Chance Clarence in the Cup
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Wednesday's stanjames.com Chester Cup and picks out the key statistics.
- Winners have been aged four (2), five (2), six (4) and seven (2).
- Winners have carried between 8-1 and 9-6 with the last seven between 8-11 and 9-4.
- Winners have been rated between 85 and 103 with eight between 90 and 99.
- Nine winners were making their first appearance of the Flat season, five had their most recent start over hurdles.
- Only two favourites have been successful with a further four placed, including joint & co favs.
- Winners have been priced between 2/1 and 33s with seven at 14/1 or less,
- Six winners were drawn in single figures.
- Seven winners led, were always prominent or tracked the leaders.
- Six winners had previous experience of the course; four of whom had run in the race previously.
Nothing can be discounted in terms of age, rating or weight but a low drawn, fancied, front runner has long been the ideal candidate for this contest.
Both Mubaraza and Angel Gabrial were held-up when filling the first two places at Ripon but the latter, in particular, merits respect given Richard Fahey's fine record in the race. He saddled the first two home last year, a feat that Donald McCain managed 12 months earlier and it would be no surprise to see Mawaqeet go well on debut for the Cholmondeley handler.
It's by no means impossible to win from a high draw and Open Eagle could go well at a price if the hood has the desired effect as he has been ridden handily in the past and looked promising when first arriving on these shores but a chance is taken with Duke Of Clarence who makes his debut for Fahey and at the course.
He showed some decent form in staying handicaps at Goodwood for Richard Hannon in the second half of last season but is still relatively unexposed at the trip and, given his owner, it's not unreasonable to think that he might have been purchased with this race in mind.