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Picture Denman - can defy big weight.

DENMAN TO DELIVER AGAIN

By Simon Holt

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BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
2pts Denman at 4/1 (general) 1440 Newbury. Brilliant in this two years ago - can do the same again.
1pt Killyglen at 8/1 (general) at 1440 Newbury Potential improver who will like the ground.

Saturday's feature race is the Hennessy Gold Cup, always one of the highlights of the National Hunt season, and all eyes are Denman. Can he defy 11st 12lb to win the race for a second time?

Paul Nicholls' star carried the same burden two years ago but is off a higher handicap mark here - although a lower one than he took into last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup.

He was rated 182 when beaten by Kauto Star and now races off 174. Denman ran very well indeed there - given the troubled campaign he'd endured.

He then fell at Aintree when upsides Madison Du Berlais when perhaps feeling the effects of the Gold Cup run - but cast your mind back to his win in 2007.

Denman dominated from the front and it was one of the great Hennessy performances. There's no doubting if he's back to that level then he's capable of giving the weight all round again.

Another former Hennessy winner, State Of Play, has been catching the eye of one or two value tipsters and he races off the same mark as when previously winning this race.

Evan Williams' charge ran well to finish fourth behind Mon Mome in the Grand National in the spring and often runs well fresh.

What A Friend is a rare ride for Sam Thomas for the Paul Nicholls stable. He had some useful novice chase form but was well beaten in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham and needs to run much better here.

I'd have more respect for Barbers Shop, who ran well for a long way in the Gold Cup before ultimately finishing a long way adrift of Denman. He does get an 18 pounds pull at the weights but there are doubts over his stamina.

I rate Killyglen the main danger to Denman. He is probably the most upwardly mobile runner in the race. A smart novice chaser who beat Shining Gale at Aintree, he returned at Carlisle and ran as if needing the race.

He was probably attempting the impossible in trying to concede 16 pounds to Knockara Beau, who has since run well at Cheltenham, with Chief Dan George fully 29 lengths back in third.

That was a good effort and I expect Killyglen to like the ground on Saturday.

Gone To Lunch could run well in a Hennessy. He was second in last year's Scottish National and is sure to be thereabouts while My Will gets a 17 pounds swing with Denman from the Gold Cup and is sure to run his race.

In conclusion, if Denman is back to his best he can carry the weight to victory. I take him to do that - with a saver suggested on Killyglen.

Binocular reappears in the WBX.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and it's a terrific renewal.

Nicky Henderson's charge finished third in the Champion Hurdle last season but lines of form through Celestial Halo suggest he wasn't quite at his best that day.

He will need to be here to cope with Solwhit, a winner at Aintree and Punchestown last season and who returned to quicken well and beat Muirhead and Hurricane Fly on his reappearance.

Of the others, Al Eile is a triple winner of the big hurdle at Aintree, Sublimity is a former Champion Hurdler and Go Native won the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham.

It's a wonderful renewal of the race and I expect Binocular to justify favouritism.

  • Preview posted at 1425 GMT on 27/11/2009.

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