Mal Boyle's Placepot selections

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: November 27 2014, 18:04 GMT

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle brings you his analysis ahead of Friday's meeting at Newbury.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 GMT the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

NEWBURY - NOVEMBER 28

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £81.60 (7 favourites: 3 winners--1 placed--3 unplaced)

12.25 Paul Nicholls has saddled just nine runners in the last 12 renewals of this novice hurdle event,with four of the Ditcheat raiders having snared gold. OLD GUARD is the Nicholls representative this time around, with connections having most to fear from KAREZAX and MICK JAZZ from the powerful King and Fry yards respectively. Only Paul Nicholls saddled more winners at the three day fixture than Alan KIng (KAREZAK) last year and sure enough, Alan landed a treble on the first day of the meeting on Thursday.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 17 years, whilst 15 of the last 17 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less. 14 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

12.55 Seven-year-olds have won both contests to date with this year's trio of representatives holding toteplacepot claims, namely COMEONGINGER, WALKABOUT CREEK and (possibly) BERENGER. The trio is listed in order of preference but if the seven-year-olds are to be thwarted on this occasion, QUICK DECISSON could prove to be the culprit from the in form Philip Hobbs yard.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this conditional jockey’s event changed two years back when it was classed as a new race on the Newbury card. Only one of the three favourites has secured a toteplacepot position thus far.

1.30 All nine winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals whereby there are two ’qualifiers’ with ticks in both boxes. TULLYESKER HILL is the call accordingly, with JUNCTION FOURTEEN still likely to be included in the toteplacepot mix. Others to consider include MIDNIGHT OSCAR and REV IT UP.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners. This must be something of a record regarding these ‘Pertempts Qualifiers’!

2.05 Paul Nicholls was winning this race for the third time ion the last nine years with a five-year-old 12 months ago and sure enough, the trainer attempts to copy the move to winning effect with SAPHIR DU RHEU this time around. HORATIO HORNBLOWER is expected to offer most resistance with CONEYGREE surely needing this run following a 22 month break from the track.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 17 years, whilst the last 16 winners have scored at 10/1 or less. 17 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

2.40 Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record in this event having secured four of the last ten renewals. THE PAPARRAZI KID and LAMOOL are the vintage representatives on this occasion, whilst PENDRA, LOOSE CHIPS and SOUND INVESTMENT are three of any number of dangers in a competitive penultimate leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via the last 11 contests during which time, six of the 12 market leaders finished in the frame.

3.15 Five of the top trainers in the land contest this event and with Nicky Henderson (talking about the wet conditions at present) assuring us that he does not know how his runners are going to perform just now, it's anyone's guess as to how the finale might be played out. THOMAS BROWN, TEA FOR TWO and PORT MELON are expected to dominate the finish, the latter named raider having run well at Cheltenham last time out. A repeat of that effort could be good enough to secure victory here.

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot is a new race on the Newbury card.

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday

8--Paul Nicholls
5--Tim Vaughan
4--David Pipe
3--Nicky Henderson
2--Ben Case
2--Harry Fry
2--Chris Gordon
2--Philip Hobbs
2--Alan King
2--Charlie Longsdon
2--Nick Williams
1--Kim Bailey
1--Mark Bradstock
1--David Bridgwater
1--Rebecca Curtis
1--Kevin Frost
1--Tom George
1--Nigel Hawke
1--Paul Henderson
1--Mark Hoad
1--Caroline Keevil
1--Martin Keighley
1--Emma Lavelle
1--Richard Lee 1--Sophie Leech
1--Gary Moore
1--Willie Mullins
1--Fergal O'Brien
1--Pat Phelan
1--Suzy Smith
1--Ali Stronge
1--Laura Young
1--Paul Webber
1--Richard Woollacott

57 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1312 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £15,379.12 (5)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,310.08 (31)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £980.51 (140)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £495.22 (348)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £190.63 (389)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £71.95 (281)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.61 (118)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14
Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8
Sandown--£20,601.40--Saturday July 5
Redcar--£9,925.20--Tuesday September 9
Wetherby--£8,998.70--Friday October 31
Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9
Ripon--£6,876.30--Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat)--£6,810.90--Saturday August 16
Redcar--£5,730.00--Wednesday July 30
Bath--£5,358.00--Sunday October 19
Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11
Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22
Chester--£4,495.50--Saturday September 13
Redcar--£4,473.30--Tuesday November 4
Hamilton--£4,433.40--Friday August 22
Brighton--£4,086.10--Tuesday October 7
Wolverhampton--£3,703.10--Friday October 17
Doncaster (flat)--£3,701.90--Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW)--£3,620.50--Saturday June 28
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£3,201.20--Saturday October 11
Wetherby--£3,148.90--Thursday May 29
York--£3,065.20--Friday August 22
Bath--£3,032.20--Friday August 1
York--£2,892.80--Saturday June 14
Wincanton--£2,871.50--Thursday May 8
Yarmouth--£2,868.90--Monday April 21
Newmarket--£2,867.90--Thursday July 11
Fontwell--£2,743.60--Tuesday June 10
Salisbury--£2,701.70--Wednesday October 1
Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter--£2,507.80--Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July)--£2,433.40--Saturday August 2
Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17
Windsor--£2,390.20--Monday August 4
Fontwell--£2,374.70--Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22
Yarmouth--£2,176.60--Sunday August 24
Hamilton--£2,172.70--Monday September 29
Stratford--£2,142.70--Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1
Bath--£2,090.60--Wednesday June 25
Kempton (A/W)--£2,044.20--Thursday October 23
Brighton--£2,008.10--Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£217.38--276 meetings)
Kempton (£130.43--76 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)
Lingfield (£175.70--68 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£146.20--43 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£279.53--84 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£399.14--473 meetings)
Aintree (£474.38--7 meetings)
Ascot (£132.88--6 meetings)
Ayr (£330.61--11 meetings)
Bangor (£285.15--10 meetings)
Carlisle (£354.35--10 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89--7 meetings)
Catterick (£375.36--7 meetings)
Cheltenham (£3,606.70--14 meetings)
Chepstow (£156.08--12 meetings)
Doncaster (£293.37--8 meetings)
Exeter (£231.37--12 meetings)
Fakenham (£171.02--10 meetings)
Ffos Las (£297.21--15 meetings)
Fontwell (£381.67--18 meetings)
Haydock (£617.20--6 meetings)
Hexham (£369.37--13 meetings)
Huntingdon (£122.27--15 meetings)
Kelso (£291.00--11 meetings)
Kempton (£113.04--9 meetings)
Leicester (£320.89--6 meetings)
Lingfield (£134.30--2 meetings)
Ludlow (£125.44--12 meetings)
Market Rasen (£158.20--18 meetings)
Musselburgh (£300.11--8 meetings)
Newbury (£209.60--6 meetings)
Newcastle (£392.33--7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£203.77--18 meetings)
Perth (£262.16--16 meetings)
Plumpton (£222.35--11 meetings)
Sandown (£322.25--5 meetings)
Southwell (£529.73--17 meetings)
Sedgefield (£178.09--18 meetings)
Stratford (£346.15--17 meetings)
Taunton (£126.46--11 meetings)
Towcester (£101284--13 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£257.78--18 meetings)
Warwick (£625.96--9 meetings)
Wetherby (£873.69--15 meetings)
Wincanton (£347.34--14 meetings)
Worcester (£190.23--21 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90--1 meeting)
Haydock (£311.40--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £401.36 (1312 meetings) up to and including Wednesday November 26