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Picture St Nicholas Abbey - sensational, but...

ST NIC: DERBY YES, GUINEAS NO

By Ben Linfoot

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Let's get one thing straight. He was brilliant wasn't he? Travelled like a dream, cruised to the lead and accelerated like a Ferrari. Vrooooom. Bye bye Sea The Stars, hello St Nicholas Abbey. Two horses of the century in two years. 6/1 for the 2000 Guineas and the Derby? Yes please. He's the best two-year-old by a country mile.

But hang on a minute. He was brilliant, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. 6/1 for the 2000 Guineas and the Derby? Sea The Stars was a freak, the first in 20 years to complete such a double. That rare blend of speed and stamina at the highest of levels couldn't come along again so quickly, could it?

I very much doubt it, and 3/1 for the 2000 Guineas is a huge over-reaction. Putting things into perspective, St Nicholas Abbey showed a lightning turn of foot against a bunch of very good horses, but horses bred to come into their own over middle-distances as three-year-olds. It's not as if he's burned off a bunch of precocious juvenile speedsters.

His sire Montjeu is such an influence of stamina I find it hard to believe he'll have the speed for a Guineas. The two-year-old picture may have looked a little cloudy before the Racing Post Trophy, but don't believe the Guineas has been cracked after one stunning run. I'd much rather be a layer at 3s with six months and a bunch of under-estimated potential milers on my side.

I just think something better bred for the job will emerge out of the dark winter months by the time we get to Newmarket in May. Only one horse in history has done the Racing Post Trophy-2000 Guineas double when High Top won both races in 1971-72. The Doncaster Group One is, of course, better known as a breeding ground for future Derby heroes.

High Chaparral, Motivator and Authorized all won the RP Trophy before the Derby the following June and this looks a much more attainable target for Aidan O'Brien's charge. Montjeu sired the last two mentioned and St Nicholas Abbey could well become his third English Derby winner - even though it's seven months away his credentials are solid and I'd prefer to back him at 3/1 for the June Classic than take the same price for the Guineas.

You don't need to be a genius to work out that those in behind St Nic on Saturday will have it all to do if they meet him again next season, but stranger things have happened given time and a change in circumstances. Even if you don't believe different ground conditions, longer trips or another course could see those beaten reverse the form, there was plenty to like about one or two left toiling in the winner's wake.

Coordinated Cut was the big disappointment, but those who filled the places, Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir, look very smart indeed and there is much for connections of the two colts to look forward to. Elusive Pimpernel, in particular, looks a really nice prospect for next year and he is the sort to develop after another winter under his belt.

Middle-distances look to be his game for 2010, but even accounting for physical development, another half mile and likely fast ground at Epsom next June, it seems inconceivable he could beat St Nicholas Abbey on Saturday's evidence. That he is the second-favourite for the Derby, albeit at 20/1, says everything about the impression the winner made on Town Moor.

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