Saphir River can clean up

  • By: Ian Ogg
  • Last Updated: November 24 2012, 10:36 GMT

We analyse all seven renewals of Saturday's Betfair. Don't Settle For Less 'Fixed Brush' Handicap Hurdle and pick out the key statistics.

Peter Buchanan: Gets the leg up on Saphir River

  • Three winners have been aged seven, two six and two five.
  • Winners have been priced between 6/4 and 25/1, including three favourites - two further favourites were placed.
  • Winners have carried between 10-2 and 11-12 with two defying top-weight.
  • Winners have been rated between 132 and 156 with five between 132 and 141.
  • Three winners won their preceding start, all in the current season.
  • Five winners had won at least a third of their starts.
  • Four of the winners had won over three miles, the exceptions (the last three) had yet to race over the trip.

Summary

A race in its infancy after just seven renewals, only five of which have been over the brush hurdles but there has been no winner aged older than seven so it seems reasonable to ignore those aged eight and over which rules out almost half the field.

At the other end of the spectrum, David Pipe has won the last two renewals with five year olds and French import Katkeau has been at the head of the market since the betting opened. He could turn out to be well handicapped but he's rated significantly lower than any winner of this race and it may pay to look higher up the weights in a race where class has come to the fore.

A quartet of Trustan Times, Saphir River, Knight Pass and Sivola De Sivola appeal most although none fit all of the criteria. The latter should come on for his seasonal reappearance while Knight Pass may have benefited from a change of scenery but there's already evidence to suggest that Saphir River has done so and Lucinda Russell's charge - who has been placed over three miles in France - gets the nod.


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