Mal Boyle's Placepot Picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: July 6 2015, 9:32 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his selections ahead of Monday evening's meeting at Windsor.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis.

He'll assess the next day's leading meeting the previous afternoon/evening before posting selections the following morning, usually by 1000 BST.

WINDSOR - JULY 6

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £88.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Windsor Selections

Race 1 (5.55pm): 11 (Thewestwalian), 3 (Hardy Black) & 4 (Classic Pursuit)
Race 2 (6.25pm): 10 (Oh This Is Us), 11 (Ornate) & 1 (Adventure Zone)
Race 3 (6.55pm): 9 (Nouveau Foret) & 3 (Helmsman)
Race 4 (7.25pm): 5 (Flying Bear), 6, (Royal Brave) & 1 (Burning Thread)
Race 5 (7.55pm): 3 (Pathway To Honour) & 5 (Purple Rock)
Race 6 (8.25pm): 6 (Sealife), 3 (Lemoncetta) & 7 (Spirited Acclaim)

5.55 All seven winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more to date though on this occasion, just one horse can be ruled out of the equation. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that four-year-olds are 2/1 to record their sixth win in this eighth renewal before the form book is taken into consideration. The pick of the quintet of vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be HARDY BLACK, LITTLE BIG MAN and CLASSIC PURSUIT. Peter Hiatt's recent Hamilton winner THEWESTWALIAN is well enough drawn in trap four to figure prominently, possibly beating the four-year-olds on this this occasion.

'Favourite factor': Three of the seven favourites (stats include two winners at 7/2 & 3/1) have secured toteplacepot positions to date. The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 15/2 (last year).

6.25 A juvenile race which is famous for the fact that Richard Hannon has not trained a winner of the contest to date! The fact that I offer such words is testament to the magnificent 'Hannon' two-year-old record at Windsor and to be entirely fair to the team as was the case two years ago, the stable has not always been represented in the contested. OH THIS IS US (well berthed in trap two) was well touted before the start of the season by the trainer, despite the fact that he had the habit of holding his head a little high in his work as a young horse. Perhaps that is why is has taken this long to get the Acclamation raider to the races, travelling here with stable companion ADVENTURE ZONE who has not been so lucky with the draw (15/16). If Richard's stable is to be denied again, potential spoilers include ORNATE and COVER CHARGE (who was withdrawn the other day).

'Favourite factor': Four of the last 11 favourites have won, whilst seven of the last 11 market leaders have finished in the frame. 12 of the last 13 winners scored at 8/1 or less, with seven of those gold medallists being sent off at a top price of 9/2.

6.55 Four of Ed Walker's last 10 runners have won and the terms and conditions of this claiming event suit Ed's Myboycharlie filly NOUVEAU FORET who is blinkered for the firm time. A winner over seven furlongs on Kempton's all weather surface as a juvenile, it's little wonder that Ed has reached for the 'blinds' for his raider having offered three disappointing efforts this term. That said, this contest will take little winning and I am taking the aid to galvanise NOUVEAU FORET back to winning form. HELMSMAN and JUST BECAUSE should also figure prominently.

'Favourite factor': The two market leaders to date have secured gold and silver medals whilst snaring toteplacepot positions.

7.25 Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 15 of the 17 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all six winners. This stat only eliminates one runner on this occasion and even then, only via jockey's claim. Four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests and the brief trend is expected to be improved further still via this year's two vintage representatives, namely FLYING BEAR and ROYAL BRAVE. Storm Lightning's five victories have been spaced well apart until now, whereby BURNING THREAD and GOLD FLASH are preferred as potential dangers to the four-year-olds.

'Favourite factor': Three of the six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at 11/4 & 11/10.

7.55 Three-year-olds tend to run well against their elders in these mixed vintage handicap events, as has been the case via just 33% of the runners to date (2/2 successes). PATHWAY TO HONOUR would be expected to win the race without too much fuss if transferring his A/W form to turf though should that not be the case, PURPLE ROCK and (possibly) UNISON could take advantage of the scenario.

'Favourite factor': The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals whilst snaring toteplacepot positions.

8.25 John Gosden has had well fancied horses beaten in this event in each of the last two years and the way that LEMONCETTA petered out tamely at Salisbury 'the last day hardly' inspires confidence. Indeed, William Haggas should be congratulated for finding what appears to be an easy race for his newcomer SEALIFE to contest, the Sea The Stars filly being related to a previous winner. SPIRITED ACCLAIM is another to consider over your favourite late night tipple/early morning beverage.

'Favourite factor': Six of the 10 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions with five of the last seven market leaders having won this toteplacepot finale contest. The other two winner during the period scored at just 5/2 & 3/1.

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday

5--Tony Carroll
4--John Best
3--David Elsworth
3--Richard Hannon
3--Charlie Hills
2--Clive Cox
2--David Evans
2--William Haggas
2--Ron Harris
2--Sylvester Kirk
2--George Margarson
2--Brendan Powell
2--Ed Walker
1--Charlie Appleby
1--Andrew Balding
1--Ralph Beckett
1--John Berry
1--John Bridger
1--William Brisbourne
1--Lee Carter
1--Roger Charlton
1--Paul Cole
1--Peter Crate
1--Sean Curran
1--Luke Dace
1--Tom Dascombe
1--David Dennis
1--Des Donovan
1--Kevin Frost
1--Jeremy Gask
1--Ed de Giles
1--John Gosden
1--Peter Hiatt
1--Roger Ingram
1--William Knight
1--Clifford Lines
1--Peter Makin
1--Martyn Meade
1--Brian Meehan
1--Rod Millman
1--Gary Moore
1--Stan Moore
1--William Muir
1--Jonjo O'Neill
1--David Pipe
1--Ralph J Smith
1--Roger Teal
1--Marcus Tregoning
1--Joseph Tuite
1--Ed Vaughan
1--Tim Vaughan
1--Chris Wall
1--Steve Woodman

74 declared runners

2015 average toteplacepot returns thus far (735 meetings):
Two meetings with no favourites in the frame: £774.85 (2)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,788.92 (19)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £889.48 (70)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £536.75 (200)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £312.39 (240)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £72.38 (154)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £21.08 (49)
One meeting was abandoned after two races - left out of these calculations

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Flat venues:
Total Flat meetings (£409.05--240 meetings)
Ascot (£810.52--8 meetings)
Ayr (£1,119.30--5 meetings)
Bath (£107.14--9 meetings)
Beverley (£564.45--10 meetings)
Brighton (£440.87--10 meetings)
Carlisle (£396.78--5 meetings)
Catterick (£661.91--6 meetings)
Chepstow (£96.76--5 meetings)
Chester (£223.81--6 meetings)
Doncaster (£389.48--12 meetings)
Epsom (£1,156.30--4 meeting)
Goodwood (£98.30--8 meetings)
Hamilton (£507.26--8 meetings)
Haydock (£552.42--12 meetings)
Leicester (£338.75--10 meetings)
Lingfield (£470.24--5 meetings)
Musselburgh (£677.37--8 meetings)
Newbury (£520.46--7 meetings)
Newcastle (£552.40--9 meetings)
Newmarket (July)--£64.30--5 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£136.75--9 meetings)
Nottingham (£387.65--13 meetings)
Pontefract (£744.58--7 meetings)
Redcar (£137.70--8 meetings)
Ripon (£199.74--8 meetings)
Salisbury (£94.21--6 meetings)
Sandown (£212.57--7 meetings)
Thirsk (£168.31--8 meetings)
Wetherby (£26.65--2 meetings)
Windsor (£80.55--14 meetings)
York (£1,349.20--6 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£319.83--177 meetings)
Chelmsford (£368.67--28 meetings)
Kempton (£223.40--27 meetings)
Lingfield (£468.80--41 meetings)
Southwell (£431.65--26 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£172.65--53 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£398.30--313 meetings)
Aintree (£331.40--5 meetings)
Ascot (£264.97--3 meetings)
Ayr (£413.90--9 meetings)
Bangor (£1,675.49--7 meetings)
Carlisle (£122.35--6 meetings)
Cartmel (£470.08--4 meetings)
Catterick (£95.21--6 meetings)
Cheltenham (£257.30--9 meetings)
Chepstow (£318.67--9 meetings)
Doncaster (£161.87--6 meetings)
Exeter (£419.99--10 meetings)
Fakenham (£215.32--9 meetings)
Ffos Las (£132.92--10 meetings)
Fontwell (£245.19--10 meetings)
Haydock (£469.17--4 meetings)
Hexham (£181.43--9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£113.25--8 meetings)
Kelso (£113.90--7 meetings)
Kempton (£70.29--8 meetings)
Leicester (£82.10--5 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65--2 meetings)
Ludlow (£131.99--9 meetings)
Market Rasen (£213.80--10 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40--6 meetings)
Newbury (£153.73--7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£4,021.40--9 meetings)
Newcastle (£201.99--7 meetings)
Perth (£77.21--8 meetings)
Plumpton (£404.27--10 meetings)
Sandown (£321.09--6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£101.72--10 meetings)
Southwell (£601.38--10 meetings)
Stratford (£428.18--9 meetings)
Taunton (£248.98--12 meetings)
Towcester (£80.08--7 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£668.73--11 meetings)
Warwick (£1,135.76--10 meetings)
Wetherby (£666.03--8 meetings)
Wincanton (£575.61--10 meetings)
Worcester (£87.69--8 meetings)

Mixed Turf & A/W Flat meeting:
Lingfield (£53.40--4 meetings)

Mixed NH & Flat meeting:
Haydock (£1551.00--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2015 stands at £397.96 (735 meetings) up to and including Saturday July 4