Over the last three years, Wimbledon has turned into the Roger and Rafa show.
The drama, which resulted in three successive finals between the pair, reached a scintillating conclusion in last year's title decider, Nadal halting Federer's bid for a sixth crown with a thrilling five-set victory.
Nadal's troublesome knees have denied us another potential classic and ensured the final will be contested by someone from outside the world's top two for the first time since Andy Roddick appeared in 2005.
The bookies expect that player to be Andy Murray, with a Murray-Federer final now rated just a 5/4 shot.
While there seems little value in backing the outcome at that price, you can certainly understand why the layers are showing such caution.
This column has banged on all season about the strength of the so-called 'Big Four' and once again you have to expect the winner to come from that quartet, reduced to a trio this time by Nadal's injury.
Novak Djokovic is the one we've yet to mention, but he's been in and out this season.
The Serb seemed to have recovered from a poor start to the season but just when he looked set to produce another good Grand Slam run he lost in round three of the French Open.
He's also had just the one good run at Wimbledon before (reaching the semis in 2007), while this year's draw has not been kind - if the event goes to seeding he will have to beat both Federer and Murray to win.
If you do fancy Murray and Federer to be slugging it out on July 5 - and given both men look perfectly at home on the grass it's easy to see that scenario unfolding - then surely backing Murray now offers the best value in what is a pretty uninspiring outright market.
At time of writing, Murray is an 11/4 shot; Federer odds-on across the board.
If the British-Swiss final does come off then it's difficult to imagine such a wide price discrepancy for the title decider.
OK, Federer knows how to win at this level - he's a five-time winer at the All England Club - but that fact is he's lost four times in a row against Murray, who really has troubled him with his superb returning and excellent retrieving skills.
The other factor that will push Murray's price lower is the weight of British money - the layers will be running scared of him if he becomes the first Briton in 71 years to reach the men's singles final in SW19.
Other arguments in favour of Murray at that this stage include preparation.
Murray polished his game by winning the Queen's Club warm-up event, although he didn't really have to beat anyone of note to lift the trophy.
Federer, on the other hand, has not played since winning the French Open, opting to skip his usual tune-up at Halle as he basked in the glory of completing the career Grand Slam.
That won't unduly worry his fans - Federer won Wimbledon in 2007 without any match practice on grass. Of more concern would be his general form.
This may be a strange thing to say about a player who has just made history, but most people are agreed the Fed Express cannot dominate as much as he once did.
At the French Open he showed his vulnerability - he could easily have lost matches in Paris to Jose Acasuso, Tommy Haas and Juan Martin Del Potro.
It would be much tougher for him to dig himself out of a hole against the likes of Djokovic and Murray, or even Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, both of whom look tricky potential opponents.
We may be finding pretty minor faults, but it's just an illustration of our theory that Murray is better value if you want to back someone outright.
Actually it may be better to try your luck in some of the other markets, where there appears to be more value.
The quarter markets are ones we've looked to in the past and this year Marin Cilic looks a decent bet at big odds.
With his big serve, Cilic loves the faster surfaces - he won indoors in Zagreb earlier this season without dropping a set - and some of you may remember him pushing Murray to a fifth set in the Davis Cup here at Wimbledon in 2007.
Last year he made the last 16 in SW19 and having notched up plenty of match wins so far in 2009 looks primed for a good run once more.
Djokovic is the main threat in this quarter but as already suggested, we not sure what to expect from him these days and last year he lost in the second round here.
We wouldn't want to be backing him at a best price of just 6/5.
Instead Cilic looks likely to give you a run for your money at 12/1.
With Nadal gone, the first quarter lacks a 'Big Four' member and the bookies can't decide who to make their favourite to come through it.
Del Potro and Roddick are vying for favouritism - the latter's price varies from 11/10 to 7/4.
The latter quote is tempting given two-time runner-up Roddick did not lose a service game during the recent Queen's tournament. However, he also picked up an ankle injury there and while he insists he will be fine, it's never great to be backing a player with such a doubt surrounding them.
Given we've also had our fingers burnt backing Roddick in this market in the past two years, we'll swerve on this occasion.
Finally it would be wrong not to say more about the aforementioned Tsonga in this preview as he's the dark horse we liked the look of most prior to the draw.
The Frenchman's big serve and crushing forehand are two big weapons on this surface and he made the last 16 here on his only previous visit (in 2007).
Sadly he's been placed in Federer's quarter (he's 9/1 to win it), while 33/1 looks short enough in the outright market.
However, if there's one player outside the big guns who is capable of beating anyone in the draw it's Tsonga, so don't say we didn't warn you.
The action gets under way at 1200 BST on Monday and is being televised live in the UK on the BBC.
Preview posted at 1530BST on 20/06/2009.
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