O'Brien victory is par for the course
We analyse the last ten renewals of the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday and pick out the key statistics.
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- Six winners won their preceding start.
- Nine winners had won over at least seven furlongs, six of whom had won over a mile. The exception was a maiden.
- In addition to the six horses already successful over a mile, a further three had finished in the first three. The exception hadn't run over a mile.
- Only three winners were unbeaten, of whom, only one had raced more than once.
- Four winners made their debut before August and two of those appeared in the last 11 days of July.
- Montjeu has sired four of the last eight winners.
- Four winners were having their first start in a Group race.
- No winner had had more than four starts.
- No winner had been beaten more than twice.
- Seven favourites have been successful.
Camelot became the third winner to take this Group One contest on his second career start (two had won on debut) and stablemate Kingsbarns (selected from six Aidan O'Brien entries) will attempt to become the fourth and justify connections stumping up the supplementary fee on Monday.
O'Brien has saddled three winners in the past decade and six in total while Montjeu has been the pre-eminent sire. The late stallion isn't directly represented but he is the sire of Hurricane Run whose own son, First Cornerstone, became the stallion's first Group Two winner when winning the Futurity and will now attempt to become his first top flight winner on his first attempt at a mile, a trip which should obviously suit.
Steeler has already won over a mile but has had more starts than any other winner in the past decade although, in fairness to the Raven's Pass colt, he has improved with every outing and is a typically tough representative of his yard. The same could also be true of Trading Leather but he has been described as "very much ground dependent" and conditions don't seem likely to be in his favour.
Dutch Art's progeny have shown a liking for soft ground and that was the going description when the other supplementary entry, Van Der Neer, won at Leicester and he is related to a 10f winner but the market has got this race more often than not of late and is taken to do so again.