Rock solid claims
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of the Hennessy Gold Cup and picks out the key statistics.
- Winners have been aged six (3), seven (5), eight and nine.
- Winners have carried between 10-0 and 11-12 with three defying top-weight and three carrying between 10-0 and 10-5.
- Winners have been rated between 140 and 174 with six between 146 and 160.
- Winners have been priced between 9/4 and 25/1 with four favourites (including one joint) successful; two other favourites were placed.
- Seven winners finished in the first three on their preceding start but three of the last five finished PU, F, 6.
- Four of the last seven winners had their preceding start in the RSA Chase where they finished PU, 1, 1, 1.
- Seven winners had won a chase at Grade Three level or above, including the last six.
- Five winners had won a Grade One or Two contest over hurdles.
- Eight winners had run no more than 12 times in chases, winning at least half of their starts.
- All of the winners had finished first or second over three miles.
- Seven of the nine winners to have previously run at Newbury had been successful.
- Seven winners were in their first or second season over fences.
- Five winners were making their handicap chase bow, two were having their second handicap start having finished 1,1 on their handicap debut.
Younger legs have held sway with Denman the only winner aged older than eight and that exceptional chaser was also the highest rated winner by some considerable margin (174, next highest 161).
The field can quickly be whittled down to just a handful of contenders by focusing on those with winning form at Grade Three level and above.
Everything looks to be in place for a big run from Lord Windermere although this has not been a kind race to Irish trainers with just two winners in over 50 years. In contrast, Paul Nicholls has won three times in this period and relies upon Grade Two hurdle winner Rocky Creek who may be able to make the most of the weight that he receives from his market rival.