Leeds v St Helens (+6)
These two sides have met in the last three Grand Finals and in recent times the Rhinos have had the edge over their rivals, mainly on the back of a better kicking game and dominant forward pack.
St Helens have never been able to get on the front foot and allow Sean Long to dictate matters. The respective kicking games will again be the key on Saturday and Leeds are very strong in this department with Danny McGuire, Rob Burrow and Kevin Sinfield.
You would expect some of the key men from Saints to really lift at Old Trafford but their form isn't red-hot and tries have been a struggle of late.
They have lacked the usual flair and cohesion. You'd like to be coming into a Grand Final on the back of a game where you've run in some tries and gained some confidence and St Helens aren't doing that.
On top of that they don't have a forward like an Ali Lauitiiti who can create chances with good offloads. They also lack the penetration of say a Brent Webb in the three-quarters.
Long has been dominating the pre-game headlines and is under a lot of pressure but he was excellent against Wigan last week.
You can never write St Helens off but in a low-scoring game I expect Leeds to win and cover. They have the tougher forward pack and have had the edge over Saints in recent key games.
For man-of-the-match in a tight game you are looking for someone who has opened up the game with a moment of magic, touches of flair. Danny McGuire comes into that category and is worth a wager.
As I expect Leeds to win I'm also going to put up Ali Lauitiiti who has the X factor. He causes St Helens problems whenever he faces them and can be the difference in a tight game.
For first try scorer I like Lee Smith who is playing his final game before switching codes. He has speed and is a great support player. He has a tremendous big-game pedigree too.
Preview posted at 1145BST on 08/10/2009
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