Can Dubawi become champion sire for the first time in 2022?

Dubawi is undisputedly one of the best sires in the world.

Only those with a mare deemed worthy as well as £250,000 have access to him and with good reason. He is responsible for 152 Group winners, 50 Group/Grade 1 winners, countless sales toppers and now recognised as a sire of sires.

But why has he never been Champion sire? Of course there is only one every year, but surely a sire with such a magnitude of achievements should have a Championship to his name. The obvious answer is that Dubawi had the misfortune of competing with the might of Galileo throughout his career.

Four years his junior, Dubawi has never had a single crop race that did not come up against the multiple Champion sire. However, history books will tell us that in the first year Galileo renounced his crown, after eleven consecutive years and his twelfth title overall, he was succeeded by his son and heir apparent Frankel with Dubawi in third place.

As we reach the halfway point of 2022, Dubawi sits in pole position nearly £700,000 clear of reigning Champion and chief rival Frankel. Sitting in third is the late great former Champion Galileo himself, and whilst it’s a title earned via prize money, Galileo's connections can take pleasure in leading per number of stakes wins and stakes winners with fifteen wins from twelve winners.

Is this Dubawi’s year and if it is, what has changed?

Starting with the obvious, unfortunately we must accept the inevitable reality that nobody is exempt from mortality and Galileo was no exception, sadly passing last July. Top three year old fillies Tuesday (Oaks) and Magical Lagoon (Ribblesdale) say otherwise, but even Galileo is not immune to the typical decline in progeny in the twilight years of a sire’s career at stud.

It is a testament to his prowess that he can sire a Classic winner and still be considered below his once insurmountable best. That's not to say he isn't still a resounding force to be reckoned with, only that his seemingly unassailable grasp on the Champion Sire table had to come to an end at some stage.

Champion sire 2021 went the way of Galileo's indomitable son Frankel who has enjoyed a fruitful campaign so far this year in a bid to retain his title.

This Classic crop are the first to be bred off Frankel's increased fee of £175,000 in 2018 following a stellar first crop of three year olds headed by Champion Stakes winner Cracksman in 2017.

With two breath-taking Classic winners of 2022 under his belt in the shape of Irish 1000 Guineas winner Homeless Songs and Irish Derby winner Westover, it's somewhat surprising that even with G1 Fillies’ Mile winner Inspiral returning victorious in the Coronation Stakes, the top of the table eludes Frankel at this stage.

In fact, Frankel is less than £10,000 clear of Galileo, who sits in third and lest we forget, tends to find his stride when the autumn nears. Frankel has a few more shots to fire though, with four time Group 1 winner Alpinista yet to run in GB/Ireland this season.

Like Galileo, Frankel's two year olds are expected to blossom as the focus turns to the Classic crop of 2023. An equally well-bred crop conceived in 2019 (£175,000), the Frankel train was well and truly steam rolling by then and we can expect a battle to the wire in his bid to retain his title.

Over the road from Juddmonte at Dalham Hall, stands England’s most expensive stallion Dubawi who is undoubtedly fed up with living in Galileo's shadow (runner-up five times). As things stand, 2022 is his best chance yet at claiming the title and at this halfway stage, he has a comfortable but in no way unconquerable lead.

Is it simply by design that as Galileo falters, Dubawi will take over by default at the top? The record books show this is not the case given Frankel's 2021 title. However, 2022 started with a bang when Coreobus won the 2000 Guineas and with his stablemate Modern Games maintaining momentum in the first of the French Classics, the belief the 2022 is Dubawi's year has only been enhanced.

Prior to this season, Dubawi had just two English Classic winners to his name.

Make no mistake, two Classic winners are no mean feat, but for the sire considered the best in the country, standing for the highest fee and yet to sire a Derby or Oaks winner, it could have been considered a chink in his armour.

Draw comparison to his perpetual conqueror Galileo who has tasted Classic success on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile seven times (Churchill, Gleneagles, Frankel, Love, Hermosa, Minding, Winter) as well as five Epsom Derby and five Oaks winners.

If not the Classics, then why is Dubawi so popular? He isn’t a prolific sire of Royal Ascot two year olds. If pressed to nominate a top juvenile, Too Darn Hot comes to mind as well as ill-fated G1 National Stakes winner Quorto, neither were early favourites for the Coventry Stakes.

What he is synonymous with though, and does without exception above all else, is sire progressive and hardy progeny who consistently produce top drawer efforts around the globe.

In a world so obsessed with precocity, it’s remarkable this trait has stood him in such good stead, thanks in no small part to his biggest supporters Godolphin and Charlie Appleby.

His other fatal weapon is his progeny’s remarkable diversity when it comes to distance. Pigeonhole a Dubawi at your peril.

The inspired decision by Appleby to drop 2000 Guineas fourth Naval Crown back to sprint trips was vindicated in tremendous style in this year’s G1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes.

In fact favoured stablemate and runner up, Champion Sprint winner Creative Force was yet another example of Charlie Appleby's prowess with Dubawi’s progeny.

Creative Force won the 2021 G3 Jersey Stakes over 7f with Naval Crown in second. With both sons of Dubawi furrowing very different paths back to Royal Ascot twelve months later, it appears as though Appleby has cracked the code.

Then there’s the international element to consider. At the beginning of the 2022 season, 32% of Dubawi’s Group 1 winners had won in GB/IRE.

That means 68% achieved their biggest success and thus it follows, their most valuable, outside the jurisdiction of the Champion sire table. This is compared to 50% domestic Group 1 winners for Frankel at this early stage, whereas a staggering 68% of Galileo’s Group 1 winners achieved the feat in GB/Ireland.

There are multiple external factors at play but regardless of the cause, it goes some way to explaining Dubawi's perils. Take Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Modern Games for example.

A G1 winning two year old for Appleby who followed up with French Classic success in this year’s Poule d’Essai des Poulains, he is one of Dubawi’s shining stars of 2021/22.

With lifetime earnings of £866,810 so far, just £55,073 earned in GB/Ireland has contributed to Dubawi’s Champion sire campaign between across two seasons.

Whilst it is admirable to see so many of Dubawi’s progeny consistently mopping up lucrative international prizes, unfortunately the prize money does not count and naturally has a considerable impact on Dubawi's overall prize money accrued. Thus, if he manages to maintain his lead when the curtains close on the 2022 season, it will count as a truly remarkable achievement.

Take a pull, we're only halfway there and with some luck there are some titanic battles on the racecourse ahead. The Young Pretender Frankel and his own father Galileo taken on once again by esteemed rival Dubawi.

Let's not forget Sea The Stars, sire of Baaeed, Timeform’s highest rated older horse in Europe, this is a battle that might just go down to the wire.

The bookies installed Dubawi as the early favourite back in March and favourite backers might be sitting pretty for now. Down but not out, Galileo and his son are ready to pounce.

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