MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 56 preview and best bets
Will Dean's level-stakes profit for the year currently stands an impressive +25.1pts – don't miss his latest preview of this weekend's UFC action.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 56
2pts Alexander Volkov to win in rounds 4,5 or by Decision at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Johnny Munoz Jr to win at 11/10 (General)
0.5pts Johnny Munoz Jr to win by Submission at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
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Drago’s Redemption
ALEXANDER VOLKOV returns to the Octagon after a disappointing performance at UFC London in March. Drago was supposed to present a distinct striking challenge for UK prospect Tom Aspinall, but the Englishman made quick work of his opponent on the mat.
Volkov will hope to bounce back in a relatively favourable match-up against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, a hard hitting striker with a frightening highlight reel. While the Russian will clearly be at a significant power disadvantage, he is the much more well rounded martial artist and the more experienced combatant.
The Heavyweight division is filled with hard hitters that rely on power over technique, but Volkov has made a career out of being the exception to the rule. Using his long limbs, Drago remains evasive and outclasses his opponents with volume, often finding a stoppage victory of his own via accumulation in the later rounds.
Like most MMA fights that pit volume against power, the former is always a strong fancy to win, as long as they avoid the knockout blow. Across 44 professional bouts, Volkov has remarkably only been stopped via strikes on two occasions – most recently to Derrick Lewis, the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history.
The fight may start at a slow pace as both men cautiously attempt to figure the other out, but Volkov should eventually find his timing and start to pull away towards the latter half of the bout. Therefore, backing Volkov to win in ROUNDS 4,5 OR BY DECISION at 11/8 (Sky Bet Request-A-Bet) is the best plus money play available for Saturday’s main event.
Grappler’s Delight
JOHNNY MUNOZ JR’s preliminary showdown against Tony Gravely is a delightful display of UFC matchmaking, with both men possessing intriguing amounts of skill in different grappling disciplines.
Gravely has the more experience within the organisation, and has proven himself to be a difficult wrestler for many opponents to deal with. Averaging an insane 6.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, you can be certain that he will look to drag fights to the floor as often as he can.
Whilst this would usually be a formidable path to victory for Gravely, it will immediately play to the greatest strengths of Munoz, who is a former Brazilian Jiu Jitsu world champion and boasts seven submission victories in his career. From the moment Kid Kvenbo hits the mat, he begins working on any and every submission he can find, which will likely trump the stalling top control of Gravely and see him win the round.
Considering the paths to victory for both fighters, I am surprised to see Gravely as the favourite here. Munoz has seen a great deal of investment from bettors in the last two weeks, but the price on JOHNNY MUNOZ JR TO WIN at 11/10 has still not slimmed down enough.
Gravely’s submission defence has always been his greatest weakness in MMA, resulting in five of his seven losses. The wrestler has been forced to tap out by worse BJJ grapplers than Munoz, so a smaller wager of JOHHNY MUNOZ JR TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 11/4 is also worth a gamble.
Posted at 1050 BST on 02/06/22
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