Muthmir can cut a dash in Cup
Ian Ogg analyses the last ten renewals of Saturday's 32Red Stewards' Cup at Goodwood and picks out the key statistics.
For such a competitive sprint handicap on a downhill track, the betting has proved surprisingly adept at pinpointing the winner with only two returned at longer 14/1 with three market leaders taking the honours.
Very few runners can be ruled out on the grounds of age this year but a line can be put through a decent number for not having won in a field of 14 or larger.
Muthmir beat 18 rivals when impressively winning the Sky Bet Dash (watch the video replay here), a race Hoof It landed before following up here under a penalty in 2011 (one of two scorers under the 'extra'), and his trainer, William Haggas, has won two of the last six renewals so there is plenty to recommend the rising star.
His draw in two may not be as offputting as the statistics suggest with Hawkeyethenoo winning from box four two years ago while Hoof It also ended up on that side despite being drawn in 18 and a number of others have gone close on the far side.
All of the winners, not surprisingly, had seen relatively recent action prior to winning with the longest absentee being Gift Horse who hadn't been sighted since winning at the start of June.
The highly-regarded Intrinsic has been off since winning over C&D at the end of May and the break would be a minor quibble with regards to his profile.
He missed the Wokingham, a race which seven winners contested and that form is reasonably well-represented with the likes of Alben Star, Seeking Magic and Ninjago.
Clive Cox's runner has an excellent record on downhill tracks and won the consolation race for this prize 12 months ago but his two runs at Ascot haven't come up to that level. Adam Kirby is back on board for the first time this season and the six-year-old looks to have a live chance.
Ninjago has never won a handicap but has won a 13-runner Listed race and did finish fifth in last year's renewal when just 8/1, a price he was also returned at in the Wokingham.
Richard Hughes jumps ship but Ryan Moore is not a bad replacement and, presumably, could have ridden the likes of Ashpan Sam whom he partnered to finish second to Intrinsic in May and when winning at Epsom in June.
Ninjago needs luck in running given his usual style of racing but Moore should have plenty of options from a draw in 15 and is another to note at decent odds but as stated at the top, most recent winners have been towards the fore of the betting and Muthmir gets the nod.
32Red Cup statistics
- Winners have been aged four (5), five (3) and six (2).
- Winners have carried between 8-9 and 10-0 with eight between 8-9 and 9-7.
- Winners have been rated between 91 & 111 with nine between 91 and 104.
- Nine winners have been drawn between 10 and 30, the exception was drawn in 4.
- Six winners had won during the current season.
- Nine winners had raced between 3 & 5 times in the current season.
- All winners have won over six furlongs.
- Nine winners had won a handicap.
- Nine winners had won in a field of 14 runners or more.
- Three winners had track form.
- Five winners finished first or second on their previous start.
- Three favourites have won with a further four placed (including joints).
- Eight winners have been priced between 9/2 and 14/1 (exceptions 20s & 40s).