Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: February 27 2015, 19:56 GMT

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis ahead of Saturday's meeting at Newbury.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of racing's most popular pool bet.

He'll post his overnight Placepot analysis here around 1700 GMT each day with final selections published at approximately 1000 GMT on race day.

NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 27

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £210.90 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

Newbury Selections

Race 1 (2.00pm): 3 (Sebastian Beach) & 2 (Brook)
Race 2 (2.30pm): 2 (Minella Rocco) & 4 (Royal Vacation)
Race 3 (3.00pm): 5 (Marie Des Anges), 4 (Crafty Roberto) & 6 (Paddy The Stout)
Race 4 (3.35pm): 3 (Truckers Darling), 8 (Winston Churchill) & 5 (Bandit Country)
Race 5 (4.10pm): 2 (Fourth Act), 3 (Vif Argent) & 5 (Mountain Of Mourne)
Race 6 (4.40pm): 3 (Obistar), 4 (Oficial Ben) & 6 (Easy Beesy)

2.00 Fancied horses tend to win this event (see stats below), even though market leaders boast less than a 20% win record in recent years. SEBASTIAN BEACH and BROOK have shown enough to suggest that a race of this nature should be within reach, albeit connections probably did not envisage a Newbury victory was on the horizon quite so soon. It would be surprising if both horses finished out of the frame given the (lack of) strength of opposition. Bishop Wulstan has shown some consistent form but the beaten favourite was a little disappointing last time out. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners. 14 of the last 16 winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

2.30 Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 7-4 via the 12 renewals to date and combined vintage representatives are 1/3 to extend the domination before the form book is assessed via six of the 'dead eight' declarations this time around. Seven-year-old LOCAL SHOW might be fancied to breach the trend though as a self confessed 'anorak' who relies on his stats to decent effect most the of time, MINELLA ROCCO and ROYAL VACATION are preferred.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three gold medallists.

3.00 10 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-4 or less which suggests that the six strong field in split in half if you believe the figures will have a bearing on the contest. The relevant trio is listed in order of preference, namely MARIE DES ANGERS, CRAFTY ROBERTO and PADDY THE STOUTE. The first named raider represents Anthony Haneyball who has saddled six of his 19 runners in February to winning effect at the time of writing, three of which have hailed from his last seven representatives.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last 16 renewals. 10 of the 18 'jollies' have reached the frame during the study period, using an exact (place) science as you will always find on these pages.

3.35 Eight-year-olds have won six of the 13 renewals to date, though seven-year-olds have weighed in with three victories during the last six years. The pick of the two eight-year-olds in the line up should prove to be TRUCKERS DARLING over Baroque Man. Don Cantillon's Flemensfirth mare will be ridden by Leighton Aspell who has ridden more winners (nine) that any other pilot for the trainer in the NH sector during the last five years. BANDIT COUNTRY and WINSTON CHURCHILL are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Six of the 14 favourites to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners--within the last six years). That said, all 14 winners have been returned at odds of 12/1 or less, as have all 34 horses which have claimed toteplacepot positions.

4.10 Six-year-olds come to the gig having won three of the last five renewals, whilst it's also worth noting that although the trio of six-year-olds were beaten two years ago, two individuals snared silver and bronze medals at 12/1 and 11/2. Three of the seven entries represent the vintage this time around, with FOURTH ACT hopefully proving to be the pick of the trio. The other pair could create a 1-2-3 clean sweep of the main prizes, namely MOUNTAIN OF MOURNE and VIF ARGENT.

'favourite factor': Favourites have won five of the 13 renewals to date, whilst nine of the 16 market leaders finished in the frame.

4.40 The aggregate stats of David Pipe (OBISTAR), Jonjo O'Neill (OFICIAL BEN) and Warren Greatrex (EASY BEESY) during the last fortnight stood at 26/80 before Thursday's sport was contested. The relevant 32.5% strike rate compares oh so favourably to the combined figures of 1/58 via the other seven represented trainers. The case for the prosecution is overwhelming if you believe in trends/figures/common sense!

'favourite factor': The toteplacepot finale is a new race on the Newbury card.

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday

5--Jonjo O'Neill
4--David Pipe
3--Warren Greatrex
3--Anthony Honeyball
3--Alan King
3--Ben Pauling
3--Venetia Williams
2--Paul Henderson
2--Colin Tizzard
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies
1--Brian Barr
1--Linda Blackford
1--Don Cantillon
1--Mick Channon
1--Henry Daly
1--Robin Dickin
1--Johnny Farrelly
1--Harry Fry
1--Tom George
1--Alex Hales
1--Nigel Hawke
1--Lawney Hill
1--Sophie Leech
1--Charlie Mann
1--Donald McCain
1--Graeme McPherson
1--Gary Moore
1--Neil Mulholland
1--Pat Murphy
1--Sir Mark Prescott
1--Tim Vaughan
1--Lucy Wadham
1--Paul Webber
1--Harry Whittington
1--Noel Williams
1--Peter Winks
1--Richard Woollacott

59 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (179 meetings):
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £847.71 (6)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £270.13 (14)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £380.66 (43)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £166.79 (63)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £68.33 (42)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £20.14 (11)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£271.84--74 meetings)
Chelmsford (£621.67--8 meetings)

Kempton (£139.76--10 meetings)

Lingfield (£166.32--21 meetings)
Southwell (£443.73--13 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£204.68--22 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£163.41--105 meetings)
Ascot (£200.90--2 meetings)
Ayr (£183.62--5 meetings)
Bangor (£82.37--3 meetings)
Carlisle (£151.20--1 meeting)
Catterick (£71.99--5 meetings)
Cheltenham (£76.15--2 meetings)
Chepstow (£56.53--3 meetings)
Doncaster (£120.15--4 meetings)
Exeter (£75.82--4 meetings)
Fakenham (£68.68--4 meetings)
Ffos Las (£131.52--4 meetings)
Fontwell (£17.85--2 meetings)
Haydock (£621.75--2 meetings)
Huntingdon (£131.17--3 meetings)
Kelso (£82.85--2 meetings)
Kempton (£127.06--3 meetings)
Leicester (£81.40--4 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65--2 meetings)
Ludlow (£210.43--4 meetings)
Market Rasen (£399.45--2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40--6 meetings)
Newbury (£367.25--2 meetings)
Newcastle (£113.25--4 meetings)
Plumpton (£323.64--5 meetings)
Sandown (£349.20--3 meetings)
Sedgefield (£38.67--3 meetings)
Southwell (£31.00--1 meeting)
Taunton (£424.26--5 meetings)
Towcester (£6.20--1 meeting)
Uttoxeter (£1,068.45--2 meetings)
Warwick (£262.17--3 meetings)
Wetherby (£94.03--4 meetings)
Wincanton (£105.64--5 meetings)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £216.78 (179 meetings) up to and including Wednesday February 25