in winning his maiden hurdle over two miles on heavy ground at Tramore on his hurdling bow on Al Boum Photo day, and Statuaire, who won the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle the last time we saw her. And that’s just some of the Willie Mullins team.

Picture perfect

Ginto wins at Naas
Ginto wins impressively at Naas

Cheltenham Festival targets for others are more straightforward, at least for now. Blazing Khal won the Grade 2 Bristol Novices’ Hurdle over three miles at Cheltenham’s December meeting, and the Albert Bartlett Hurdle is obviously the right target for Charles Byrnes’ horse.

Journey With Me looked very good in winning his maiden hurdle over two and a half miles at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, beating Minella Crooner and Kilcruit. In so doing, Henry de Bromhead’s horse was building on the momentum that he generated when he won the bumper that his trainer won with Bob Olinger, for Journey With Me’s owner Robcour, at Gowran Park last March. Bob Olinger danced in in the Ballymore Hurdle last year, and the Wednesday curtain-raiser looks like the obvious target too for his stable companion.

Ginto and Hollow Games finished first and third respectively in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s of Naas Hotel Hurdle over two and a half miles earlier this month. Both have the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett options – maybe the former for the former and the latter for the latter – while Eric Bloodaxe put up the best performance of his career last time at Limerick when he stepped up and won the Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles and seven furlongs.

That race has been won in the past by Martello Tower and Penhill and Fury Road, and the Albert Bartlett Hurdle looks like the right target for Joseph O’Brien’s horse at Cheltenham.

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A lot of those horses are set to take their respective chances in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle over two miles and six furlongs at the Dublin Racing Festival in two and a half weeks’ time. It is probable that the picture will be a little clearer after that.

Mighty Potter has raced exclusively over the minimum trip. He won his only bumper last season at Punchestown, and he won his maiden hurdle impressive at Down Royal on his debut this season, and he did well to keep on as well as he did to finish third in the Royal Bond Hurdle in a race in which he didn’t have an awful lot of luck in-running.

Gordon Elliott’s horse stepped forward from that last time in winning the Grade 1 Future Champions’ Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, staying on gallantly from the final flight to hold off his stable companion Three Stripe Life. A half-brother to French Dynamite and to Indiana Jones, it may be that the longer distance of the Ballymore Hurdle will play more to his strengths.

My Mate Mozzie was probably a little unlucky not to win the Royal Bond Hurdle. His awkward landing over the final flight may have cost him at least the short head by which he was beaten. Gavin Cromwell’s horse is another talented and progressive young hurdler, one for one in point-to-points and one for one in bumpers, and the fact that connections have given him an entry in the Champion Hurdle provides an indication of the regard in which he is held.

Some of these are on course for collision in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novices’ Hurdle over two miles at the Dublin Racing Festival in three weeks’ time. Expect improved clarity then.

www.donnmcclean.com


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