Value Bet: Magic trick

  • By: Ben Linfoot
  • Last Updated: August 1 2014, 8:57 BST

Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from the fourth day of Glorious Goodwood and has two picks for the Betfred Mile.

Magic City (left) looks to have a lot in his favour in the Betfred Mile
Magic City (left) looks to have a lot in his favour in the Betfred Mile

Recomended Bets:

1pt win Magic City in 3.05 Goodwood - plenty in his favour around a course he handles well.

1pt e.w Red Avenger in 3.05 Goodwood - decent pull at the weights and can bounce back to form.

1pt win Take Cover in 3.40 Goodwood - speedy type and could take some pegging back in an open race.

It took a two-year-old out of the top drawer to get Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes off the mark for the week on Thursday, and now normal service has been resumed their MAGIC CITY looks worth backing in the hugely competitive Betfred Mile.

The five-year-old has a brilliant record around Goodwood, winning three times, and is on a competitive mark at present after taking some time to find his form this campaign.

Rated 102 at best, he races from 5lb lower on Friday and a mark of 97 is the same rating he won off in his last victory, which was here at Goodwood last August.

Good or faster ground brings out the best in him, while he loves a big-field handicap around Goodwood too - all three of his wins at the track have come in races with 14 runners or more.

His run at Salisbury at the end of June may have seen him go back up 4lb in the handicap but it was crucial on two counts; one) that he’s back in form after a fine second and two) that he’s equipped with the right tools to stay a mile.

A single-figure draw in eight is a bonus as well and the general 14/1 is worth taking.

I also want RED AVENGER on side in the same contest at 25/1.

Ed Dunlop hasn’t had much luck at Goodwood this week but hopefully that can change with this horse who ran with great credit on his sole start at the track this time last year.

That dead-heat second to Broughton came from just 1lb lower than he races off on Friday so we know he can be competitive off this mark at the track and his third at Epsom three starts ago is good recent form.

I thought he’d won the Investec Mile on Oaks day on the inside before Abseil came with his late charge and though Velox was badly hampered as the Sir Micahel Stoute-trained horse drifted left, Red Avenger would probably have beaten him (Velox) anyway.

Velox has won since, but Red Avenger gets a 10lb pull at the weights with that rival here despite finishing in front of him at Epsom and yet he’s almost four times the price of the Luca Cumani-trained favourite.

That Epsom run was also further evidence that a strongly-run mile on the turn is ideal and I fancy him to bounce back from a couple of below-par efforts recently from a good, low draw with first-time blinkers applied.

Finally, in the Betfred King George Stakes, I think TAKE COVER might take some catching at 10/1.

He was second of 24 in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race last year when just getting caught on the line over six furlongs at a huge price.

The seven-year-old has improved 20lb since then and proved his well-being when making all to win a Listed race at York last time.

A fast five furlongs looks absolutely ideal for him and at double-figure prices he’s worth backing in an open-looking Group Two.

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +274.31pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).