Malcolm Boyle's Placepot picks
Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.
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His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 GMT the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.
KEMPTON - JANUARY 19
Average toteplacepot dividend at Kempton (flat) in 2006: £770.29 (54 meetings)-in 2007: £481.99 (62 meetings)--in 2008: £296.68 (96 meetings in total--NH & flat)--in 2008: £296.68 (96 meetings)--in 2009: £474.14 (85 A/W meetings)--in 2010: £510.76 (86 A/W meetings)--in 2011: £ 316.60 (87 A/W meetings)--in 2011: £ 316.60 (87 A/W meetings)--in 2012: £169.87 (87 A/W meetings)
1.55 Five of the last six available toteplacepot positions were secured by horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more and my trio against the field via seven 'qualifiers' on this occasion consists of CAPTAIN KENDALL. AMETHYST DAWN and beaten favourite PAPERETTO.
'Kempton factor': As well as the stats and facts from the previous corresponding races, I will add the same comments I offered for Saturday's card relating to recent races at Kempton. Two of the four favourites in this event have secured toteplacepot positions via three renewals, albeit we still await the first successful market leader.
2.25 FAST SAMURAI (not beaten far in his last two defeats) could run well at rewarding odds here with Tony Carroll having saddled four winners during the last few weeks. Others to consider include the evergreen (nine-year-old) course and distance winner TEEN AGER, GEORGEBERNARDSHAW and ISHI.
'toteplacepot and Kempton factors': Last year's inaugural even-money favourite finished out of the frame. Eight of the 28 recent races during the study period relating to Kempton were won by market leaders, seven of which were clear favourites alongside a 7/2 co-favourite of three. Two odds-on chances obliged (4/6 & 4/7) alongside market leaders which both won at 7/4.
2.55 I find it difficult to leave course and distance scorers NOLECCE and IRENE KENNET out of the toteplacepot mix here, fully expecting one of them to land the price from a win perspective. CELTIC CHARLIE could 'complete the frame' though I doubt that Pat Phelan's eight-year-old will be able to live with the aforementioned selections when push comes to shove inside the last furlong. The first-named pair are the only horses in the line-up boasting recent winning form lines.
'toteplacepot and Kempton factors': Last year's inaugural 13/8 market leader finished second, four lengths adrift of the 8/1 winner. 24 of the 28 recent winners at Kempton scored at odds of 9/1 or less, the other four gold medallists being returned at 16/1-16/1-14/1-10/1.
3.25 Talking of recent winning form lines, NURSE DOMINATRIX is the only horse in the field to boast such claims in this event, with connections possibly having most to fear from the likes of ESTEEM and LIBERTY LOVE. The four-year-old Whipper filly (love the name!) makes her Kempton debut here but she was getting to grips with the all-weather surfaces before failing to cope with the Doncaster ground last time out.
'toteplacepot and Kempton factors': This is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the same toteplacepot statistic applies. The trainers of the four successful outsiders during the recent study period were Tony Carroll (16/1), Paul Burgoyne (16/1), Jamie Osborne (14/1) and Phil McEntee (10/1).
3.55 Gary Moore saddled four consecutive winners last week if taking both codes of the sport into account and course scorer WINNING SPARK could carry on the good work on behalf of the yard from an each-way perspective. PURPLE 'N GOLD and ROWAN RIDGE sit either side of the Theatrical gelding in the handicap and the 'heavy players' amongst you will argue that these two horses have more chance of winning the contest.
'toteplacepot and Kempton factors': Three of the four favourites (via three contests) secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one successful market leader. The biggest-priced winner to date was returned at 9/2. Five trainers have saddled two winners during the recent study period with the other 18 races being won by handlers who secured one gold medallist apiece.
4.25 The terms and conditions of this event suggest that PISCEAN is well treated ahead of ANACONDA and CHAPTER AND VERSE. Tom Keddy's course and distance winners has run four times at this venue, securing two gold and one silver medal in the process.
'toteplacepot and factors': Last year's inaugural 13/8 favourite finished half a length outside the toteplacepot frame when securing the bronze medal in a 'short field' event. The five trainers who saddled a brace during the afore mentioned recent period were Hans Adielsson (9/2 & 7/4), Simon Dow (3/1 & 7/4*), Tony Carroll (16/1 & 6/1), Phil McEntee (10/1 & 6/1) and David Evans (3/1 & 9/4).
Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2013:
Sedgefield--£4,761.40--Friday January 11
Lingfield (NH)--£1,679.10--Tuesday January 15
Kelso--£1,364.50--Sunday January 12
Kempton (A/W)--£1,129.40--Monday January 7
Lingfield (A/W)--£1,063.50--Wednesday January 2
Wolverhampton--£1,009.60--Friday January 11
Wolverhampton--£712.50--Thursday January 3
Fakenham--£657.50--Tuesday January 1
Lingfield (A/W)--£502.00--Saturday January 12
2013 Average toteplacepot dividends (up to and including Friday January 18) - A-Z racecourse guide:
Total A/W meetings (£235.04--28 dividends via 27 meetings)
Kempton (£316.69--5 meetings)
Lingfield (£247.43--9 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£197.94--14 dividends via 13 meetings)
Total NH meetings (£307.30--31 meetings)
Ayr (£30.50--2 meetings)
Catterick (£9.15--2 meetings)
Chepstow (£55.80--2 meetings)
Doncaster (£247.10--1 meeting)
Exeter (£27.80--1 meeting)
Fakenham (£657.50--1 meeting)
Ffos Las (£319.50--1 meeting)
Huntingdon (£43.70--1 meeting)
Kelso (£1364.50--1 meeting)
Kempton (£79.70--1 meeting)
Leicester (£193.10--1 meeting)
Lingfield (£615.27--3 meetings)
Ludlow (£220.20--1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£75.45--2 meetings)
Newbury (£13.80--1 meeting)
Newcastle (£71.00--1 meeting)
Plumpton (£178.85--2 meetings)
Sandown (£159.20--1 meeting)
Sedgefield (£4761.40--1 meeting)
Taunton (£3.10--1 meeting)
Warwick (£291.60--1 meeting)
Wetherby (£19.10--1 meeting)
Wincanton (£21.30--2 meetings)
The average toteplacepot dividend in 2013 stands at £289.75 (59 dividends via 58 meetings) up to and including Friday January 18.