Mal Boyle's Placepot picks
Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis of Newbury's Betfair Hurdle card on Saturday.
NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £668.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
1.20 Nicky Henderson (ARGANTE) and Paul Nicholls (EMERGING TALENT) have both won this event on two occasions within the last six years, whereby their representatives obviously demand plenty of respect. Alan King has his team in tremendous form right now whereby HEREWEGO HEREWEGO cannot be left out of the overnight mix. Nicky's runners are not performing at their very best at the time of writing whereby Argante might be left out of the Placepot scenario come sun up accordingly.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 12 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won four of the last six contests Eight of the last 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Newbury record of course winners in the opening contest:No qualifiers
1.50 Seven-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests though that said, six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals. MILLANISI BOY and ZEROSHADES OF GREY will hopefully lead the seven-year-olds home, whilst KELTUS picks himself to a fashion, being the lone six-year-old representatives on this occasion. Paul Nicholls seems to have turned his personal corner towards the Cheltenham Festival with plenty of his horses returning to form this week.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last 17 years. 11 of the 17 favourites have reached the frame.
Newbury record of course winners in the second race: 1/3 - Gevrey Chambertin
2.25 Paul Nicholls has won eight of the 14 renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts. Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. Ten-year-old ROCKY CREEK is the stable representative on this occasion. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst eight-year-old have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008. Only six-year-old SPLASH OF GINGE appears via the two vintages this time around, though it might be BALLYNAGOUR that offers the biggest threat to ROCKY CREEK at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.
Newbury record of course winners in the third event on the card: 1/2 - Splash Of Ginge
3.00 Paul Nicholls has won six of the last 12 renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is his Champion Chaser DODGING BULLETS who proved so many people wrong last year, including yours truly! Paul's eight-year-old looks to have this race at his mercy. Nicky Henderson might have been double handed but for L'Ami Serge seemingly heading for Warwick on Saturday, leaving CAPTAIN CONAN to represent the stable. Karry Lee can do little wrong it seems but even she might not be able to galvanise Top Gamble into winning this contest.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last 16 renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. 14 of the 17 market leaders reached the frame.
Newbury record of course winners in the fourth race: 1/2 - Top Gamble (C&D winner)
1/1 - L'Ami Serge
3.35 Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only bet of the day) two years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for the last two years! I followed that up by naming last year's 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later. 43 of the last 52 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 11 of the last 13 winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last 16 gold medallists, though Nicky is without a runner this time around. Gary Moore has snared three of the last eight renewals (not represented on this occasion), whilst five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the last eight contests. Taking all the facts and stats into consideration, my short list comprises of STERNRUBIN, BLAZER, MONTBAZON and BABY KING.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst 10 of the last 17 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.
Newbury record of course winners in the fifth event: 1/1 - Sternrubin (C&D winner)
1/3 - Montbazon (C&D winner)
1/1 - Modus (C&D winner)
1/1 - Zarib (C&D winner)
4.10 Paul Nicholls has won four of the last seven contests and yet Paul is only conspicuous by his absence this time around. Just three runners have been declared and there might not be much between the trio over the last few fences. If we come through the previous race on the card, I find it too much to choose the winner of this event, whereby ACTIVIAL, course winner OUT SAM and MILANDBAR will all be included in the Placepot mix, assuring us of the dividend!
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via nine renewals during the last 12 years. Seven of the 10 jollies have finished in the frame, all winners of their respective events.
Newbury record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale: 1/1 - Out Sam
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday
6 - Willie Mullins
5 - Paul Nicholls
4 - Nicky Henderson
4 - Philip Hobbs
4 - Jonjo O'Neill
4 - David Pipe
4 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
2 - Alan King
2 - Neil King
2 - Dan Skelton
2 - Nick Williams
1 - Brian Barr
1 - John Best
1 - David Bridgwater
1 - Rebecca Curtis
1 - Brian Ellison
1 - Kevin Frost
1 - Harry Fry
1 - Tom George
1 - Warren Greatrex
1 - Paul Henderson
1 - Richard Hughes
1 - Emma Lavelle
1 - Kerry Lee
1 - Sophie Leech
1 - Noel Meade
1 - Tom Symonds
1 - Harry Whittington
1 - Evan Williams
1 - Venetia Williams
1 - Richard Woollacott
59 declared runners
2016 average toteplacepot returns thus far (122 meetings):
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £612.64 (6 occasions)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,229.48 (6 occasions)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £648.90 (34 occasions)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £160.67 (40 occasions)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £69.30 (30 occasions)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £16.22 (6 occasions)
Total A/W meetings (£262.32 - 62 meetings - Average Placepot dividends)
Chelmsford (£126.53 - 13 meetings)
Kempton (£449.17 - 9 meetings)
Lingfield (£90.83 - 15 meetings)
Southwell (£467.53 - 13 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£252.76 - 12 meetings)
National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£425.90 - 60 meetings - Average Placepot dividends)
Ascot (£69.10 - 1 meeting)
Ayr (£135.30 - 2 meetings)
Carlisle (£670.40 - 1 meeting)
Catterick (£71.62 - 4 meetings)
Cheltenham (£522.90 - 2 meetings)
Chepstow (£991.25 - 2 meetings)
Doncaster (£181.75 - 4 meetings)
Exeter (£36.80 - 1 meeting)
Fakenham (£83.07 - 3 meetings)
Haydock (£22.40 - 1 meeting)
Huntingdon (£97.35 - 4 meetings)
Kempton (£161.25 - 2 meetings)
Leicester (£129.00 - 2 meetings)
Ludlow (£203.67 - 3 meetings)
Market Rasen (£883.15 - 2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£592.22 - 5 meetings)
Newcastle (£232.90 - 1 meeting)
Plumpton (£1,473.37 - 3 meetings)
Sandown (£593.55 - 2 meetings)
Sedgefield (£86.90 - 1 meeting)
Taunton (£62.37 - 3 meetings)
Towcester (£112.75 - 2 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£5,524.10 - 1 meeting)
Warwick (£267.85 - 2 meetings)
Wetherby (£399.97 - 3 meetings)
Wincanton (£124.30 - 2 meetings)
The average toteplacepot dividend in 2016 stands at £341.90 (122 meetings) up to and including Thursday February 11