This is a mis-match for a Challenge Cup final. St Helens have won 20 straight games whereas Hull won their first game in four last weekend.
If you look in every position, St Helens are at least one or two points better per player. Sean Long is the best half-back in the English game, he won't be fazed and he'll control the game.
Then they've got the two best hookers in Super League in Keiron Cunningham and James Roby, and then on top of that they've got the best stand-off in Leon Pryce and the best full-back in Paul Wellens.
All across the park they've got quality and they are going to be too strong for Hull, who have been too inconsistent. A win against Harlequins last week hardly signals an upset.
St Helens are specials to win the game and cover the 16 point start. The wide open spaces at Wembley will suit their game, Hull will use up a lot of nervous energy in the early stages and that will also suit St Helens later on.
In the individual markets, Sean Long has a fantastic chance of winning the Lance Todd Trophy again. He will touch the ball more than anyone on the field, he will be involved in any tries, breaks and he will be unfazed by the whole occassion.
It might also be worth having a saver on Jon Wilkin. He's a really talented back-rower who takes advantage of a lot of Long's work. He has some skills and as a Hull KR boy playing against their city rivals he will be fired up more than most.
In the anytime scorer market Ade Gardner is nailed-on to collect. They kick to him, Matt Gidley sets him up very well, and he's in the habit of scoring tries now. I believe he will do so again.
Francis Meli is the sort of player who could power over early on, and he is worth a look in the first tryscorer market.
The second half will be the highest scoring half, in my opinion. It can be fairly close in the first 40 minutes, like it was last year, and the year before, but St Helens can power away in the second 40 as Hull tire.
Another bet punters might want to consider is the last scoring play. I Like the look of a St Helens field goal, as Long isn't afraid to slot one over late on just to ensure field position, no matter how many points they are in front of Hull.
Finally, I like a bet in the total points market. People will presume that over 48.5 points will be the way to go if they fancy St Helens to cover the start - but I hold an alternative view.
I just can't see how Hull are going to contribute here. Even if St Helens score 30 points I think Hull are going to struggle to score over 18.
I'm going to go under 48.5 points, because I think all the points are going to come from St Helens.
NRL
The New Zealand Warriors will be saying farewell to Ruben Wiki and Logan Swann in their last home game of the year, and they look a decent bet to cover the eight points against Penrith this weekend. The Panthers were worse than ordinary last week and there is talk of disharmony in their camp. There's talk of discontent, and I believe the Warriors will capitalise.
Cronulla have been the subject of a gamble in Australia and I suggest you get on. Robbie Farah, Brett Hodgson and Keith Galloway are out injured for the Wests Tigers, who have been playing very poorly recently. Cronulla are a genuine top four club and they can exploit the weaknesses in the Tigers here. They are the bet of the round and a must at -4 on the handicap. They can win and cover with ease.
In the Monday night game, Melbourne are in hot form at the moment and look a decent better to cover 10 points against Newcastle. The Knights miss Danny Buderus, who is Leeds-bound next season, as he is out for the rest of the campaign. Melbourne will be too good and too strong.
I'd just like to finish by mentioning my team, the North Queensland Cowboys. It's a game we must win and the team has been training extra hard all week. Jonathan Thurston will be playing for the first time in two weeks, and I just think the boys will be primed to beat a red-hot Raiders team and get off the bottom of the table this weekend.
Preview posted at 1300BST on 28/08/2008.
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